Major fall in BTC price (16th Jan)

jman0war said:
Charlie Munger, does he even have a cell phone?

I generally take the view that severe statements spewed from the mouths of snakes like him is an indicator of how threatened by the concept they are.
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Your comments are disgraceful.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I stand to be ejected, but I doubt very much that these were "listed in bitcoin" in the conventional sense of that word. My guess is that they were listed in USD with a caption "Bitcoin most welcome". This is fake news.
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Clearly, they are listed in Bitcoin. It's there to see. However, your issue is that they have based pricing off of the USD. Big deal. What many here (and elsewhere) fail to bear in mind is that this is a technology and a currency that is in a fluid state of development. It took a couple of hundred years to move from coin to paper, 40 years to move from paper to plastic. Clearly, there is a volatility issue with Bitcoin (and all crypto's) right now. Over time, it's expected that this will dissipate. People recognise that this is an issue right now and whilst they may want to list in BTC, you can't blame them for basing pricing off the USD. You say this means it's a failure. You can't call that until the whole thing plays out.

Gordon Gekko said:
Your comments are disgraceful.
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I don't think that's the case. Munger's Berkshire Hathaway colleague - the esteemed Warren Buffett - got it wrong on Google and Amazon. He has stated that he didn't understand them and that he doesn't invest in things he doesn't understand. I'd imagine it's from that point of view 'jmanOwar' is coming from. Munger calling for BTC to be wiped out is out of order.
 
Pegging a price in bitcoin to the current exchange rate for USD seems reasonable enough.
Since Bretton Woods 1945 the major currencies of the world have been pegged to the USD.

The main stream media don't seem to have issue with this.
For example: someone in the western world uses Bitcoin to purchase some illegal drug from the dark web.
The media have no problem at all citing Bitcoin as money in this scenario.
A closer look at the transactions may reveal:
The drug was farmed and produced in Columbia -> farmers paid in Peso -> drug cartel smuggled drugs into US or Europe and were paid in USD or EUR -> local dealers bought drugs in USD or EUR -> someone buys drug from dark web (local dealer) and paid in Bitcoin.
Since Bitcoin was that last currency used in this transaction, i guess that's what really counts here.
Yet if it's property, then it doesn't count?
 
I was unwilling to deactivate my ad blocker for that link, so I have been unable to put my finger in that wound.

Maybe it is "listed" in bitcoin but I would like to see the small print. We have established that the Dubai guys want USD not bitcoin and having received their bitcoin they immediately convert to USD, being shrewd businessmen. So why would they run the enormous risk in pricing and listing in bitcoin? If BTC falls from $20K at time of the print run the apartments get snapped up and the entrepeneurs make huge losses. If they get priced at $7K and BTC rises to $10k no sane person would touch them.

I understand that 50 of 1300 apartments were listed in bitcoin the rest presumably listed in dollars. Assuming these are comparable apartments the list prices will need to be consistent, this would even be true for listings in different fiat. With the BTC/$ exchange rate gyrating violently on an hourly basis the owners must have some mechanism for adjusting the list price. My guess is that the small print indicates that the list price is in fact a guide price and the true price is USD and the BTC price will be adjusted at the exchange rate at time of sale.
 
I assume they have to pay the bank in USD
 
By the way, you can download free apps for your cell phone to calculate current price of bitcoin to USD or EUR or GBP or whatever.
 
In your rationale Duke, when drugs are purchased on the dark web using bitcoin, is that just a gimmick and in reality they are purchased using USD?
 
jman0war said:
Since Bitcoin was that last currency used in this transaction, i guess that's what really counts here.
Yet if it's property, then it doesn't count?
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If the final reason for dealing in bitcoin was because that was genuinely the preferred "currency" then yes that is bitcoin acting as a currency. Following on your example that reason may be a desire for concealing criminality. And indeed that may be behind the listing of apartments in bitcoin.

I remember the old days when life companies, the banks, nay even An Post advertised for funds with the caption "complete confidentiality guaranteed". We all know what that was a euphemism for. So possibly listing apartments for sale in bitcoin is a euphemism for "hot money welcome". That's fair enough, I am not joining the moral/eco crusade against bitcoin but if this is its ultimate destiny as a currency that would not justify anything near current price levels which are based on a speculation that it will eventually become mainstream.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
If the final reason for dealing in bitcoin was because that was genuinely the preferred "currency" then yes that is bitcoin acting as a currency.
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I think imaging their reasons is immaterial.
They could accept sea shells for the apartments and that means they've used sea shells as a currency.
 
Why can clearly clever people like Duke etc not accept that Bitcoin will be worth whatever people are willing to pay for it ? I am just confused by this , I think Bitcoin is a joke but clearly others don't and I realise I can't convert these people and I can't lower the value of Bitcoin for them , if people want to accept and use Bitcoin to buy things then they will , all these arguments are pointless its worthless , it will eventually be worthless , nobody knows other than it will be worth what people are willing to pay for it like lots of other worthless things in life that people value.
 
Hi Fella

Bitcoin is worthless today.

It is priced at $10,000. It's price is $10,000 more than it is worth.

Eventually its price will fall to its worth.

Or to put it in your language, people will only be prepared to pay nothing or close to nothing for it.

Brendan
 

Saying the same thing over and over doesn't make it any more correct though. The longer it goes on like it is the less chance your prediction will come true , at what stage are you going to admit your wrong?
How can you make the world see sense Brendan ? I can tell everyone in the world don;t bother reading horoscopes or paying a fortune teller its worthless they won't change there mind and its a multi billion pound industry.

