Market trends - stock market

[galway_blow_in]

Seeing as any thread covering the stock market is now pretty old , I thought I’d take the liberty of starting a fresh one

I’m up 16.02% YTD , slightly beating the S+P but this changed at times, a few Irish companies I bought at year lows have swayed the overall picture

When you see how high bond yields have gone, the market is still very strong,however I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday that if you look at the Russell 3000 ( which covers almost all tradable equities large and small cap in the USA ) , most companies are apparently below the price traded last October when the market is generally perceived to have put in a bottom?

I’m not bearish or bullish per say and I’ve a quarter of my portfolio now in ten year Gilts but when you observe how weak much of the market has been this past perceived strong year , a breakdown in the leaders would likely quickly lead to another bear market

I realise it’s often a relatively small number of companies that overwhelmingly drive market gains and at the end of the day none of us know future directions but it’s fun to chin wag about general activity?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I am sure this thread will help everyone get rich by outperforming the market in terms of stock picking and market timing.

Brendan

 

[galway_blow_in]

I am sure this thread will help everyone get rich by outperforming the market in terms of stock picking and market timing.

Brendan

Was on holiday in Croatia so hadn’t checked in but it’s amusing to see this site is satisfied with its tiny clientele and so can take pot shots at those outside the inner clique

 

[ClubMan]

I think that what @Brendan Burgess's meant with his slightly facetious comment was that nobody can time/predict the markets or successfully pick "winning" stocks in order to significantly outperform the market. As the cliché goes, all things being equal (e.g. appropriate diversified investment in reputable assets), it's time in the market not timing the market that matters.

 

[Fortune]

I think that what @Brendan Burgess's meant with his slightly facetious comment was that nobody can time/predict the markets or successfully pick "winning" stocks in order to significantly outperform the market. As the cliché goes, all things being equal (e.g. appropriate diversified investment in reputable assets), it's time in the market not timing the market that matters.

And taking insight from TV talking heads doesn't bode well for the winning potential here.

 

[TrundleAlong]

I follow about 10 U.K. FTSE shares. I buy when low and sell when high. By low, I mean when overall market sentiment is negative not when poor results are announced.

Working for me.

 

[ClubMan]

And taking insight from TV talking heads doesn't bode well for the winning potential here.

No idea what this means or is referring to.
Maybe you can explain?

 

[cremeegg]

No idea what this means or is referring to.
Maybe you can explain?

The Op says. ‘I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday’

 

[joe sod]

I think @galway_blow_in you are US focussed from debates we have had before, therefore the performance you have had is essentially a US market focussed. I have been moving most of my portfolio to Europe and UK for last 5 years or so. So I have alot of financials, oil , utilities etc based in Europe and UK so my portfolio has been unchanged over the last year with moderate gains. My portfolio was badly hit during the pandemic worse than the world averages but it recoverd rapidly after March 2020 and end of 2021 and 2022 was a great year.

I think the people that have experienced the biggest losses are those that were invested in supposedly safe sectors like bonds as inflation and interest rates have decimated the value of these assets. Anyone that bought those negatively yielding government bonds during 2020 were essentially giving their money to the government, they actually paid some of the bill for Covid. Maybe there should be an applause for those bond holders like for the essential workers

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I think @galway_blow_in you are US focussed from debates we have had before, therefore the performance you have had is essentially a US market focussed. I have been moving most of my portfolio to Europe and UK for last 5 years or so. So I have alot of financials, oil , utilities etc based in Europe and UK so my portfolio has been unchanged over the last year with moderate gains. My portfolio was badly hit during the pandemic worse than the world averages but it recoverd rapidly after March 2020 and end of 2021 and 2022 was a great year.

I think the people that have experienced the biggest losses are those that were invested in supposedly safe sectors like bonds as inflation and interest rates have decimated the value of these assets. Anyone that bought those negatively yielding government bonds during 2020 were essentially giving their money to the government, they actually paid some of the bill for Covid. Maybe there should be an applause for those bond holders like for the essential workers

So, disastrous results through solo running and making massive binary calls yourself.

 

[joe sod]

So, disastrous results through solo running and making massive binary calls yourself.

No, because I never sold anything (except for capital loss harvesting) but I didn't do any better than just buying the overall market. Yes I was too heavily invested in Europe and UK during Covid when only the US technology stocks were really performing so my portfolio was hit worse than the averages. However I was perfectly set up for inflation and the guys that were predicting that Covid was highly inflationary were correct but that seemed daft in 2020 when people were was no serious inflation since the early 80s.
Its a discussion forum everyone's experiences are valid, there should not be a hierarchy of opinions and thought

 

[Gordon Gekko]

No, because I never sold anything (except for capital loss harvesting) but I didn't do any better than just buying the overall market. Yes I was too heavily invested in Europe and UK during Covid when only the US technology stocks were really performing so my portfolio was hit worse than the averages. However I was perfectly set up for inflation and the guys that were predicting that Covid was highly inflationary were correct but that seemed daft in 2020 when people were was no serious inflation since the early 80s.
Its a discussion forum everyone's experiences are valid, there should not be a hierarchy of opinions and thought

That’s usually said by people who are demonstrably wrong. Do you accept that two decisions you’ve made were crazy?

