Wanted to update this thread as there have been a few developments. They mostly affect my thinking re the London flat. Many thanks for all your v helpful comments last year
The first development is that my lovely long-term tenants are leaving. I have increased the rent to 1900 a month, so the return is much better now
It was:
- Gross annual rent of 18000 less mortgage interest of 3200, service charge and ground rent of ~2000 and maintenance fund of ~1000 = ~ 11800 profit
- Tax at 40% on the taxable profits (mortgage interest no deductible) = 6000. Less interest credit of 20% on 3200, net tax due 5360
- post-tax cash flow of 6400. with ~132k in the flat that's a crappy 5% cash-on-cash return post tax. at that level I totally agree that paying down mortgage makes sense
But at 1900 a month, 22800 a year gross rent, the post-tax cash return goes up to 7.1%
The second development is that I have taken advice on the move (as suggested above, thanks miser) and am assured that I will be non-domiciled in Ireland. We move in August/September. This means that if I do not remit income from the flat to Ireland, there will be no Irish tax. But there will also be effectively no UK tax either, starting in the 2027/28 tax year, as I will retain my personal allowance as a UK citizen. Together with the mortgage-interest credit, it takes tax to zero.
If take out 50k of equity when I remortgage in april 2027, even at a higher rate for a non-resident landlord (HSBC has 4.7% right now), my cash-on-cash post tax return is circa 10%. I just...struggle to justify turning that down.
And that doesn't even include very gentle equity growth. If the flat did as well over the next five years as it has done over the last five, during a pandemic when one-beds in zone 2 were the pits, that adds another 5% cash-on-cash. There will be CGT there eventually, unless I just...never sell, and keep remortgaging and release equity when it's there
I would send the tax-free income stream to a brokerage account in the US where I am a citizen (the flat makes a paper loss for the IRS due to mortgage deductibility and depreciation). I would then leave it there to grow until a future stint in the US, or anywhere outside Ireland, which will almost certainly come as partner is a diplomat. If I want to get really cute I could take a sabbatical from work in the first year of a foreign posting, and draw down the entire US brokerage account completely tax free.
May not work out of course (BOE rates may rise from here). But large Irish mortgage is being overpaid maximally anyway, and fixed for five years. There's be big fees to pay it down more using equity from the London flat, and I'd be giving up 10% returns after tax *on top* of the 3.55% returns from paying down the mortgage. Just seems...not a good call!
Talk me out of this (again! I know, I'm sorry, feel free to just tell me I'm being annoying and you've already said your piece. to my mind non-dom and market rent changes the equation)