Me saying " Fortune telling is worthless and eventually everyone will see so and no one will ring them 2 euro a minute lines " I could repeat that for my life but i'd be right and be wrong , your right and your wrong also.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
We have established that the Dubai guys want USD not bitcoin and having received their bitcoin they immediately convert to USD, being shrewd businessmen.
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You've 'established' no such thing. They facilitated payment in BTC because clearly there are customers out there that want to pay in BTC. Being 'shrewd businessmen', they may have converted to USD (if that's the case?) as it's accepted by all that there is a price volatility issue with Bitcoin currently. So what?

Duke of Marmalade said:
I think we have 100% agreement on that
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You can rolly eyes away all you want. Establishing a global currency doesn't happen overnight. You'll baulk at the suggestion but there are strong indications that BTC is less volatile than it used to be (and yes, you'll use the recent months example - and in spite of that, it's true). You can continue to judge an unfinished currency that has as yet not come even close to reaching maturity at this stage in its development. However, to do so is inaccurate in my view....but each to their own.

@Brendan / Fella : I'm onboard with the idea that it can go down to zero...i'm not stating that it will - I'm just open to the possibility that it might. However, must it play out this way? If we've established that it's all related to market sentiment, can you not envisage a scenario where such sentiment doesn't fall by the way-side?
 
Fella said:
I can tell everyone in the world don;t bother reading horoscopes or paying a fortune teller its worthless they won't change there mind and its a multi billion pound industry.
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You are right. It is very difficult to change people's mind with logic.

Remember the Women Empowering Women? It's not unlike Bitcoin. They claimed it was a way to empower women and that men wanted to close it down because it wasn't male dominated. There was no talking to them.

Likewise there is no talking to people who would exchange a house for a tulip or $20,000 for a bag of hot air, even if it's based on blockchain technology.

But bubbles burst and this will burst.

It is important to repeat it though - it's not going to convert Shortie or FP or any of the others. But it may well help someone who is considering it. And it may help Shortie. He has reduced his position and maybe the discussion on AAM has helped him making this decision.

Brendan
 
tecate said:
If we've established that it's all related to market sentiment, can you not envisage a scenario where such sentiment doesn't fall by the way-side?
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I might undervalue a house at €100k and you might overvalue it at €200k. But it's worth something. Its worth can be estimated by the rent saved over my life-time or some other financial calculation. Sentiment may be optimistic for many years or pessimistic for many years.

But Bitcoin is worth nothing. Sentiment and greed has given it a price for which there is simply no financial basis. That will collapse at some stage.

Brendan
 

The more people come out and talk down Bitcoin publicly the higher the price seems to get , what if it ends up been valued at 100k a coin we may not be helping shortie at all .

I was thinking about bubbles I think people are too quick to point to bubbles that burst after the event , there are lots of things that bubbled but never burst then people never call them a bubble in the first place , so do all bubbles burst probably not , i think its some kind of bias to say " bubbles burst" that is generally said in hindsight.

I think it would be fair to say if you couldn't of envisioned Bitcoin ever going from 0 to 20k then you are not in the position to point to its future direction, thats the way I judge myself.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
But Bitcoin is worth nothing. Sentiment and greed has given it a price for which there is simply no financial basis. That will collapse at some stage.
Brendan
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I keep an open mind. Perhaps you're right. However, latent greed arrived in November. For most before that, it wasn't such a speculative item. I myself didn't get involved in BTC with a view towards making fast money. I believed in the idea of it - as did most way back then - as a transactional currency that was out from under the thumb of the banking elite. It's fair to say I think - that most didn't see this major rise in value coming pre-2013/4. I did get caught up in it - and can't complain about that but it wasn't the pretext for my initial involvement.

If everything works on sentiment and greed, can a FIAT currency not fall then...?
 

Problem is that Bitcoin was always speculative. It's not a currency. It's simply an asset that people own. They might be able to exchange it for something (unlikely at the moment) so all they can do is buy and sell it just like any other unproductive asset like a limited edition picture. Mightn't always be the case but it is now. The whole area of Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies has been taken over by speculators and complete fraudsters. Of course, there are people like yourself who genuinely believe in the concept and with good reason but there is still no reason for all this hype around something like this. Other than it has turned into a complete irrational bubble.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the breakeven cost of Bitcoin is? At what price, does it stop being cost effective to mine as I would imagine the mining costs are huge.
 
Sunny said:
Problem is that Bitcoin was always speculative.
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I don't agree with that. That wasn't the reason it was established in the first instance. I've just told you I didn't get involved in btc for speculative reasons (at the outset).

Sunny said:
It's not a currency. It's simply an asset that people own.
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It's recognised as a currency in many countries.

Sunny said:
They might be able to exchange it for something (unlikely at the moment) so all they can do is buy and sell it just like any other unproductive asset like a limited edition picture. Mightn't always be the case but it is now.
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It can be used to purchase goods and services. Is that function severely curtailed at the moment given that BTC has hit a scaling issue? Absolutely. Can that issue be overcome? - the signs are that it can and it will...and most likely before the year is out, we will see signs of that.

Sunny said:
The whole area of Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies has been taken over by speculators and complete fraudsters.
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Yes, fickle money came into play from November onwards - no doubt. As regards the fraudsters, anyone can see that they are just using 'bitcoin' as a cover. Previously, it was penny stocks. Next year, they will cloak their scam in something else. They have nothing to do with cryptocurrency in reality.

Sunny said:
Of course, there are people like yourself who genuinely believe in the concept and with good reason but there is still no reason for all this hype around something like this. Other than it has turned into a complete irrational bubble.
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In the earlier years, I wanted people to know about it and understand it. This sensationalising of it ...I agree that it's unhelpful....and it's not helping it to be understood properly either. I've benefited from it - but that's just happenstance.
 
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