"Churning"by brokers.perhaps!!The vast majority of alts are still well below all time highs. SOL which has been on a rip lately is roughly $200 below all time high.
It is all relative on when you enter the market, those entering in 2021 are probably still nursing losses, those that got in a decade ago are probably doing alright
I know most of my trades would have been better if I had just HODL'd instead of swapping in an out of alts.
It's mainly based on a belief in the economic soundness of the state(s) backing the currency. Up to a point that's psychological as well, but it's backed up by objective criteria (productivity, stability, debt, etc). Regarding crypto, its value is purely a function of a belief in its value, but that belief is self-referential. People believe it has value because they see other people acting as though it has value, but there's no underlying economic reality to it.The value of the euro and dollar and every currency is based purely on social belief that it holds value
The only edge fiat has is the use of force. There's nothing else. Do we know how much fiat is in circulation at a given time? If you're to tag in those items you mention above, then we can tag in maths for bitcoin. Transparent and fixed supply, known circulation, etc.It's mainly based on a belief in the economic soundness of the state(s) backing the currency. Up to a point that's psychological as well, but it's backed up by objective criteria (productivity, stability, debt, etc). Regarding crypto, its value is purely a function of a belief in its value, but that belief is self-referential. People believe it has value because they see other people acting as though it has value, but there's no underlying economic reality to it.
I continued to buy sol all the way down to $8 when other people wrote it off, and it's up 674% YTDThe vast majority of alts are still well below all time highs. SOL which has been on a rip lately is roughly $200 below all time high.
It is all relative on when you enter the market, those entering in 2021 are probably still nursing losses, those that got in a decade ago are probably doing alright
I know most of my trades would have been better if I had just HODL'd instead of swapping in an out of alts.
The fact that supply is fixed doesn't give it any underlying value. It just makes some people think that it's valuable (because they falsely equate scarcity with value) and thereby creates a self-fulfilling proposition. But like any mental bubble it easily implodes once it's punctured.Transparent and fixed supply, known circulation, etc.
When you say bubble, are you referring to bitcoin or crypto?The fact that supply is fixed doesn't give it any underlying value. It just makes some people think that it's valuable (because they falsely equate scarcity with value) and thereby creates a self-fulfilling proposition. But like any mental bubble it easily implodes once it's punctured.
Any non-fiat instrumentWhen you say bubble, are you referring to bitcoin or crypto?
The fact that supply is fixed doesn't give it any underlying value. It just makes some people think that it's valuable (because they falsely equate scarcity with value) and thereby creates a self-fulfilling proposition. But like any mental bubble it easily implodes once it's punctured.
but it's backed up by objective criteria (productivity, stability, debt, etc
But like any mental bubble it easily implodes once it's punctured.
Ok so after 14 years and being the best performing asset of the last decade, you still think bitcoin its a bubble? WowAny non-fiat instrument
I'm also curious, if bitcoin and crypto is all a bubble, what do you invest in?The fact that supply is fixed doesn't give it any underlying value. It just makes some people think that it's valuable (because they falsely equate scarcity with value) and thereby creates a self-fulfilling proposition. But like any mental bubble it easily implodes once it's punctured.
Nothing exciting I'm afraid. Fixed term savings accounts and AVCs. By the way, I'm not saying people can't make money with crypto. It's just that they need to time their exits really well.what do you invest in?
It always happens. There’s always a crash with crypto. It’s essentially a pyramid scheme, which is why there’s 20 different versions of crypto currency out thereI really wish you the best of luck but logically speaking the crypto hype can only end one way. Question is when, not if.
The thing though is that there’s only one version of Euro and one version of the Dollar. There’s institutions and you can make all payments with them. With crypto there’s many different versions, many who are clearly valued due to speculation, and they don’t have a firm backing. It’s essentially gambling with your chances using themNot saying you're wrong, but bad example. The value of the euro and dollar and every currency is based purely on social belief that it holds value.
For the past 6+ years here, the discussion has centered primarily around bitcoin rather than "crypto". They're two very different considerations. Bitcoin is no pyramid scheme. It fails the definition of a pyramid scheme before you even start to assert such a thing.It always happens. There’s always a crash with crypto. It’s essentially a pyramid scheme, which is why there’s 20 different versions of crypto currency out there
There are many fiat currencies in the world, and at any given time, there's a list of them being devalued to an extent such that they're vaporizing people's life savings. Pick any point in the timeline of the history of fiat money and show me when this wasn't happening in the world.The thing though is that there’s only one version of Euro and one version of the Dollar.
Fiat currency is backed by nada since the gold standard went away. In relative terms, fiat is the big experiment here. It's not had that long of a history.With crypto there’s many different versions, many who are clearly valued due to speculation, and they don’t have a firm backing.
I stand by what I said then, and I'm glad I acted on it. What I didn't anticipate as soon as then has been the recent ETF approvals, which is more good news. Looking like this will probably be a great year for Bitcoin.The way I see it, the major declines of this cycle ended 9 months ago when we hit 16k last June. Everything since then is volatility in an essentially sideways market. All the weak hands have had the events needed to induce them to sell, and have done so. The halving alone can provide enough narrative to start a positive feedback loop for the next bull market in the next year or two, but an increase in fiat liquidity due to interest rate hikes ending, the war in Ukraine ending or continued problems in legacy finance can all help too, if they happen in that timeframe.
The only thing that gives me pause in terms of my optimism for Bitcoin in the short term is that while McWilliam's bitcoin obituary at 16k marked the bottom perfectly, I fear if in a similar vein his recent "Bitcoin is back, Why?" podcast which I can only describe as an eating contest of humble pie and confusion may signal a local top.Special thanks for this rally go out to @Cameo for creating a "Short Bitcoin" thread, and David McWilliams for his latest podcast yesterday dancing on bitcoin's (empty) grave. We couldn't have found a bottom without ye.
Max (that's what his buddy calls him in the podcast is not my expert of last resort by any means. Nonetheless there is a lot in this podcast which suggests he has been reading my posts and I guess I too have egg on my face over my predictions for its price. I would skip to about 8.32 in the podcast unless you want to listen to a lot of waffle about Benjamin Franklin.The only thing that gives me pause in terms of my optimism for Bitcoin in the short term is that while McWilliam's bitcoin obituary at 16k marked the bottom perfectly, I fear if in a similar vein his recent "Bitcoin is back, Why?" podcast which I can only describe as an eating contest of humble pie and confusion may signal a local top.
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