1) To actively manage your portfolio yourself.

2) To actively avoid the US, and particularly US tech.

You’re an advert for how not to do things, yet you think you’ve the right to claim that your opinions and experiences are as valid as anyone else’s.

That’s one of the biggest problems in this post-Brexit, post Trumpian world we live in. Guess what? Everyone’s experiences and opinions are not equal or as valid. It’s that type of thinking that gets us conspiracy theorists. “I’m entitled to my opinion”…Yes. “It’s as valid as anyone else’s…No it isn’t.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi Gordon

I agree with you that an investor's opinion based on their short term experience is not as valid as the opinions based on years of research which show that one cannot outperform the market and trying to do so is a mug's game.

But it's a very common form of thinking. look at all the analysis from stockbrokers and journalists. Look at all the actively managed funds. It's wrong, but it's very common.

It's too big a leap to associate this with Brexit or Trump.

Brendan

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Hi Gordon

I agree with you that an investor's opinion based on their short term experience is not as valid as the opinions based on years of research which show that one cannot outperform the market and trying to do so is a mug's game.

But it's a very common form of thinking. look at all the analysis from stockbrokers and journalists. Look at all the actively managed funds. It's wrong, but it's very common.

It's too big a leap to associate this with Brexit or Trump.

Brendan

Hi Brendan,

It’s the particular form of thinking that I’m referring to. The ‘public has had enough of experts’ view. ‘Having a go’ at managing one’s own portfolio is analagous to self-diagnosing diseases via Google. It’s madness. My view or Joe Sod’s view is not as valid or valuable as, say, the Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs.

All the best,

Gordon

 

[Gordon Gekko]

“I’ve a quarter of my portfolio in Gilts”

Incredible stuff, unless the poster lives in the UK.

This thread had shades of “I had a rash on my leg, I googled it, figured out that I had Tanzanian Death Fever, and amputated my leg. How can I help you by sharing my wisdom and experience? Which is just as valid as Dr Sam McConkey’s infectious disease credentials because we’re all entitled to our opinions and they’re all equally valid!”

 

[PGF2016]

Yes I was too heavily invested in Europe and UK during Covid when only the US technology stocks were really performing

I always think of a football game where someone says 'we played great in the first half'.

No one cares about the first half or any 5, 10 or 15 minute window. It's the final result that matters.

What is the significance of the Covid period? Surely it's too small a window to be of any long term importance.

 

[joe sod]

I always think of a football game where someone says 'we played great in the first half'.

No one cares about the first half or any 5, 10 or 15 minute window. It's the final result that matters.

What is the significance of the Covid period? Surely it's too small a window to be of any long term importance.

I have been playing for 20 years now and will continue for another 10 probably . I'm well into the second half, yes I fell behind a bit in the first half because I went underweight US technology in the last few years. However I made alot of money on "old technology " stocks like Microsoft when bought back in 2011, also did well because was buying with euros at 1.45 dollars to the euro. However I was mistaken in selling it too early and missed the covid bounce.

As for Covid it was highly inflationary due to the production of goods being halted, employees put on social welfare and the production cycle is still not back to full capacity due to the difficulties in getting workers back to work in those jobs. Also the governments pumping so much money into the economies while simultaneously stopping production created a massive inflationary bulge

 

[S class]

Or the views of the chief investment officer of Lehmann Brothers.

Hi Brendan,

It’s the particular form of thinking that I’m referring to. The ‘public has had enough of experts’ view. ‘Having a go’ at managing one’s own portfolio is analagous to self-diagnosing diseases via Google. It’s madness. My view or Joe Sod’s view is not as valid or valuable as, say, the Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs.

All the best,

Gordon

 

[PGF2016]

However I made alot of money on "old technology " stocks like Microsoft when bought back in 2011, also did well because was buying with euros at 1.45 dollars to the euro.

Good for you. You timed that well.

However I was mistaken in selling it too early and missed the covid bounce.

That's unfortunate. You timed that badly.

As for Covid it was highly inflationary due to the production of goods being halted, employees put on social welfare and the production cycle is still not back to full capacity due to the difficulties in getting workers back to work in those jobs. Also the governments pumping so much money into the economies while simultaneously stopping production created a massive inflationary bulge

Something happened in the world and the stock market changed. Happens every day / month / year/ decade etc.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Or the views of the chief investment officer of Lehmann Brothers.

That shows a lack of understanding as to how the world works. The Chief Investment Officer of Lehman Brothers would have had nothing to do with its exposure to subprime debt etc.

I’m shocked to read contributions from posters who haven’t been invested in the US or US tech or who are chopping and changing their ‘portfolios’.

In most cases, a calamitous approach.