Is today's announcement the best thing since sliced bread?
Some thoughts on what could happen as a result.
1. Deposit interest rates from Irish banks may fall significantly - especially if Irish banks can borrow at sovereign rates.
There's a fair chance we'll be kissing goodbye to those 6% - 8% accounts pretty soon. Fixing your rate now mightn't be a bad idea.
2. The government may now feel justified in hiking DIRT substantially - this guarantee has to be paid for somehow.
A rumour of a DIRT increase had been doing the rounds anyway.
3. Significant moral hazard. All those dodgy loans to developers, speculators and flippers - will we bother calling them in now? Or will we just roll them over for another couple of years.
Sure we can borrow another few hundred million to tide us over - guaranteed by the taxpayer!
The guy struggling to pay a 40-year mortgage may just have handed a get-out-of-jail card to reckless bankers, developers, speculators and flippers.
4. Are there opportunities for hedge funds and hostile foreign bank takeovers to exploit the guarantee at the taxpayer's expense?
5. Government bond credit default spreads have widened from 30bps to 60bps following today's announcement. In other words, potential lenders to Ireland Inc now view the economy as a more risky prospect.
Those billions we need to borrow to balance the books in 2009 are going to cost more.
The devil really is in the detail here. Something had to be done, but let's not get carried away on a wave of euphoria. Let's hope the government draft watertight, detailed and responsible terms and conditions for this guarantee.