ISEQ ETF plummeting

W

WGT

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Hi,
I suppose people are getting sick of posts like this. First of all let me say that i'm in this for the long haul. Still I invested 10K in the ISEQ ETF in March 2007 and It's now worth 3,169.
I don't need the money now, and I know this is just a paper loss, but surely the only way is up from here. Isn't it?
And don't reply saying "Past performance is no indication of blah blah blah..."
 
WGT said:
but surely the only way is up from here. Isn't it?
Click to expand...
Even if the only way is up (itself debatable), the real question is how long will it take to get back up? The Irish stock market has had 6 years when it experienced falls of greater than 25%. These were 2007 (-26%); 2002 (-30%); 1990 (-29%); 1974 (-47%); 1920 (- 25%) and 1826 (-37%). [In 2008 to date it has fallen about 56%.] So if you had invested in these ‘bad years’ how many years would it have taken to break even in nominal terms? It would have taken: 2002 (3 years); 1990 (4 years); 1974 (2 years) and 1920 (3 years). Breaking even in real terms would have taken longer. But if you had been unfortunate enough to invest at the start of 1826 it would have taken 19 years to regain your losses in nominal terms (and longer in real terms). So is this bad year more like 1826 or like the others? I’ve no idea, but the Irish stock market has never before suffered two consecutive years of significant (i.e. >25%) losses.
 
up is not the only way. it can go down further or sideways for a long time to come.
 
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