Stress test
Note: I have tried to format the tables as best as possible, but it won't stay in place, sorry! I have all of this in excel - I've divided columns with a "/" here...
Thank you both so much for your helpful comments, and you may well be correct. In any case it has made me sit down and do a few calculations, and here is what I have come up with, but am no expert, so would greatly appreciate your thoughts.
I know the future is unpredictable, but I want to protect myself from the worst case scenario, which is that I end up with full liability for the mortgage on my PPR, which is in NE by about at least 200K.
I am looking at this from the worst case scenario point of view, i.e. I am the only one paying the mortgage on the principal private residence (PPR) and I’ve attempted to do a bit of a stress test.
STRESS TEST
I have sat down and worked out how much mortgage I can realistically afford on my own. This is net income after all outgoings, such as gas, electricity, refuse collection, UPC, TV licence, life insurance, house insurance, property tax – I have determined this by looking over the last 3 years. This works out at 1,350 Euro a month affordable repayment.
I have then looked at my outstanding mortgage on my PPR, currently at ~347K. I have then tried to come up with two different scenarios in terms of affordability. I have a tracker mortgage with PTSB.
Scenario 1: the loan amount does not change, but interest rates might change and repayments would be as follows (taking TRS into account in column 2, valid till 2017):
Scenario 2: I would inject my savings plus loan from father into mortgage of PPR (~100K)
Interest / Scenario 1 (status quo) / Scenario 2 (pay 100K into mortgage)
/ repayment / - TRS / repayment / - TRS
1.85% / €1,344.07 / €1,194.07 / €930.56 / €780.56
2.10% / €1,386.74 / €1,236.74 / €958.93 / €808.93
2.35% / €1,430.08 / €1,280.08 / €987.73 / €837.73
2.60% / €1,474.08 / €1,324.08 / €1,016.94 / €866.94
2.85% / €1,518.74 / €1,368.74 / €1,046.57 / €896.57
3.10% / €1,564.05 / €1,414.05 / €1,076.61 / €926.61
3.35% / €1,609.98 / €1,459.98 / €1,107.05 / €957.05
3.60% / €1,656.53 / €1,506.53 / €1,137.88 / €987.88
3.85% / €1,703.69 / €1,553.69 / €1,169.09 / €1,019.09
4.10% / €1,751.44 / €1,601.44 / €1,200.68 / €1,050.68
4.35% / €1,799.78 / €1,649.78 / €1,232.63 / €1,082.63
4.60% / €1,848.67 / €1,698.67 / €1,264.95 / €1,114.95
4.85% / €1,898.13 / €1,748.13 / €1,297.62 / €1,147.62
5.10% / €1,948.12 / €1,798.12 / €1,330.63 / €1,180.63
5.35% / €1,998.65 / €1,848.65 / €1,363.98 / €1,213.98
5.60% / €2,049.69 / €1,899.69 / €1,397.65 / €1,247.65
5.85% / €2,101.23 / €1,951.23 / €1,431.65 / €1,281.65
6.10% / €2,153.26 / €2,003.26 / €1,465.96 / €1,315.96
6.35% / €2,205.77 / €2,055.77 / €1,500.57 / €1,350.57
6.60% / €2,258.74 / €2,108.74 / €1,535.48 / €1,385.48
6.85% / €2,312.16 / €2,162.16 / €1,570.68 / €1,420.68
Scenario1: until 2017 I’d be ok up to 2.85% interest rise. Which isn’t great really. After 2017 I could only afford up to 2.1-2.35% interest.
Scenario 2: I could afford up to 6.35% until 2017 and 5.35% thereafter. This obviously looks a lot better. I would definitely have to try and get my partner off the deeds/mortgage though, again assuming the worst.
If I injected this 100K for example in Jan 2014 (at which stage I estimated the outstanding mortgage to be 337660) and would keep the loan at the same length I would make the following savings in interest (assuming the interest rate stays the same over the duration of the loan, which is of course unrealistic, but this is just to give me some idea):
Interest Rate / Total interest (337660)/ Total interest (237660) / Difference
1.85 / 89,397 /62,922 / 26,476
3.85 /200,677 / 141,245 / 59,432
5.85/ 326,009/ 229,459 / 96,549
So this would save me a good bit of money – assuming the mortgage runs over its entire life span, which is not likely as I will have an inheritance at some stage.
