Mary-Lou "United Ireland is within touching distance"

suddenly the percentages in favour are up to the mid 40's and it starts to get very close

Last time I checked, mid 40's didnt win a referendum.

I get the point though, and it is valid.

Unionism would be hesitant on a referendum on the off-chance, albeit remote, that the result went against staying in the union. All this does however is emphasis the need to have a referendum to let the people have their say.

DUP, still the largest unionist party, are fundamentally opposed to ever having a referendum.
 
In many respects, SF can't lose, a mid 40's result could have them legitamately saying, "not yet but soon" and a look at the demographics could have then saying, next time in 10 years and we'll be there.

The only risk for SF is if the non-aligned and some of their own supporters break the other way for economic reasons. There are a lot of new people living in the North who won't wrap themselves in a Union Jack or sing about the 4 green fields, and they could be the deciding factor
 
The only risk for SF is if the non-aligned and some of their own supporters break the other way for economic reasons.
That and support for unification in Ireland dropping at the same time, 64% in favour in 2022, down to 62% in 2024. Where does another 10 years see that go?
 
That and support for unification in Ireland dropping at the same time, 64% in favour in 2022, down to 62% in 2024. Where does another 10 years see that go?
Yep. the New Irish are not singing Wolfe Tone ballads, the younger generation are more worried about being able to buy a house. I do think it would pass in the south but it would not be over-whelming
 
Its not really about SF though, they are just the one's most vocal about it.

Our constitution reaffirms the firm of the Irish people to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland.

Articles 2&3 were endorsed 90%+, I think.

They are aspirational of course but I would suggest that a referendum on Irish unity when put to the people, those aspirations will come to the fore over any tax and economic concerns. Such concerns can easily be refuted anyway as the arguements for a partitioned island are wholly weaker than those for a United Ireland.
 
They are aspirational of course but I would suggest that a referendum on Irish unity when put to the people, those aspirations will come to the fore over any tax and economic concerns. Such concerns can easily be refuted anyway as the arguements for a partitioned island are wholly weaker than those for a United Ireland.
The education system in Northern Ireland is a shambles, they’ve twice as many State employees per capita as us, they don’t have a functioning economy and they rely on massive transfers financial from Britain. So no, there’s no economic argument for a united Ireland in the medium term.
Then there’s the issues of Unionist, like you aforementioned DUP extremists and their paramilitary brethren, setting off bombs in Dublin etc.
Next there’s the question of what a United Ireland looks like. Our flag will be gone, our National Anthem will be gone, we’ll probably have to be in the commonwealth and we may well have to accept the UK monarch as our head of state.
Then there’s the religious fundamentalism on both sides in the North, the homophobia, the Xenophobia and the general higher levels of bigotry in Northern Ireland. Are we okay with that?
A united Ireland isn’t the North joining our country, it’s us and them forming a new country that acknowledges our shared heritage and history with Britain. The version of Irishness that we’ve made up over the last 200 years will have to be jettisoned and a new one that actually reflects our history, including the bits we don’t like, will have to be embraced.
Are we willing to accept that?
I don’t know if I am.
 
The education system in Northern Ireland is a shambles, they’ve twice as many State employees per capita as us, they don’t have a functioning economy and they rely on massive transfers financial from Britain. So no, there’s no economic argument for a united Ireland in the medium term.

You just made the economic arguement for a UI.

Then there’s the issues of Unionist, like you aforementioned DUP extremists and their paramilitary brethren, setting off bombs in Dublin etc.

Many Unionists have long accepted that the British State is not as loyal to them as they are to the Britian. In the event of end of partition, it won't be coming back....a realisation, and political pragmatism will eventually endure.
The threat of bombs....we can never give in to the terrorists.
Our flag will be gone,
Make a new one.
our National Anthem will be gone
Make a new one.
we’ll probably have to be in the commonwealth and we may well have to accept the UK monarch as our head of state.

Interesting. This would be akin to the Home Rule era. The era where Irish Nationalism through exclusively peaceful and democratic means achieved a restoration of parliament for Ireland. This would have ensured the union with Britian, who in its time of need, tenfold Irish people signed up to fight for the British Crown than ever took up arms for the IRA.

