Is wall street turning into a bear market

Yea I think the stock market is long due a correction. From what Ive been reading it is best to stay out of the market for the next 6 months or so. What about the Iseq dominated by banks and construction, it is long due a correction. I would love to know what proportion of the Iseq is foreign owned and what proportion is irish owned. My suspicion is that more and more irish people are invested in the Iseq
 
joe sod said:
From what Ive been reading it is best to stay out of the market for the next 6 months or so.
Click to expand...

What if there's no correction within the next six months?

The problem with stock market speculation is that for each pundit that says the market is due a correction, you'll get another one saying it's a great time to invest.

I think the best policy is to ignore media speculation on stockmarket direction altogether, most of it is rubbish.
 
Cant read the subs only link...

A bear market when we are at multi year highs?
Calling tops is not easy but calling a bear market now?
I have been very surprised how strong the market has been in the last couple of months, many where expecting a large correctoin before Christmas.


If you are trying to make money from the timing of these things good luck, you will need it!
 
A down trend of lower lows broken only by lower highs is the usual technical sign of a bear market. No sign of that in the general indices yet!

Bearish scenarios prophesising massive stock market corrections are very appealing and massively profitable to those on the right side of the trade. However, predicting when they will occur is almost impossible. Meanwhile as an investor you are either not making money (by staying out of the market) or worse losing money shorting it.
 
Yea I agree that in general you cannot time markets. But nearly every stock market worlwide has risen since the 2003, when there has been no big corrections, when there are so much that can go wrong now, are the markets really pricing in all the risks. Im not saying stay out of the market but i am saying enter it with extreme caution and with more caution than at any time since 2003. The markets are heavily leveraged now with an awful lot of cheap borrowed money involved.
 
Couldn't agree more. It has been an extraordinarily long time since either the last 2% or 10% correction on the S&P 500. However, this does not imply a correction is imminent and it certainly does not imply that the answer to the OP's question is positive.
 
whathome said:
I think the best policy is to ignore media speculation on stockmarket direction altogether, most of it is rubbish.
Click to expand...

The trick is to distinguish between media speculation and media analysis. Dont think the latter should be ignored.
 
phoenix_n said:
The trick is to distinguish between media speculation and media analysis. Dont think the latter should be ignored.
Click to expand...

There is no difference. You can have any number of media "analysts" saying different things. If you're feeling bullish you will find lots of analysis to support your view, likewise if you're feeling bearish. It's a waste of time in my opinion. Educate yourself, do your own analysis on which stock you want to buy and make a decision. If you like the company and the price - buy it.

This article was written in June 2006, mentions how the S&P nears 2nd longest correction free run:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2006-06-26-sandp-usat_x.htm

S&P index is up 15% since then. There's no hidden rule that a market must correct after a certain amount of time without a correction.
It's slot machine mentality to believe that markets should move in a certain direction after some period of time.
 
Agree with this as well-when buying a share u should never reply on somebody else recommendation whether through media or friends.

Do your own analysis and based on this make the decision to buy or not.
My own criteria is p/e,dividend,blue chip,cash flow and gearing and I have found some solid gains as well as a couple of dogs.

Wall street is more fundamental in nature than Nasdaq and should be better able to cope with shocks of world economy.

P/E has dropped considerably to high teens so this should give it some support to current valuations
 
Well we have had a correction yesterday. However I think it is not just a blip but the start of something bigger. Yes there is now also a bit of a rebound going on but the fright has now set in. From my reading the japanese yen rose in value yesterday and this is the key to the situation. Speculators are borrowing in yen because it is so cheap to invest in stocks all over the world. Yesterday was the start of the reversal in this which is why the yen rose in value.
 
joe sod said:
Well we have had a correction yesterday. However I think it is not just a blip but the start of something bigger. Yes there is now also a bit of a rebound going on but the fright has now set in. From my reading the japanese yen rose in value yesterday and this is the key to the situation. Speculators are borrowing in yen because it is so cheap to invest in stocks all over the world. Yesterday was the start of the reversal in this which is why the yen rose in value.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree. Risk has been priced out of the equation in global stock markets and everything else. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity is the cry. There is no risk anymore now that we have so much liquidity sloshing about the globe and a mass of unfathomable complicated derivatives to speculate with. Completely ignoring that liquidity is just like (and directly related to) confidence. It always seems ever present until it actually disappears. Risk will be priced back into the market eventually.

However, that doesn't change whathome's point that once you have identified a company that is "good value" (however you might define that value) the fluctuations of the stock market are largely irrelevant. Many companies are trading at outrageously optimistic prices but that will always be the case. There is still value out there (amazingly).

Just to add - it's probably wrong to say stock market movements are "irrelevant" they in fact create opportunities. Be a buyer of dips not a chaser of blips as they say.
 
room305 said:
Just to add - it's probably wrong to say stock market movements are "irrelevant" they in fact create opportunities. Be a buyer of dips not a chaser of blips as they say.
Click to expand...

Exactly - weeks like this one just bring more companies into a price range where they could be interesting to buy ... although as always I would prefer if there were more opportunities created!
 
If you're an investor, it's probably time to start looking at defensive stocks i.e. Healthcare & consumables.

Investment banks are beginning to recommend this as they're expecting volatility in the markets this year & next.
 
ixus said:
If you're an investor, it's probably time to start looking at defensive stocks i.e. Healthcare & consumables.

Investment banks are beginning to recommend this as they're expecting volatility in the markets this year & next.
Click to expand...

Judging by the run up in these stocks over the past few months I'd say that boat has well and truly been missed here.
 
there are some great blue chip solid companies that have have dipped this week..the dip presents great discounts/better value for investors

once you are buying a company with a relatively low pe, good growth, a boot of cash and a good positive balance sheet history...you shouldnt have to worry too much about the economy etc...this was the basis of ben grahams success and warren buffet...

look on the dip at the moment as a spring 'sale'...
 
smiley said:
there are some great blue chip solid companies that have have dipped this week..the dip presents great discounts/better value for investors

once you are buying a company with a relatively low pe, good growth, a boot of cash and a good positive balance sheet history...you shouldnt have to worry too much about the economy etc...this was the basis of ben grahams success and warren buffet...

look on the dip at the moment as a spring 'sale'...
Click to expand...

Conditioned dip buying usually works out but the key word is usually. There will be times when it goes horribly wrong as well. However, as you said a good company is a good company.

One thing to be wary of (and I hear it all the time on business news channels) is automatically accepting that "p/e's are at historically low levels". Not only is this statement false, it implies that there is some kind of correlation between general market p/e levels and future returns. That's before we even get into discussing the fact the percentage profit from turnover is quite elevated.

Not saying stocks will go down, just that people shouldn't automatically accept that current valuations are "cheap" because somebody in the media says so.

Find good companies and buy at a price you like.
 
yep..i agree...this market sell off is getting interesting though....one would wonder whats going to happen next....its a bit like dominos falling over at the moment and maybe picking up momentum....this carry trade effect and sudden appreciation of the yen may have quite an ill effect...interesting to watch..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top