I have then looked at what yield I would get from buying an investment property (IP) costing 100K
BUYING AN INVESTMENT PROPERTY
/ Once-Off / Yearly Outgoings / Yearly income / Deductibles / Tax deductable
House Purchase Price / 100,000 / / / / No
Solicitor / 1,500 / / / / No
Stamp Duty (2%) / 2,000 / / / / No
PRTB / 90 / / / / No
NPPR registration (ends 2014) / 200 / / / / No
Property Tax / / 200 / / / Maybe?
Refuse Collection / / 200 / / 200 / Yes
Insurance / / 300 / / 300 / Yes
BER Survey (?) / 300 / / / / No
Building Survey / 500 / / / / No
Property Maintainance/Repair / / 500 / / 500 / Yes
Furnishings Wear/Tear / 10,000 / / / 1,250 / Yes 12.5% for 8 years
Gross Rental Income (2 bed) / / / 10,800 / /
Gross Rental Income (3 bed) / / / 14,400 / /
/ / / / /
Total / 114,590 / 1,200 / 10,800-14,400 / 2,250 /
Tax due and net yield
(Gross Income - Refuse ,Insurance, Repair and Wear/Tear) * 52% (41% tax plus 4% PRSI and 7% USC)
/Tax Due/ Net income from IP/ monthly/ Time in years to offset purchase price
2 Bed/ 4,446*/ 5,154**/ 430/ 22
3 Bed/ 6,318/ 6,882/ 574/ 17
*[(10,800-2,250)x0.52] ** [(10,800-1,200-4,446)]
(Gross Income - Refuse and Insurance only deductibles 500, total outgoings 700) * 52% (41% tax plus 4% PRSI and 7% USC)
/Tax Due/ Net income/ monthly/ Time in years to offset purchase price
2 Bed/ 5,356/ 4,744/ 395/ 24
3 Bed/ 7,228/ 6,472/ 539/ 18
Having done this, obviously it would be better to try and get a 3 bed, but depending on location and rentability this might not be possible. I have looked at current rentals of houses in the area I’m looking at, so the rental income is based on this.
I have researched the revenue webpage and askaboutmoney to figure out all the costs and tax etc, so I hope I have worked this out the correct way.
In any case, if I did calculate correctly I could expect a rental yield of somewhere between 400-570 Euro per month.
So now back to my scenario 1, if I had an extra let’s say 450 Euro per month to add to my max mortgage repayment of 1,350, this would bring me up to 1,800 Euro a month, which means I could afford an interest rate of 5.1 and 4.35% on the PPR before and after 2017 respectively. Which is not quite as good as scenario 2.
So to compare these options now:
I stick with scenario 1 and buy a, IP (house to let), I will be able to afford the PPR up to an interest rate of 5.1%/4.35%(post 2017). Assuming I have constant tenancy (I know this is not realistic either) the cost of this would be the 115K. Possibly another 20K depending on how much repair the house needs (I have this extra as savings, so no loan required). For this I’d need 80K from my dad.
Advantages: House prices are such that I can afford to buy a house without needing a mortgage. I have two houses, rental house helps paying for PPR. Value of both houses might increase. I could sell IP if necessary.
Disadvantages: All the hassles that come with being a landlord, house might not rent out, value of houses might decrease. House might not sell. Potentially 50-100K more interest than option 2 if kept over entire lifetime. Bank has to agree to take partner off mortgage and deeds.
Scenario 2: I put the 100K into PPR mortgage, which makes repayments affordable up to up to 6.35% until 2017 and 5.35% thereafter. For this I’d use 20K of my savings and 80K from my dad.
Advantages: I have one PPR, cost of mortgage less, no extra burden/stress with rental property, value of house might increase. Potential savings in interest would cancel out some/all of financial injection if mortgage kept over lifetime
Disadvantage: Bank has to agree to take partner off mortgage and deeds. House value might decrease. House prices might go up and I would not be able to afford a second house.
Conclusion
Scenario 1 would cost me about 120K to buy the house and potentially an extra 100 K in interest (compared to scenario 2), but I’d end up with two houses. It is likely that the mortgage on PPR will be paid off before its agreed lifetime though. Houseprices might go up again and I’d make up for the NE on PPR with increased value of Investment property.
Scenario 2 would cost me 100K but that would even itself out through savings in interest payments. I have one house. House prices might increase and I would not be able to afford an investment property.
So in the end it’s a bit of a gamble...
I could of course add a 3rd scenario, in which my Dad buys the IP, which would considerably decrease the tax due, but I need to look into the whole side of things with doing that, and he’d need to check tax laws to see how that would affect him (he is retired).
Sorry for this extremely long post, but Bronte challenged me to prove whether there is an advantage to doing this, which prompted me to go through this whole calculation!