Mark Shipman's Investment course

foxyboxer

Frequent Poster
Messages
15
Hello,
I have read both Mark's Books and like the idea of long term investing.
As he says, luck rewards the prepared
Therefore, I am currently conducting my own due dilligence about where I can actually invest in an ETF when (hopefully, if), the next crossover happens in the markets.
What stockbrokers provide ETF's to track the following indices?
FTSE100, DOW, NIKKEI, S&P500, CAC 40, DAX, HANG SENG?

The indices have closed strongly this week and in the coming months a crossover in each may be possible and I'd like to be prepared to capitalise as it were.
Any suggestions or advice is appreciated.
 
R

rolysmithers

Guest
Mark Shipmans strategy

Guys, I was wondering who is following Shipmans advice at the moment and are in long term trades, or considering it.

I think his strategy is worth a go now and we can profit from rising markets now- would anybody like to club together to ensure we are in the right trades and managing risk correctly? Feel free to message me or contribute..

For anyone not Au fait, Mark Shipman advocates a long term investment stragegy using trends and spread bets as the vehicle.
 

ringledman

Frequent Poster
Messages
620
I like his views on the commodity boom but what he talks of is more trading than investing.

He has some good points about technical analysis regarding trading but little on the fundamentals to support long term investing from what I can remember.

A good technical trading analysis on commodities can be found at -http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/index.php
 

Daithi7

Frequent Poster
Messages
54
I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.

I'm just wondering
1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?

2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)

3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available from cash/treasuries over the same period?

I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.
 

croker

Frequent Poster
Messages
78
I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.

I'm just wondering
1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?

2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)

3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available from cash/treasuries over the same period?

I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.
Its been a long time since i've read his material but i believe he goes long over the 200-day moving average and shorts below that.
The one real-world example that i remember was crude oil last year. Following his advice you would have shorted oil at $110 which worked out well. It's probably the same with everything, if you know what you're doing you can make it work, if you dont then just tell everyone its crap and move on.
 

reynolds

Registered User
Messages
28
Just bought the book yesterday, leafed through his old book. Hopefully an interesting read
 

fiatmoney

Frequent Poster
Messages
35
I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.

I'm just wondering
1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?

2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)

3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available from cash/treasuries over the same period?

I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.
http://www.turtletrader.com/tpp.html

See if this will convince you...
 

Daithi7

Frequent Poster
Messages
54
Hi FiatM, Reynolds & Croker,

thanks for replies to date.

Croker: For clarity, Shipman's system is yes go long when 30 week moving average (MA) goes over 50 wk , but its just to sell when the 30 week M.A. goes below the 50 week (not to go short as you wrote).

Also he explicitly states that it is to take advantage of an upwardly trending market only (and to avoid lulls or big bear dips in these type of markets).

SO he maintains you don't (necessarily) need expertise in what you are investing, you just need to be pretty sure that it will trend upwards over the long term and also use the system to say when to get in and when to get out.

My query was and is: has anyone run this system (or algorythm) over any other market data over long term e.g. property market, ftse, gold, nasdaq, etc, etc to prove that it actually works on more than 1 set of market data????

and 2. how has its performance fared versus the no-risk investment returns available over the same period (such as cash dep rates or government bonds, etc) when applied to these markets??

As I think for anyone thinking of using such a trend following system these are 2 of the KEY KEY questions.

p.s. The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, revised by Jason Zweig (2002/3) specifically rubbishes such systematic approaches in chapters 4 &5. (This book is the fundamental investors bible for those unfamiliar with it ,and I would seriously recommend it to those who have not read it)
 

PMU

Frequent Poster
Messages
963
My query was and is: has anyone run this system (or algorythm) over any other market data over long term e.g. property market, ftse, gold, nasdaq, etc, etc to prove that it actually works on more than 1 set of market data????
I wasn’t aware of Mr Shipman’s system, but I had noticed the 30/50 crossover rule on ‘Market Buy and Sell signals’ on Rory Gillen’s new Irish InvestR Centre website:
http://www.investrcentre.com/buy_and_sell_signals/.

[InvestrCentre is referred to in this post: http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=125526]

I did a quick ‘1st cut’ analysis of this 30/50 moving average indicator on some of the asset classes in which I invest. Note I didn’t do it on the index values but on the values in euro of some of the EFTs, funds etc. that I use as investment vehicles. Let’s say, based on the results, I wouldn’t be betting on this approach as the road to riches. [Note that Mr Gillen’s ‘Buy & Sell signals’ also refers to the Coppock indicator, something you might find it prudent to investigate further.]
 
J

joself

Guest
Does anyone know about his new thing the Autonomous Millionaire? Is it worth getting?
 

jpd

Frequent Poster
Messages
1,699
Q. If the advice given in this book is so good, why does Marc Shipman have to offer courses/sell books ? Wouldn't he just follow the advice and make his fortune that way ?

A. Duh!
 
J

joself

Guest
On the Autonomous Millionaire website it says "Mark has recently been added to Global Investors “Top 100 Investors of All-Time”

...would they really do that if he wasn't making good money investing?
 
P

PW ask

Guest
As I understand it, Mark explains in one of the Autonomous Milionaire videos that he DOES make his fortune from investing and he doesn't NEED to offer books or courses at all.
 

dubrov

Frequent Poster
Messages
134
There are so many of these trend investing strategies going around at the moment that they probably have something to do with all the recent trending observed in the markets. Everything is rocketing up only to be slammed down later.

Fundamentals don't seem to have any influence on the short-term market value.

A lot of these trend investing strategies usually cover themselves with a lot of useful information about risk assessment and management. However, The actual entry and exit strategies are dubious to say the least.
 

dubrov

Frequent Poster
Messages
134
Well, if a strategy was that good why would you bother publishing it? The reason is probably because you'll make a lot more selling it to others than actually employing it yourself.

Even if you did it jsut for the good of humanity, if 10,000 other people were also employing the same strategy, you would really see some random returns.

Maybe there are some decent strategies out there but as the market changes so much I can't imagine any strategy based on technical analysis which will give any sort of stable returns
 

panitanfc

Registered User
Messages
20
Qwerty,

I read your post about Marks Shipmans trend following strategy. I'm just curious about his strategy and willing to learn more about this strategy. I've read his book-(The next big Investment)

I would like to have a chat or discussion with about spread betting as well and maybe we could talk about some other strategy about investments and spread betting.

I live in Dundrum, Dublin.

Regor
 

Rory Gillen

Frequent Poster
Messages
248
Mark Shipman wrote a good book 'Big Money, Little Effort, and backed the claims he made in that book with facts. His methodology is straight forward and can be measured. As a result of his book, I now use his approach as a 'technical' timing indicator on markets, along side other indicators. I was very grateful for having read his book.

I would not agree with comments that suggest everyone can read it all in a book - to me that is the same as saying that children need not attend school but could, instead, stay at home, study hard and then sit the 'Leaving Cert' and have an equal chance. Few humans learn like that. If I were you, and his course has been recommended to you by someone you know, I would do the course. Prehaps treat it as an investment in your own stockmarket education. It is alot easier to lose the same few hundred Euros if you are unprepared.

Rory Gillen
 

ccraig

Frequent Poster
Messages
359
what is the cheapest way to buy into an indices like s&p500? I would like to test out some of his strategies my broker charges too much % fees either side of a trade and using them would cut out a lot of profit if buy and sell signals were frequent. Also he warns of fake signals, does anyone know how to distinguish these!0
 
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