Major fall in BTC price (16th Jan)

Brendan Burgess said:
Hi fly

It's just the normal volatility.

I got excited before as it fell towards $6,000 so I am not excited now.

Brendan
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Go on outta that Brendan, I bet you're checking the price every hour! In fairness you must be sitting on a 7 or 8 grand profit at this stage!
 
I will buy some bitcoins if the price falls close to $5,000. It's insane how a few highly respected investors are predicting it will reach nearly $25,000 by the end of the year.
 
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Negotiator said:
Go on outta that Brendan, I bet you're checking the price every hour!
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Hi Negotiator

I had missed this.

You know that the mad thing is that you are not far off the truth.

Although falls or rises in the stock market would have a much bigger impact on me, I check Bitcoin more often.

That might be because I know that my position in Bitcoin is only temporary, whereas I am a long-term buy and holder of shares.

In practice, I don't even need to watch Bitcoin as I have set a limit of $3,000 - in other words, when it falls to $3,000, my position will be closed automatically.

It is a bit frustrating though how long it's taking for the price to fall to its true value of zero. I would be much happier if it crashed now and I would no longer have a position.

Having said that, the optimal outcome for me would be a drop to $3,000 and then a recovery back to $12,000 where I would sell short again.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
It is a bit frustrating though how long it's taking for the price to fall to its true value of zero. I would be much happier if it crashed now and I would no longer have a position.
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Spoken like a true Crypto trader!

You've made about 50% (maybe more including interest and more again return on capital deployed due to leverage etc) return in just a few short months and you wish your target would come quicker! It's funny how Cryptos trading has that effect on you regardless of which side of the trade you're on!

I would cash this out now as there seems to be decent enough Support around current levels and volumes have dried up a good bit too which could mean all the weak hands have been shaken out of the market leaving very few sellers.

We also seen a huge amount of FUD since the January including hackings, outright bans on exchanges and ICO's, Scams, Tether nervousness, traders being hit with massive tax bills forcing them to dump their positions etc etc.

I think we've had a pretty decent shakeout in the market now and people will be a lot more careful in choosing which coins they put money into. I think the massive increases of the past are long behind us now but wouldn't be surprised if the market ticks up throughout the summer.

Do I think it's possible it will go to $3k? Absolutely, but very unlikely imo.

Good luck with your trade though, it was a brave move and you deserve to be rewarded for the risk taken!
 
Negotiator said:
Good luck with your trade though, it was a brave move and you deserve to be rewarded for the risk taken!
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I will let the Boss speak for himself but I followed his recommendation and did a bit of shorting myself at 14,600. I can assure you it was anything but brave - I thought I was on to a sure thing. In fact I am so cowardly I got out around 8,400.
 
Credit where it's due....

Our lads on short positions have certainly done well based on current prices and what they got in at. Obviously the trick is to close out for significant profit, and if it were me, I would have been a bit like Duke and closed out already.

Brendan Burgess said:
.....

Although falls or rises in the stock market would have a much bigger impact on me, I check Bitcoin more often.

That might be because I know that my position in Bitcoin is only temporary, whereas I am a long-term buy and holder of shares.
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I suspect it may be the extreme volatility that is causing you to check prices so often, and the fact that you may not be used to taking on high levels of risk.

Would you ever go to a casino (or an online casino) and play a few hands of cards, or roulette etc. money at stake, out of interest ?

I see trading in cryptos as having a level of risk closer to gambling, than dealing in quoted equities, to be honest.

The Coinbase app allows you to set alerts, to tell you when the price of certain cryptos has moved up or down. You can set numerous alerts at different prices for say Bitcoin, and get a little notification on your phone when that price has been reached. It may be a more convenient way to feed the addiction than having to go to a website on a regular basis, to check prices

It is a bit frustrating though how long it's taking for the price to fall to its true value of zero. I would be much happier if it crashed now and I would no longer have a position.
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To be honest, I think part of the frustration for you is that you want it to go to zero, so you can be proven entirely right here given the strong stance you've taken against Bitcoin and other cryptos having any value. That's not a criticism here btw.

You have an opportunity here to close out your current position and make quite a nice profit, surely you must be tempted ?

There would be nothing to stop you taking new (smaller) positions into the future, even at lower prices than $3k and profit further if your belief that Bitcoin is worthless does come to pass. In the interim, you get to cash in and enjoy some of the benefit of you past wisdom.

Having said that, the optimal outcome for me would be a drop to $3,000 and then a recovery back to $12,000 where I would sell short again.

Brendan
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If that happens, I think every one of us will be shorting Bitcoin
 
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MrEarl said:
I see trading in cryptos as having a level of risk closer to gambling, than dealing in quoted equities, to be honest.
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Mr Earl,

I don't see myself as "trading in cryptos".

It may well be gambling but with the odds stacked in my favour. I understand the risk involved and I might lose my stake.

I have short sold a bag of hot air at $14,600 which is currently $7,700.

That seems very different from the punters who are betting on the short-term moves based on codswallop such as this:











I must say that I have never liked "double bottom necklines". A bit to bearish for my liking.

Brendan
 

You are absolutely trading in cryptos Brendan, you've taking a short position on Bitcoin.

The examples you gave of traders using technical analysis for Cryptos is not really much different to using it for equities. Whilst I believe TA can be a tool in trading to those who fully understand it, it can't be relied upon solely. So my point is, this type of madness happens in both equities and crypto trading!
 
Brendan Burgess said:
It is a bit frustrating though how long it's taking for the price to fall to its true value of zero.
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This would suggest Brendan that you have a timeframe in mind as to when it will fall to zero?
I would have thought a bag-of-hot-air, that once it burst, its only trajectory would be to zero?
 
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