Noonan and Kenny playing a blinder on Greece

[Duke of Marmalade]

N&K faced 3 possible strategies following Syriza's gaining power in Greece.

1) Be on their side asking for a debt conference - this would surely have been the SF approach. That would have been a disaster, it would have signalled that we too might not be able to honour our debts - our cost of borrowing would have jumped.

2) Say nuffin' and hope the Greeks get something which we would piggy back on. Dan O'Brien, now of the Sindo, criticises them for not following this course which he says would be a more flexible position. Dan is usually right but not this time.

3) The strategy they actually took was to out hawk Schauble - claiming people should stick by the program, accusing the Greeks of being tax dodgers etc. Greece is too far away to launch a military attack so this was safe positioning It was also very cunning and not as Dan claims "kowtowing". Confirms our reputation as being people who pay their debts underpinning our very low borrowing rates. But also, IMHO if Greece get some major concession we would be in a better position to cry "foul, unfair". By following strategy 2 we would be implying that the Greek cause had some special merit and we would be less well positioned to object to a unique deal being cut for Greece.

Bravo to N&K for taking this shrewd stance. In any event it is right for the rest of the EZ including Ireland to take no nonsense from the Greek shinners.

As I said, it's precisely in adult situations like this that SF would behave like schoolboys and make a total disgrace of themselves and Ireland. FF would be more reliable but SF/FF with Grisly as Teashop

 

[Betsy Og]

If we were ever to get our own special deal it would have been at the outset, the one point in history when the Shinners might have done us some service. Was it not FF who signed us up with the Troika??, they way people are baiting FG you'd think it was they.

Not helpful that ex-Troikers (IMF chap) today tells us that we rolled over too easily, us "heroes" don't want our noses rubbed in it, I want to never again hear about that whole gut wrenching episode!!

The real galling thing is that it gives oxygen to the Shinners and all the other nut jobs, SF the most popular party in Ireland I heard this morning, nearly crashed my S-Class . I dunno, it was different in my day ..... (& I'm under 40!!).

 

[TarfHead]

Too soon to say, better to engage in this in March after the end-Feb deadline has passed. It would appear that in this game of poker, the Syriza principals, Tsipras & Varoufakis, have blinked first.

 

[gillarosa]

in the 'how long is a piece of string' Economics, regardless of what these former School Teachers believe in their brief knowledge of the subject, the Greeks can't repay the level of debt they have and won't. In the 'I wont give in first' school of politics, this will endure for two weeks or so and a compromise will be reached, irregardless Irish taxpayer wont get a break because we have no one who holds our interest in any esteem most especially the gentlemen of this threads title.

 

[Delboy]

Confirms our reputation as being people who pay their debts

And what a reputation to have, especially when you consider the nature of those same debts!

 

[Betsy Og]

Irish taxpayer wont get a break because we have no one who holds our interest in any esteem most especially the gentlemen of this threads title.

Is there a risk of confusing being happy about the situation (none of us are),and doing what's best for the country (unpalatable as that may seem). We'd all love to give 2 fingers to everyone we owe money to, and bring Seanie & David Drumm to the gallows etc, but it aint going to happy. "We are where we are", famously, and now we're at the point where borrowing costs are on the floor, the economy is coming around, employment is growing, exchequer figures are going the right direction. So basically now is not the time to chuck it all away, the satisfaction we'd get from 'having our day' would seem hollow as the tumbleweed returned. AFAICS Greece is an unsustainable system full stop, I cannot see how it can work out for them (and I wish them well) if everyone is to be highly paid by the State, retires early and pays no tax. Sure we'd all love to play with our grandkids from age 50 on, but the numbers just dont add up, and your 'culture' aint fixing that.

