Mortgage Arrears Stats for June 2011

[Brendan Burgess]

[broken link removed]

Total mortgages | 777,321

In arrears for more than 90 days | 55,763(7.2%)

Restructured and not in arrears|39,395 (5%)

Total restructured or in arrears|95,181(12.2%)

Arrangements whereby at least the interest only portion of the mortgage is being met account for over half of all restructure types (52%)[2].

So, for 20,000 of these, the balance outstanding is not increasing.

Court repossessions| 54
voluntary surrender and abandoned|119
Total repossessed or surrendered|173

Court proceedings issued to date: 3,027

Far too few houses are being surrendered. It should be a few thousand a year, not a few hundred. I reckon that around 10,000 have unsustainable mortgages and would be better off if they surrendered their home.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Some very useful information on the types of restructuring

arrears capitalisation|8,994
reduced repayment, but greater than interest only|10,777
Term extension (surely the same thing as reduced repayment?)|9,410
interest only|25,786
Reduced payment less than interest only|9,405
Payment moratorium|2,163
Other|3,302
Total|69,837

Of these 39,395 are sticking to the rescheduling. The balance of 30,442 are in arrears on the rescheduled deal.

This suggests to me that 53,000 of these have been restructured so as to pay at least the interest. But of

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I can't get my head around this explanation in note 11.

The data at the end of the quarter is the total stock of restructures to date. Accounts that are restructured but possess arrears greater than 90 days will have already been included in the over 90 days arrears section of this return. It must be noted that the number of restructured accounts possessing arrears at the end of the quarter does not indicate the level of mortgages that have slipped back into arrears after initial restructuring. In other words, restructured accounts that are in arrears are comprised of loans that had arrears both prior to restructuring (but are now performing according to the new arrangement), and those loans that have slipped back into arrears post restructuring. Furthermore, the quarterly increase in the total stock of restructures is not due exclusively to new restructures that took place in the quarter, as some restructuring arrangements that were in place at the end of the previous quarter will have expired by the end of the current quarter. Therefore, those accounts whose arrangements have expired at some point in the current quarter are not included in the overall stock of restructures at the end of this quarter

 

[Booter]

Some very useful information on the types of restructuring

arrears capitalisation|8,994
reduced repayment, but greater than interest only|10,777
Term extension (surely the same thing as reduced repayment?)|9,410
interest only|25,786
Reduced payment less than interest only|9,405
Payment moratorium|2,163
Other|3,302
Total|69,837

Brendan,

Does a reduced repayment automatically lead to a term extension? I would have thought the bank would simply increase future repayments to deal with the shortfall, but over the same period of time.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi Booter

Good point. Now I see the difference.

A reduced repayment does not imply an extension of the term.

However, an extension of the term implies a reduced repayment.

Brendan

 

[LDFerguson]

I can't get my head around this explanation in note 11.

The data at the end of the quarter is the total stock of restructures to date. Accounts that are restructured but possess arrears greater than 90 days will have already been included in the over 90 days arrears section of this return. It must be noted that the number of restructured accounts possessing arrears at the end of the quarter does not indicate the level of mortgages that have slipped back into arrears after initial restructuring. In other words, restructured accounts that are in arrears are comprised of loans that had arrears both prior to restructuring (but are now performing according to the new arrangement), and those loans that have slipped back into arrears post restructuring. Furthermore, the quarterly increase in the total stock of restructures is not due exclusively to new restructures that took place in the quarter, as some restructuring arrangements that were in place at the end of the previous quarter will have expired by the end of the current quarter. Therefore, those accounts whose arrangements have expired at some point in the current quarter are not included in the overall stock of restructures at the end of this quarter

Here's my attempt at interpretation: -

• Although there are some accounts that appear in both the 90-day arrears figures and the re-structuring figures, you shouldn't assume that accounts appearing in both are ones where the account has slipped into arrears after the restructure. It may be that the arrears occurred before the restructuring and still exists, even though the customer is keeping to the terms of the restructure.
• Don't assume that the difference in the total number of restructures published in this quarter minus the total published last quarter equals the number of new restructure agreements this quarter. Some that appeared in the figures last quarter may have expired. So the number of new restructure agreements this quarter is probably higher.

 

[DoctorEvil]

Total mortgages | 777,321

In arrears for more than 90 days | 55,763(7.2%)

Restructured and not in arrears|39,395 (5%)

Total restructured or in arrears|95,181(12.2%)

It would be interesting to see the percentage value of the 12.2% against the total mortgage value.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

here you go

Total mortgage value | €115 billion

In arrears for more than 90 days | €10.8 billion

Restructured and not in arrears| €6.6 billion

Total restructured or in arrears|€17.4 billion (15.1%)

 

[DoctorEvil]

Thanks Brendan.

I was surprised it only went up to 15.1% - I would have thought it could have got closer to 20%

So the average mortgage in arrears is 50k bigger than the average for performing mortgages and the average restructured is almost 25k bigger.

Average mortgage value | €148k

Average for in arrears for more than 90 days | €194k

Average for restructured and not in arrears| €167.5k

Average for performing mortgages|€143k

Don't know if this analysis helps in figuring out anything but thought it was worth looking at.

 

[44brendan]

In terms of mortgage numbers. the total for the country is 777,173. Of this 15,723 or 7.1% are in arrears .90 days. The figure is high but given the problems being encountered by most people I would have expected to see a higher number in arrears.