"No one wants an election!"

D

Dan Murray

Guest
I had resigned myself to losing my bet on a 2017 election - but with the hardy annuals of the gardaí, the Department of Justice and politicians being politicians, it seems that there may be a final twist in the road.

General serious question: what qualities does one need to be a successful senior politician in Ireland? I've my own views but would be interested in hearing those of others!!
 
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Dan Murray said:
what qualities does one need to be a successful senior politician in Ireland?
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1) A desperate desire to be liked.

2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.

3) A fondness for turning up at funerals where nobody knows you.

4) The brass neck to resist calls to resign in the face of overwhelming evidence of incompetence.
 
Dan Murray said:
I had resigned myself to losing my bet on a 2017 election - but with the gardaí, the Department of Justice and politicians being politicians, it seems that there may be a final twist in the road.
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2017 GE down to 5/4 with PP but still 2018 is favourite. All the same such an inspired run from way behind should be brought to the attention of the stewards - look for strange betting trends etc.

The really fascinating contest is what will be the next government. Selected PP odds:

FG Minority 4/1 favourite
FG Independents 5/1
FG/FF 6/1
FF Minority 7/1
FF Independents 7/1
FF/SF 7/1
FG/Labour 14/1
FF/Labour 18/1

It is hard to see SF or Labour being in the picture so rule them out.
My feeling is that FG will improve their position. The forthcoming Brexit showdown will play into Leo's hands - no way he can back down now. Presumably with a breakdown in confidence it is hardly credible FF would renew a confidence and supply situation. A FF/FG coalition seems further away than after the last GE.

All the possibilities start to rule themselves out. All the same there is money to be made here by the shrewd political punter. Any clues folks?

Everybody is running around saying they don't want a GE, the people don't want a GE. Jayz, I love GEs; I suppose it is the appeal of blood sports:)
 
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dub_nerd said:
1) A desperate desire to be liked.

2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.

3) A fondness for turning up at funerals where nobody knows you.

4) The brass neck to resist calls to resign in the face of overwhelming evidence of incompetence.
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5) The ability to jump on a high horse at every opportunity if it is at the expense of a political opponent.

6) The ability to avoid the facts and throw in strawman arguments when trying to advance your opinion.

FF have a lot to answer for if they really believe this is a reason worth bringing the government down over and I for one, while I would rather there not be a general election, will make sure my opinion of their behaviour is registered in my vote.
 
Two anecdotes on these.

dub_nerd said:
2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.
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I was in hotel lobby once with a couple who had been involved in a successful grant application for a local Drama group. In walks a local politician. "oh isn't it wonderful we got the grant, I worked so hard on it, its great to see all my efforts pay off". The wife (chairperson of the Drama group and chief organised of the grant application) turns to the husband and says, quite sincerely, "who was that?".

dub_nerd said:
3) A fondness for turning up at funerals where nobody knows you.
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A friend's grandfather died. He had lived in the area all his life and had been principal of the national school for many years. Huge funeral. Local TD arrives, meets and greets all and sundry. After a while he sees my friend, they had been in school together. "oh how are you, its great to see someone I actually know at one of these bloody funerals, this is the third one I have been at today." Grieving grandchild is dumbstruck.
 
I can't understand why FF are forcing this rather than just abstaining... I think Fitzgerald should go, cos she's a useless waste of space, a merely placewoman who cares about position rather than her responsibilities.
But I would have thought FF would wait for a bigger FG own goal before pulling the plug.
 
Just saw Leo being interviewed on RTE news. He stated so many times that he didn't want an election that he left me in no doubt that he most certainly does want an election. Where I did believe him was when he said that if there must be an election it must be before Xmas, so that 5/4 a 2017 GE looks a very good bet.
 
Putting up posters in the rain, canvassing in the cold dark evenings, having to put in a hard slog on the campaign trail so close to xmas, annoyed voters who believe there was no need for an election over an issue like this leading to small turnout thereby favouring protest parties...FF/FG will be mad to call an election this side of April
 
There can be little doubt that the problem here is with FF!

If we take it that the majority of voters would prefer not to have an election, what do they want?
- FF* to continue the confidence and supply arrangement when they say that they do not have confidence in the Tánaiste, or
- FF** to resign

* Fianna Fáil
** Frances Fitzgerald

I would suggest that this would be a smarter question to ask in vox pops rather than "should there be an election"?
 
FFS

FF/SF now favourite to form next Government. It is really scary to think that the IRA Army council are on the verge of power down here.:mad:
 
Dan,

My preference is for Fitzie to go - based on her original gross incompetence (at best) and her pathetic attempts to cover up. My guess, however, is that neither "party" will back down and that we are headed for a bloody election.