 

[Sunny]

But everyone knew the Greek culture when they poured billions into Government and bank bonds. Everyone knew the Greek culture when they were allowed to enter the Euro in the first place despite not meeting the criteria for membership. Of course, Greece needs to reform. So does Italy and France. The difference is that Greece (and possibly Ireland) is sitting on a pile of unsustainable debt. It might well be our own fault. We might have been stupid and reckless and corrupt but people still lent us the money because they like us thought the good times would never end. Well they did. The difference is that ordinary people are made pay the price (and there is no way around that) while the so called professional risk takers are spared the pain. Until Berlin and Brussels cop on that like the Latin American crisis, there will be no change in economic performance until the debt is dealt with, we will continue to go around in circles. The arguments that Berlin made in the 1950's to get billions in debt relief are exactly the same that Greece are making now. However, the Germans seem to convieniently forget about this when lecturing other countries about taking the pain.
Greece is a basket case but having been there recently, the suffering of ordinary people makes the last 8 years in Ireland look like the Celtic Tiger. That is not sustainable. I don't care if the politicians are left wing or right wing. Greece is on the verge of a breakdown in society. And Europe will pay a heavy price if that happens.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The arguments that Berlin made in the 1950's to get billions in debt relief are exactly the same that Greece are making now. However, the Germans seem to convieniently forget about this when lecturing other countries about taking the pain.

Germany had massive debts because it started and fought two World wars. Greece has massive debts because it persists in the false Utopia which Betsy Og has described so well.

The problem with debt forgiveness is moral hazard. Ironically there was far less moral hazard in forgiving Germany its war debts. Germany was not going to uses its new found borrowing powers to start another war - that particular route was closed off by emasculating Germany militarily. Now if you forgive Greece its debts not only will it never learn its lesson and will continue to sponge off the rest of us, the other basket cases will be lining up to have a piece of the same action.

 

[Purple]

the suffering of ordinary people makes the last 8 years in Ireland look like the Celtic Tiger. That is not sustainable. I don't care if the politicians are left wing or right wing. Greece is on the verge of a breakdown in society. And Europe will pay a heavy price if that happens.

I agree but even if all the debt was written off today they would still be screwed. Fixing their public sector pay bill, retirement age, pension rates, pension transferability, semi-state pay and pensions, lack of tax compliance, general corruption and crappy state infrastructure are gargantuan tasks that will take decades. Even if they had no debt now they would have to run up massive debt levels to correct structural problems of that scale.
I'm glad we are not Greece!

 

[Firefly]

I think the best outcome for all would be a Grexit where Greece default on their debts. The ECB is starting QE anyway and I'm sure there's bit of magic that could be done here to shovel some of that freshly minted coin to offset this default. The EU would be stronger and it would send a message to Spain, Portugal, Italy and us that if we want to default then we're out, ie no moral hazard. The markets would surge on the news IMO as it offers stability. For the Greeks, well they get a clean sheet and can return to what their good at: tourism & olive oil and export both at favourable exchange rates. It can't get much worse for them anyway. As Purple metioned, any reforms needed will take decades and is therefore IMO not going to happen. Better for all of us if they have their own currency and let them work away.

 

[blueband]

I think the best outcome for all would be a Grexit where Greece default on their debts. The ECB is starting QE anyway and I'm sure there's bit of magic that could be done here to shovel some of that freshly minted coin to offset this default. The EU would be stronger and it would send a message to Spain, Portugal, Italy and us that if we want to default then we're out, ie no moral hazard. The markets would surge on the news IMO as it offers stability. For the Greeks, well they get a clean sheet and can return to what their good at: tourism & olive oil and export both at favourable exchange rates. It can't get much worse for them anyway. As Purple metioned, any reforms needed will take decades and is therefore IMO not going to happen. Better for all of us if they have their own currency and let them work away.

im not a betting man, but I would put money on Greece staying in EU.

 

[Sunny]

I agree but even if all the debt was written off today they would still be screwed. Fixing their public sector pay bill, retirement age, pension rates, pension transferability, semi-state pay and pensions, lack of tax compliance, general corruption and crappy state infrastructure are gargantuan tasks that will take decades. Even if they had no debt now they would have to run up massive debt levels to correct structural problems of that scale.
I'm glad we are not Greece!

