Key Post Mortgage Arrears statistics at 30 June 2013

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Summary

  • There were 97,874 (12.7 per cent) private residential mortgage accounts for principal dwelling houses (PDH) in arrears of over 90 days at end-June 2013, up from 95,554 accounts (12.3 per cent) at end-March 2013.
  • The number of PDH accounts in longer-term arrears over 180 days increased by 3.8 per cent during Q2 2013, while quarter-on-quarter growth in the number of accounts in arrears over 720 days was 11.3 per cent.
  • The number of PDH accounts in early arrears declined further during the second quarter of the year. The figures show that 45,018 PDH accounts were in arrears of less than 90 days at end-June, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.3 per cent.
  • There was a total stock of 79,357 PDH mortgage accounts classified as restructured at end-June. Of these restructured accounts, 76.5 per cent of these were deemed to be meeting the terms of their current restructure arrangement.
  • There were 30,326 (20.4 per cent) residential mortgage accounts for buy-to-let (BTL) properties in arrears of over 90 days at end-June 2013, up from 29,369 (19.7 per cent) at end-March 2013.
View [broken link removed]and data tables.
 
Summary of Principal Private Residences

|Accounts|Homes| Arrears
Less than 90 days|45,000|36,000|€73m
90 -360 days|41,000|33,00|€287m
Over 1 year|28,000|22,000|€505m
Over 2 years|29,000|23,000|€1.1 b
Total|770,610|620,000|€2billion
The Central Bank data refers to "mortgage loan accounts". Due to remortgages, there are approximately 5 mortgage accounts for every 4 homes.



Compared to 30 June 2012
|30 June 2013|30 June 2012
In arrears over 90 days|12.7%|10.9%
In arrears less than 90 days|5.8%|5.9%
Successfully restructured|5.5%|5.3%
Not restructured and not in arrears| 76%|77.9%
Unemployment rate | 13.6%|14.9%
Total arrears| €2 billion| €1.4 billion




Putting mortgage arrears in perspective

Total mortgage arrears accumulated since 2006| €2 billion
Total mortgages outstanding |€109 billion
Total mortgages repaid since 2006 - estimate|€15 billion
National Debt increase during the same period - estimate| €150 billion
Cost of Anglo Bailout| €30 billion
Mortgage arrears and other housing needs

Total number of homes in arrears over 90 days|78,000
Total receiving Rent supplement| 96,000
Total in social housing|155,000
 
It is unusual that the mortgage arrears rates are still rising.

In other countries, default rates lag the unemployment figures by about 6 months.

[broken link removed] at 15.1% in February 2012 and so one would have expected arrears rates to have peaked around this time last year and to have been falling gradually since.

Some people in the banks have claimed that customers have been far more engaging in recent weeks since the restrictions in the mortgage arrears code were lifted and since the legal ban on repossessions has been fixed. If so, this should show a little in the figures to the end of September and a bit more in the figures to the end of December.

Brendan
 
The arrears levels in the contexts of provisions made - the splits between the state owned banks and the others are estimated

|Total|State owned banks|other banks
mortgages outstanding| €109 billion|€50 billion|€59 billion
Total arrears |€2 billion |€1 billion |€1billion
Projected losses at last recapitalisation| |€4.5billion
Balances due on mortgages in arrears over 90 days|€18billion |€9 billion
The state owned banks are AIB, EBS and ptsb

These figures represent the losses projected over three years by the Central Bank for which the banks were recapitalised in 2011 .
 
So how many voluntary sales/repossessions can we expect?

There are 23,000 homes in arrears over two years and 22,000 in arrears over one year.

It's likely that many of these will increase their payments now that the Mortgage Arrears Code has been relaxed and the legal ban on repossessions has been removed.

However, it will be too late for many to catch up and make any inroads into their arrears.

If half of them are repossessed,that would be around 20,000.
 
Bottom line is more people in arrears and the banks aren't dealing with long term solutions - no surprise there then.
 
The primary reason more people are in arrears is because more people are not paying their mortgages according to their agreed terms.

If the banks had repossessed houses since 2006, we would have a much smaller arrears problem but a big repossession problem.
 
Lovely Brendan !!

So now we are getting a big arrears and potentially abig repossession problem coming together at the same time

I confidently give you odds of 5 to 1 , this won,t happen. My reason is that putting arrears and reops together is Societal and Financial Armageddon.!
A way will be cobbled together to manage this.
With luck our Banks will just be told to toe the line. Decisions are needed.
 
Instead of repo's, people will save face and "sell" their homes into Housing Associations, often run by the council, which will suit the banks who don't want to deal with it anyway, the banks will agree a reduced price to allow debtors sell to the local governments, given that same gov bailed them and saved all their private pensions, thus offering debt forgiveness to the poor debtor via the new Insolvency Procedures, which, when the Gov finally have an ah-ha moment about sorting the arrears epidemic, they will link directly to the housing assocs as an outcome strategy. Then we will have a lovely plump circle formed whereby we more or less paid the banks twice for all these properties. Classy. Insolvency Procedures + local Gov Housing Assocs. = happy debtor, happy bank and a new socio-political landscape the ramifications of which we will only fully understand in 20 years time.
 
I'm going to bed now with some inspirational poems by Seamus Heaney promising better times when hope and history rhyme.
 
Has anyone update on arrears statistics?
Maybe impending threat of multiple Bankrupcies etc will have kic started proper viable resolutions.
Just hoping to see an improvement this side of Christmas.
 
Just heard back from CB - they'll be publishing hte Q3 stats by the end of the week.

Hi Derek,

Thanks for your email.

We expect to publish the Mortgage Arrears & Repossession Statistics for Q3 towards the end of this week
 
Here are the Q3 stats
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Summary​

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The number of mortgage accounts for principal dwelling houses (PDH) in arrears, fell from 142,892 (18.5 per cent of the total stock) to 141,520 (18.4 per cent) during the quarter to end-September 2013. The outstanding balance on all PDH mortgages in arrears fell by 0.5 per cent during Q3, the first decrease since the series began in September 2009. However, this decrease masks divergent trends between short-term and longer-term arrears.
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PDH mortgage accounts in arrears of over 90 days at end-September 2013 amounted to 99,189, an increase of 1,315 on the previous quarter. This increase was driven entirely by accounts in arrears over 720 days with all other maturity categories declining.
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The number of PDH accounts in early arrears of less than 90 days declined by 6 per cent during the third quarter, compared to a decrease of 3.3 per cent in Q2.
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There was a total stock of 80,555 PDH mortgage accounts classified as restructured at end-September, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5 per cent. Of these restructured accounts, 78.9 per cent were deemed to be meeting the terms of their current restructure arrangement.
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The number of buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage accounts in arrears rose from 39,948 (26.9 per cent) to 40,426 (27.4 per cent) in the third quarter of 2013. However, similar to PDH developments, the increase was driven by longer-term arrears, with the number of accounts in arrears up to 180 days declining.
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There were 31,227 (21.2 per cent) residential mortgage accounts for BTL properties in arrears of over 90 days at end-September 2013, up from 30,326 (20.4 per cent) at end-June 2013.


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