In my opinion, what we are witnessing is the product of decades of political and public service dysfunction.
 
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She should go on her watered down Legal reform Bill of last year alone. An absolute debacle with the Law Library/Kings Inns getting to amend the proposed legislation before it went to cabinet.
The Govt are only playthings for the Legal profession who are the real rulers of this country
 
With reference to my original post, there has been a worrying easing in the odds of an election in 2017 (now 13/8). [I am assured that PPOW will accept up to €20 per customer at those odds?!] What can be the reason for such market movements?

Is MeHall going to march the troops back down DeHill again, proclaiming "once more not unto the breach, dear friends, once more", or
is Francie going to make an "I've done nothing wrong - however, I have always put the country first, etc." speech?

Personally, I hope it's the latter but I'm almost beyond caring - it's all getting too "four legs good, two legs bad" for me!!
 
At the risk of being lynched here, I'm not entirely clear what all the fuss is about - peak work season- haven't been consuming news in any great depth.

I've seen on Twitter what appears to be the email in question - legal team for the guards to ask whether the allegations had something to do with Maurice McCabe's motivation. So was it fully known at that stage that the allegations were entirely spurious? (it does acknowledge the DPP had decided not to take it on). Even if it was known, could it still have been relevant to MM's motivation - i.e. they tried to set me up so now I will blacken them.

I don't doubt MM's bona fides at all, and the whole Tusla thing is the most outrageous GUBU I can ever remember, but I dont immediately see how Francie should have reacted (she wasnt asked to). In legal environments it seems to me that legal teams will often 'try it on' to get a reaction, or rattle the witness etc. It's not pleasant but then the whole thing is not pleasant. The jist I was picking up from the hysteria was that she signed off on a smear campaign, now it seems the 'already done its work' smear campaign was being raised as possible motivation for MM (since I gather he had become aware of it of some time back - and that his whistleblowing had been over a number of years so it was a plausible line of attack that his continued whistleblowing was motivated by revenge). In general I'm not sure you peer over the surgeons shoulder and tell her which tendon to sever.....

So is it a resigning issue??, I don't think so, I think FG are right to call the bluff. Charleton will be going through all this shortly, if he is damning then that should be that for her. FF have gotten themselves on a bit of a hook here, I will certainly be giving them both barrels if they appear on my doorstep before Christmas, I doubt SF will call, I've no old washing machine abandoned out the front .....
 

Ask the homeless. Ask the people trying to get on the first rung of the property ladder. Ask the unemployed. Ask those on hospital waiting lists. Ask the elderly. Ask those paying huge rents. Ask those who can't afford private medical insurance.

Yes! We want an Election and the sooner the better.
 
Betsy I couldn’t agree more. I even believe Francie had forgotten that email. It is preposterous to think of her as part of a conspiracy to smear MM. Our adversarial system is based on lawyers trying every trick in the book. I hope MM was getting good legal support provided for him.

As for the other MM what a blunder he has made. He is clearly trying to wriggle off the hook but neither SF nor Leo will let him. I see PP no longer taking bets.
 
Hi Betsy,

I would take a different view.;)

I think Katie Hannon's blog is a reasonable summary - I find her commentary generally to be measured and factual.
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1126/922943-email-tanaiste/

I agree with Katie's concluding assertion that "there is no doubt that this was a cock-up of catastrophic proportions."

We may not get high standards in high places but at least we should seek reasonable standards. Accordingly, Francie should resign. There are also very serious questions about many senior officials in the Department of Justice. Will there be any meaningful sanction imposed on these people?

In my opinion, asserting that the behaviour of the minister (and her senior officials) as being within the grounds of reasonableness only serves to perpetuate what elacsaplau rightly described as "decades of political and public service dysfunction." In the immortal words of de Maistre.....toute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite.

All that said, the latest vibes seem to be that MeHall is going to march his men back down DeHill......
And when they were up, they were up
And when they were down, they were down
And when they were only half way up....

Once more not unto the breach, dear friends, once more!
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I even believe Francie had forgotten that email. It is preposterous to think of her as part of a conspiracy to smear MM.
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I don't think she was an active part of a conspiracy to smear MM. I believe there was a campaign to smear MM by senior members of AGS, and as Minister for Justice she should have been an active protector of MM against that evil campaign. Maybe she shouldn't have received that email, but once she was aware of it, she had to act, legal advice be damned.
It's not an email a Minister for Justice should forget.

At least half a dozen senior people in the Department of Justice knew that An Taoiseach was imparting incorrect information to the Dail. They should no longer be senior members of any Department, let alone justice.
 
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