The deemed disposal rules are great for politicians, who cannot think beyond the next election, as it gives them money in the here-and-now to spend.
One unfortunate side-affect of it is that, were a prolonged downturn to happen, an Irish investor would still likely have gains on their investments versus the purchase price of 8 years prior - but many would be forced sellers of their holdings at low prices to cover tax bills.
It'd be quite an annoyance to have been investing in a world ETF at a €100 average eight years ago, be continuing to buy units at an average of €200 last year and, after a 25% downturn, be selling at €150 this year to cover a tax bill. Of course, plans should be made in advance for such a scenario - but it's too complex for the masses; many of whom would feel duped as they'd see it more as selling last years units at a €50 loss to pay the taxman.
Basically, deemed disposal gives politicians money to spend today; to the detriment of the overall long-term wealth of the country.
There is, I believe, €170 billion sitting in Irish deposit accounts at the moment. The majority of these funds likely belong to the lower-middle class as the wealthy tend to be less likely to have large proportions of their wealth sitting in low-interest deposit accounts.
We can only guess as to what percentage of this €170 billion would have been invested versus deposited with banks today if, back in January 2008, an ISA-style savings account were introduced instead of deemed disposal. What we do know for sure is that, like in the UK with ISA's, every financial advisor worth listening to would have been advising clients to invest as much as possible of their long-term savings into these products after their pension and short term financial needs were taken care of.
Looking at the 15 year chart of the MSCI world index, had 25% of the €170 billion been invested in the early years, it would have quadrupled by now. That'd be €127.5 billion still left on deposit and €42.5 billion having being invested and growing back to €170 billion.
From a long-term perspective, the total tax take on this pot, which has increased in size by €127.5 billion, would be much, much higher as the government are only raising pitiful levels of DIRT from it. Basically, the two eventual options for this money are for it to be spent in the economy, leading to the multiplier affect that has through the economy, or left growing to eventually result in the likelihood of a significant increased take in CAT on inheritance. However, it's few politicians that would advocate for a policy where the significance of the benefits are only going to be obvious long after they've left office.
I'm not sure we even need a completely tax-free account. An account where you could deposit €x annually that was only taxed at some meaningfully low, preferential, rate on sale of assets would be sufficient. Removing the deemed disposal rules alone will not result in any meaningful reallocation of the €170 billion as I suspect many holders of this wealth don't even know the deemed disposal rule exists.
Anecdotally, I know that I'd invest heavily in ETF's if deemed disposal were simply removed - but I'm already an investor. I also know that I couldn't persuade most of my family or friends to invest in them after removal of deemed disposal - I wouldn't even try as they'd just ask 'what's deemed disposal?'. If, instead, an account became available where you could invest in European shares and dividends/gains were taxed at a low enough rate within the account, I'd definitely be recommending them.
A large portion of the money sitting in deposit accounts likely belongs to those in the latter half of their lives. A case could be made to many, for example, for building an income stream of dividends, that aren't excessively taxed, as they approach the years where they want to drawdown on, as opposed to add to, those savings.
Of course, we have no idea what the future returns will be like on the alternative assets this €170 billion could be invested in - but not having a plan that promotes equities for a proportion of it for long-term investments is stupid; and they seem to be finally realising it.