It was the usurpation of that democratic and legitimately achieved right from threats of violence by Unionists that led to the chaos of the 20th century - Curragh Mutiny, Ulster Covenant, Ulster Volunteers, Irish Volunteers, Bachelors Walk, 1916, 1919-21, Partition, Civil War (1923), Civil War (1969-1995).
 
You just made the economic arguement for a UI.
Only from Northern Ireland’s perspective and only if we provide the massive subsidy that Britain currently provides.
Many Unionists have long accepted that the British State is not as loyal to them as they are to the Britian.
And many don’t.
In the event of end of partition, it won't be coming back....a realisation, and political pragmatism will eventually endure.
That’s just wishful thinking.
The threat of bombs....we can never give in to the terrorists.
And yet you refer to the Provisional IRAs terrorist campaign as a Civil War.
Make a new one.
Make a new one.
I’m okay with that. I like the flag but our Anthem is rubbish.
Interesting. This would be akin to the Home Rule era. The era where Irish Nationalism through exclusively peaceful and democratic means achieved a restoration of parliament for Ireland.
I think you need to do a bit of reading. John Redmond and others were certainly of that view but plenty weren’t.
This would have ensured the union with Britian, who in its time of need, tenfold Irish people signed up to fight for the British Crown than ever took up arms for the IRA.
Yep, lots of people in this country were Unionists. We even had a large Protestant minority but we ethnically cleansed most of them after independence.
It was the usurpation of that democratic and legitimately achieved right from threats of violence by Unionists that led to the chaos of the 20th century - Curragh Mutiny, Ulster Covenant, Ulster Volunteers, Irish Volunteers, Bachelors Walk, 1916, 1919-21, Partition, Civil War (1923), Civil War (1969-1995).
That’s a very one eyed view of our history. I again suggest that you do some reading. The revisionist views of the child killers who run Sinn Fein don’t serve the interests of anyone who really wants a united Ireland just as their soulmates in the DUP and UVF don’t either.
 
Only from Northern Ireland’s perspective and only if we provide the massive subsidy that Britain currently provides.

It's Britain's continued subsidy of NI that is the problem with inflated public services. The subsidy is borne out of sustaining partition, sustaining the Empire.

No NI, no need for a subsidy.
I say that appreciating within the pages of this platform there are many, many complex attributes to forming a UI.

And yet you refer to the Provisional IRAs terrorist campaign as a Civil War.
The period '69 to '95 was, with the benefit of hindsight, nothing less than a civil war. To define it, the institutions of British law & authority had lost the confidence of the minority population (Irish nationalists). The people rose up - peacefully protesting, and they got their answer in spades - beatings, shootings, pogroms, internment, mass murder, cover-ups, collusion etc - that was the answer of British State to the injustices of Orange State.
In turn, the PIRA emerged, and a prolonged and futile (again with benefit of hindsight) conflict ensued.

By any yardstick of Irish history, the conflict in NI was a Civil War as it predominately engaged the two communities against each other. That is just my opinion.
I think you need to do a bit of reading. John Redmond and others were certainly of that view but plenty weren’t.

Yeh, but JR was the leader of Irish Nationalism? The 'plenty weren't', were who exactly? The IRB?

Yep, lots of people in this country were Unionists. We even had a large Protestant minority but we ethnically cleansed most of them after independence.
Not sure where you are going with this?

My point was that Irish people, ten-fold (regardless of religion), gave service to the British Crown in Europe in her time of need than ever fought with IRA.

I suppose the salient point is had Britain honoured its owns laws, as achieved democratically and peacefully and passed through its own parliament, then Britain and Ireland could have had the long-standing good relations we have now some 100+yrs ago with the catastrophe of the 20th century.

If only, the British gov did not succumb to threats of Unionist violence, then perhaps our gallant heros of 1916 would not have reacted in kind with actual violence? Thus, enthrenching the militant view for future generations?

I appreciate its all speculative, but it think it emphasises the primacy of democratic rule.
 
That’s a very one eyed view of our history. I again suggest that you do some reading. The revisionist views of the child killers who run Sinn Fein don’t serve the interests of anyone who really wants a united Ireland just as their soulmates in the DUP and UVF don’t either.

I beg your pardon, I have not offered a 'one-eyed view', rather a view based on facts.

What any of the above questions has to do with SF is beyond me? SF was fledgling party in 1914 of no notable support. What is more in 1914, they supported a dual-monarchy between Britain and Ireland.

Are you denying that a Home Rule parliament Act for Ireland was passed in the British parliament?
Are you denying that Ulster Unionists threatened, by any means necessary including violence, to usurp British law?
Are you denying that 200,000 + Irish citizens, of all persuasions, answered Britains call for WW1?
 
Yep, lots of people in this country were Unionists. We even had a large Protestant minority but we ethnically cleansed most of them after independence.
I have plenty of Protestant minority Blood running trough my veins, The Protestant minority in the southern part of Ireland population was falling before Independence,The Southern Protestant around where I live for the most part working class got English Heritage,
Anyone who buys into ethnically cleansing as the reason for the large drop in population is in the weeds,
There are lots of reasons,
If you take the time as I have you will see in the towns and villages where they lived the reasons are many and affected Whole family Names both Catholics as well as Protestants died out around the same time for the same reasons nothing to do with ethnically cleansing (which is DUP speak)
 
Anyone who buys into ethnically cleansing as the reason for the large drop in population is in the weeds

Agreed.

One of the significant factors of population decrease was the fact that Unionist populations put the fear of God into their own people about what a Home parliament in Ireland would mean, 'Home Rule is Rome Rule', 'No Popery' etc. The fear-mongering may not have been without some justification but fear-mongering it was and would play some part in Protestants moving North of their own volition.
 
I have plenty of Protestant minority Blood running trough my veins, The Protestant minority in the southern part of Ireland population was falling before Independence,The Southern Protestant around where I live for the most part working class got English Heritage,
Anyone who buys into ethnically cleansing as the reason for the large drop in population is in the weeds,
There are lots of reasons,
If you take the time as I have you will see in the towns and villages where they lived the reasons are many and affected Whole family Names both Catholics as well as Protestants died out around the same time for the same reasons nothing to do with ethnically cleansing (which is DUP speak)
I’ve taken the time too. The main reason was the requirement by the RC Church that in order for a Catholic to be allowed to marry a Protestant the children would have to be raised Catholic.
There were plenty of “big houses” burned out during and after independence but it was mostly through the marriage rules. The net result was a massive drop in the Protestant population right up to the last few decades.
 
One of the significant factors of population decrease was the fact that Unionist populations put the fear of God into their own people about what a Home parliament in Ireland would mean, 'Home Rule is Rome Rule', 'No Popery' etc. The fear-mongering may not have been without some justification but fear-mongering it was and would play some part in Protestants moving North of their own volition.
Nonsense. While the “No Popery” fear was real and, in hindsight, more than justified, Dev did a good job keeping the Catholic Church out of our constitution and most southern Protestants were Church of Ireland, not Presbyterians. They were nothing like the “wee Free’s”.
 
I beg your pardon, I have not offered a 'one-eyed view', rather a view based on facts.
A selective use of facts, hence the observation.
What any of the above questions has to do with SF is beyond me? SF was fledgling party in 1914 of no notable support. What is more in 1914, they supported a dual-monarchy between Britain and Ireland.
Yes, the majority of the population were pro-Union in 1914.
Are you denying that a Home Rule parliament Act for Ireland was passed in the British parliament?
Are you aware that the Home Rule Parliament Act gave us far less power or sovereignty than the devolved parliament in Wales currently enjoys?
Are you denying that Ulster Unionists threatened, by any means necessary including violence, to usurp British law?
Nope, the first threat of terrorise and treason came from the Unionists. The irony of which seems, even now, to be completely lost on them.
Are you denying that 200,000 + Irish citizens, of all persuasions, answered Britains call for WW1?
No, that was a strong indication that there was widespread popular support for the union with Britain.
The post independence narrative that they all went off to fight and die as an act of support for a glorified devolved county council just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, especially when so many of them were either well off professionals joining the officer corps or hunger and unemployed young men.
 
It's Britain's continued subsidy of NI that is the problem with inflated public services. The subsidy is borne out of sustaining partition, sustaining the Empire.
I agree but there’s still no functioning economy there. It is, as Charley Haughy said, a failed economic experiment.
No NI, no need for a subsidy.
So just let them be really poor?

I say that appreciating within the pages of this platform there are many, many complex attributes to forming a UI.
It seems not.

The period '69 to '95 was, with the benefit of hindsight, nothing less than a civil war. To define it, the institutions of British law & authority had lost the confidence of the minority population (Irish nationalists). The people rose up - peacefully protesting, and they got their answer in spades - beatings, shootings, pogroms, internment, mass murder, cover-ups, collusion etc - that was the answer of British State to the injustices of Orange State.
Once direct rule was imposed from Westminster the Apartheid State that was the gerrymandered Unionist Government was dismantled and whatever slim excuse the Provos had for killing children and blowing up pensioners disappeared. It was never a civil war because none of the Unionists supported the PIRA and the vast majority of Catholics didn’t either.
In turn, the PIRA emerged, and a prolonged and futile (again with benefit of hindsight) conflict ensued.

By any yardstick of Irish history, the conflict in NI was a Civil War as it predominately engaged the two communities against each other. That is just my opinion.
Further reading required.
Yeh, but JR was the leader of Irish Nationalism? The 'plenty weren't', were who exactly? The IRB?
I don’t understand your question.
Not sure where you are going with this?

My point was that Irish people, ten-fold (regardless of religion), gave service to the British Crown in Europe in her time of need than ever fought with IRA.
Yes, a good example of their support for the union.
I suppose the salient point is had Britain honoured its owns laws, as achieved democratically and peacefully and passed through its own parliament, then Britain and Ireland could have had the long-standing good relations we have now some 100+yrs ago with the catastrophe of the 20th century.

If only, the British gov did not succumb to threats of Unionist violence, then perhaps our gallant heros of 1916 would not have reacted in kind with actual violence? Thus, enthrenching the militant view for future generations?

I appreciate its all speculative, but it think it emphasises the primacy of democratic rule.
It’s also very one eyed and heavy on the hyperbole.
My family were heavily involved in the Easter Rising, the War of Independence and the Civil War. I grew up listening to the songs and stories. Then I read the history. All of the history.
 
I grew up listening to the songs and stories

Yes, clearly.

There was no ethnic cleansing of Protestants in Southern Ireland as you proclaim. There were some sectarian murders. They were predominantly in reaction to sectarian murders against Catholics in the new NI state, attacks that far outweighed attacks on Protestants in the South. In both instances, either the attacks on Catholics or Protestants could not be defined as ethnic cleansing from NI or from Free State.

The decline of the Protestant population in NI is far greater. It goes from 66% of NI in 1926 to 42% in 1999.

NI is a failed economic experiment. If that was what Charlie Haughey said, Mary Lou McD has also claimed it is not economically viable.

Had Ulster Unionists accepted the democratic will of the parliament they claim to be loyal to Ireland would have remained as one and the issue of partition and sectarianism that blighted this country in the 20th century may not have occurred ~ regardless of what powers a Welsh parliament would obtain in 1999?!?!

Ulster Unionists rejected the prospect of parliament for Ireland despite the widespread support of Irish Nationalists to remain within the union, demonstrated by the service of Irish men in Britains hour of need. Unionist politicians betrayed them all.


My family were heavily involved in the Easter Rising

Well then you will know that the decision by the IRB to execute a rebellion in Dublin was made within days of it becoming apparent that Britain would suspend the Home Rule parliament upon its enactment. Britain had succumbed to the threat of Unionist violence, the IRB would respond in kind with actual violence and the rest, as they say, is history.
 
Once direct rule was imposed from Westminster the Apartheid State that was the gerrymandered Unionist Government was dismantled
Direct rule was imposed on 30 March 1972, some two months after Bloody Sunday in Derry. Internment, which is what the protest march in Derry was against, remained in force under direct rule until December 1975! It would take some 40yrs before the British gov acknowledged the unlawful murders by its military.
The apartheid state remained in place for a long time after the imposition of direct rule.
 
There was no ethnic cleansing of Protestants in Southern Ireland as you proclaim.
The numbers of Protestants in the country declined sharply in the decades after Independence. Do you think that they just chose to leave their own country? What do you think happened?
In the 4 years after Independence 40,000 Protestants fled the country in fear as a new State was constructed which excluded them. Around 150-200 Protestants were murdered and there were mini pogroms around the country, particularly in West Cork. In Bandon and Dunmanway there were 13 murdered in one night in April 1922. The youngest was a teenaged boy.


There were some sectarian murders. They were predominantly in reaction to sectarian murders against Catholics in the new NI state, attacks that far outweighed attacks on Protestants in the South. In both instances, either the attacks on Catholics or Protestants could not be defined as ethnic cleansing from NI or from Free State.
What was happening in Northern Ireland was worse but that in no way excuses what happened in this country. But the actions of both States in the years after partition look like ethnic cleansing to me. The net result here was a reduction

The decline of the Protestant population in NI is far greater. It goes from 66% of NI in 1926 to 42% in 1999.
That's not a decline, it's a proportionate increase in the Catholic population. If you don't want to be accused as having a one eyed view of history then don't misrepresent information like that. In 1921 there were around 300,000 Protestants in Ireland. By 2011 that number had shrunk to around 180,000. That despite the overall population of the country growing by more than 50% during that period. I picked 2011 because levels of immigration have confused the data set since them.
NI is a failed economic experiment. If that was what Charlie Haughey said, Mary Lou McD has also claimed it is not economically viable.
Mary Lou has never had an original thought in her life. That's why her bosses put her "in charge".

Had Ulster Unionists accepted the democratic will of the parliament they claim to be loyal to Ireland would have remained as one and the issue of partition and sectarianism that blighted this country in the 20th century may not have occurred ~ regardless of what powers a Welsh parliament would obtain in 1999?!?!
We'd probably still be British so I'm glad they did since I'm a Republican though not a Nationalist.

Ulster Unionists rejected the prospect of parliament for Ireland despite the widespread support of Irish Nationalists to remain within the union, demonstrated by the service of Irish men in Britains hour of need. Unionist politicians betrayed them all.
Agreed and if the British Military hadn't behaved so stupidly after the Easter Rising then the retrospective rise in support for the Rising probably never would have happened.

Well then you will know that the decision by the IRB to execute a rebellion in Dublin was made within days of it becoming apparent that Britain would suspend the Home Rule parliament upon its enactment. Britain had succumbed to the threat of Unionist violence, the IRB would respond in kind with actual violence and the rest, as they say, is history.
Yep, both sides totally ignored the will of the majority of the people and imposed violence and murder on the population. I don't see a great deal of difference between them.
There's a very strong case to be made that we would have achieved independence if the Rising never happened. The anti-Imperialist movement was global and we were part of it. The unwinding of Empire was inevitable. We could have had an independent United Ireland with a more secular constitution, have avoided the Land War, and had a much more successful country sooner. We just don't know what could have happened.
 
They are aspirational of course but I would suggest that a referendum on Irish unity when put to the people, those aspirations will come to the fore over any tax and economic concerns. Such concerns can easily be refuted anyway as the arguements for a partitioned island are wholly weaker than those for a United Ireland.
A poll in 2015 asked people in the Republic if they were in favour of a United Ireland if it meant they would pay more taxes, 31% said they were, 44% said they would vote against it.

Given that Article 2 and 3 were actually watered down in the Good Friday agreement and people were voting for a peace agreement, I just don't get the arguement that it was a 90% endorsement of a United Ireland, you could argue it was a 90% endorsement of removing our automatic claim on the North.

If you assume 15%-20% of the electorate were not born in Ireland and will vote primarily with the pockets, that it will take around 10 years for a financial "break even" to be achieved, that the price of a United Ireland may be property and water charges to compensate perhaps for a reduced VAT rate and that we run the risk of religious fundamentalists (AKA the DUP) being one of the major if not the main opposition party in the Dail, then suddenly it looks a lot less inviting.

Personally, I believe a referendum in the South would be passed 60/40, but it would not take much for that gap to close further.
 
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