RTB figures over the shorter term confirm that the number of dwellings avialable in the PRS is going up, not down
The RTB's own Q2 2026 data doesn't bear that out. I went through it in the Q2
thread, but in short:
Private tenancies fell. Strip out cost rental and the private register was down 179 on the quarter.
And it's all outside Dublin. Seventeen of twenty-six counties declined. Dublin +442; every other county combined −621 — Cork −242, Limerick −183, Galway −85, Mayo −80.
New tenancies collapsed. New registrations fell to 10,129, the lowest on record. Strip out cost rental and private new registrations were no more than 9,169 — down 43% on the quarter and 35% on the year. That's the flow of homes actually coming onto the market.
The family homes are going. Apartments have risen every quarter. Houses peaked in Q4 2024 and have fallen since. What's growing is small units; what's leaving is the stock a family can live in.
And the register is flattered. The RTB issued 7,008 compliance notices for failure to register in 2025, and another 1,284 in the first half of this year. The RTB has said in the past about 60% one of those adds an existing tenancy to the count, but they don't adding a home. Take them out and the decline is starker.
So is the supply that is being added. The Vacant Property Refurbishment Grant pays up to €70,000 per property to refurbish vacant homes, including for rent. For rental units, the grant is only paid once the tenancy has been registered with the RTB, and there's a ten-year clawback that obliges the owner to keep re-letting. So every rental home it funds lands on the register as a condition of the public money. Over 6,000 grants have been paid to date. However many of those are lettings, each one is taxpayer-funded supply counted as private-sector growth — and the register still went backwards. The State is paying people to add homes to the private rented sector, and the sector is shrinking anyway.
Meanwhile landlord numbers fell, and the headline growth the RTB reports is AHB and cost rental — State-funded supply. All of this despite the Vacant Property Refurbishment Grant and years of RTB compliance outreach.
Nor is institutional capital replacing the small landlords. IRES, the only listed residential landlord, trades at roughly a 23% discount to its NAV and is selling units above book. It's trades flat / below the level it did before the reforms were announced in June '25 and over 40% below it's peak. It's worth more broken up than as a going concern.
So no — the PRS isn't growing. It's shrinking outside Dublin, losing family homes, and being propped up in the headline numbers by the State's own tenancies and its own enforcement campaign.