I stand to be corrected but I think you will find that Greece are running a bigger primary surplus than us and have a lower budget deficit when banking costs are omitted. The issue is debt. Of course Greece are to blame but so are the people who continuously lent them money. These are the so called professional risk takers. Why is just the Greek public that are expected to pay the price?

It's the same with Ireland. People go on about moral hazard but there are people now pouring billions into Ireland at rates less than what the USA or the UK can borrow at. Even when we have huge debt levels and running huge budget deficit. Why are they doing that? It is because they know taxpayer will be asked to save the 'system'.

 

[Leo]

I stand to be corrected but I think you will find that Greece are running a bigger primary surplus than us and have a lower budget deficit when banking costs are omitted.

Can anyone trust the Greek numbers anymore though? It's clear they lied in order to get access to much of the funding they have received, and the trouble with trying to tie it all back to the professional risk takers is they have already cashed their bonuses, it's the pension and investment funds they were buying on behalf of who will take the hit.

 

[Leper]

You know what, I've had it in for the Greeks for years for the following reasons which happened us on holidays:-

1. The Ol' Collapsing Shelf Trick:- You bring your kids to a turistic shop to buy a few postcards, thimbles etc and the "innocent looking elderly"Greek lady near the cash till pulls a piece of string and a shelf collapses as you pass it. You know you or yours did not touch the shelf and you are landed with the price of a few broken glass trinkets. You refuse to pay up and then are threatened with the local police who come and for a quiet life you pay. Great Greek Scam which I saw played out on a couple of visits to different shops.

2. The Tablecloths in the boot Trick:- You drive into the mountains and see a Craft Shop and you stop. They even give you free tea (or whatever it is they drink) and they show you several crocheted table cloths and other stuff. You decide not to buy and when you return to your hotel the police call later with the shop owner making an accusation that you left the shop without paying. You are brought to your car and Presto! there is craft shop stuff in the boot. You look on amazed and you have no option but to pay. This did not happen to me, but I saw a UK couple scammed this way.

So, I am not surprised that the Greeks won't pay up. My experience with them has not been good being made to leave an apartment with four young kids at 8.00am on our last day of holidays when we were being collected 12 hours later by the tour bus. We nearly fried in the sun. I don't care if Greece is thrown out of the EU. In fact, I hope they are!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Leper what about the Big Wooden Horse Trick The Romans were on to them:

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes

 

[cork]

This government promised debt reduction.

They said they delivered with regards to "game changers".

Kenny was the person who wanted to extend the bank gaurentee to foriegn banks operating here.

Facts are they have been hapless with regards to debt reduction.

 

[Betsy Og]

Talking to a buddy of mine over the weekend, worked for about 8 different Greek guys in Australia - v angry people in his experience (jarred with the feckless Mediterranean image, not in a good way though....)

 

[Betsy Og]

Facts are they have been hapless with regards to debt reduction.

Well, short of wielding a magic wand - which SF are holding hostage in a cattle shed somewhere on the border - the debt was never going to just evaporate. It has been refinanced at historically low rates (why?, because public finances are returning to normal). We have our chances with 'game changers' but like Chorizo, or whatever they call themselves, reality is dawning on the naive bluster beloved of the left in Ireland. Money never sleeps, & has no conscience - if you present yourself as a basket case (e.g. Greece, or Ireland if under SF) then the markets will treat you as such ..... and that's not good.........

 

[Conan]

Betsy Og, I think that magic wand is what SF supporters use to launder diesel?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Henda keeps giving. He is leading the attack against the Greek shinners. Apparently the new Greek foreign minister threatened to open his Turkish borders to let millions of immigrants including jihadists (his words) to flood Europe and especially Berlin. I wonder if Ireland threatened to give out EU passports to ISIS would we get a deal on bank capitalisations.:mad: