Market trends - stock market

Gordon Gekko said:
You’re right. Some guy down in the pub buying UK equities and avoiding US tech firms has a better chance of managing a portfolio effectively than the Chief Investment Officer at a major investment bank.

The guy down in the pub also does a little heart surgery on the side and drafts legal agreements for aircraft leasing firms.

The public has had enough of experts.
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That’s quite some pub you go to. I only ever hear football talk.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
one cannot outperform the market and trying to do so is a mug's game.
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This is standard from efficient markets theory.


Gordon Gekko said:
My view or Joe Sod’s view is not as valid or valuable as, say, the Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs.
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This on the other hand shows a fundamental misunderstanding of efficient market theory. Which would say that your view, my view or any expert view are equally irrelevant because the market prices efficiently. Indeed the chief investment officer of Goldman is worse given his enormous salary.
 
cremeegg said:
This is standard from efficient markets theory.



This on the other hand shows a fundamental misunderstanding of efficient market theory. Which would say that your view, my view or any expert view are equally irrelevant because the market prices efficiently. Indeed the chief investment officer of Goldman is worse given his enormous salary.
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Now, the markets are efficient only if proper research and due diligence are done on investments. That provides part of the information that drives the efficiency of the market. I would argue (or maybe it's part of the theory and I've just forgotten) that markets are not efficient in the short term, but are over medium and long terms. Imperfect information can lead to inefficiencies, and active fund managers will tell you they can exploit these. I can see this arguement for small cap funds where there is less research and less information.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
I’ve a quarter of my portfolio in Gilts”

Incredible stuff, unless the poster lives in the UK.
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Were these opportunistic purchases or very recent ones ? Surely any government bonds bought during the COVID period and before it are down significantly in price as interest rates have shot up. There were lots of predictions that maybe we were at the peak of the interest rate cycle, the last week has proved otherwise.

Jay Powell of the fed said that they are still trying to shake off the effects of COVID, there are still supply disruptions, employers cant get workers, parts etc and the consumer is still very strong. So they are going to need alot higher interest rates to try and halt inflation. That's really bad for bonds and stocks but especially bonds
 
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basilbrush said:
Nothing that we don't already know and that hasn't been discussed many times before, but still a possibly relevant read: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ding-another-black-monday-stock-market-crash/
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Actually it's something that is not widely discussed on this site, the last one was in 2020 when the market was crashing. That turned out to be a real time snapshot of what people do in a stock market crash, the panic is real

Also it is interesting from an Irish perspective which also doesn't get that much discussion except when there are big things happening like the banking collapse.
Also due to the adverse taxation of ETFs here investors in Ireland are more likely to be buying shares directly and are more susceptible to market crashes than to ride them out in the relative safety of a broad spectrum ETF
 
Fortune said:
It took a while, but it eventually got on message "Tories good, Thatcher great, unions bad"
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They were certainly not subtle with that message.

I am not sure that I agree with their assessment that the West has been enfeebled over the past 15 years. I think 15 years ago it felt more obvious to me that Asia was going to overtake it than it does now. So, while I think that inflation will need to remain high for Western governments to inflate their debt away, and I expect the money printers to continue to go brrrr, and I wouldn't be surprised if there were substantial falls in asset values (despite the inflation and money printing), it feels to me like there is no alternative for global investors except to continue to invest in the West, so I am in fact more confident that things will be fine for investors in the West over the long term than I was in the past.
 
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galway_blow_in said:
When you see how high bond yields have gone, the market is still very strong,however I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday that if you look at the Russell 3000 ( which covers almost all tradable equities large and small cap in the USA ) , most companies are apparently below the price traded last October when the market is generally perceived to have put in a bottom?
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Even though the indices don't seem to be reflecting this but a large number of stocks have fallen alot in last few months. Obviously high interest rates are feeding through now to the general markets. The main indices seem to be holding up due to presence of the few mega stocks . The traditional high yielding stocks are suffering due to the comparison with bonds and their relatively high yields now. But the bond markets have had their worst performance in a century due to the very rapid rise in interest rates from their all time lows
 
Big change since that last post, stocks across the board up alot. It's actually not the tech stocks that are really performing but the old world stuff in Europe and UK that generates income now. Of course european stock markets helped by the new mega cap nova nordisk with their block buster weight loss drug. Alot of it seems to be that stocks that generate income are back in fashion since they compensate for inflation and are able to raise the price of their products
 
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