Key Post How risky is property investment?

Discussion in 'Property investment and tenants' rights' started by Brendan Burgess, Jun 13, 2002.

  1. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

    Posts:
    31,183
    Many people who borrow to invest in property underestimate the risk involved. Before you invest, you should ask yourself the following questions:

    How will I be fixed if interest rates rise from 5% to 7%?
    How will I be fixed if interest rates rise from 5% to 10%?
    How will I be fixed if there is a crash in the rental market and my rental income drops?
    How will I be fixed if I can't find a tenant and the property is vacant for 3 months?
    How will I be fixed if the Government messes about with the tax situation?
    How will I be fixed if property prices fall in the short or medium term?

    While these outcomes are unlikely, investors must be able to cope with them if they do happen.

    If you borrow heavily to invest in property, then there is a very good chance that the rental income will not cover the mortgage repayments and other costs. So it is very important that you can make up the difference from your salary or other income. You should only borrow to invest in property if your other income is fairly secure i.e. you are not in any real danger of losing your job.

    If you already have a big mortgage on your home, you would be foolish to borrow 100% of the price of an investment property. If interest rates rise, you will have great difficulty in meeting your repayments. The potential return is just not worth the risk involved.

    On the other hand, if you have paid off the mortgage on your home, borrowing 100% to invest in property is probably a good idea. If interest rates rise, your rental income may not cover your mortgage repayments, but you can make up the difference from your other income. Likewise, if you have difficulty renting your property, you won't be forced to sell.

    A short term fall in property prices is not a problem for the long term property investor. However, if you are losing money on the investment and you are forced to sell, then a fall in house prices would be a serious problem.

    SOME OTHER ISSUES TO CONSIDER BEFORE INVESTING IN PROPERTY

    If you already have a home, you have a significant exposure to the property market. Buying another property increases this exposure. Investing in shares diversifies your investments.

    If you are not borrowing to invest, you are better off investing in shares than property. The killer advantage of property is that you get a tax write-off for the mortgage interest, which you don't get if you borrow to invest in shares.
     
  2. garrettod

    garrettod Guest

    ....

    Hi Brendan,

    I'm suprised your not guiding new property investors towards fixed interest rates on their property investment mortgages.

    I think now, more than ever before, anyone thinking of a property investment needs to think about location, location, location!

    I'm not a fan of the stock market at present. Having been one of the few to make a good turn on the Eircom floatation, I've no interest in loosing it.

    While I'm not dabling in the stock market directly, there are a number of good investment funds on offer from several of the banks / building societies, all offering capital guarantees - might be worth thinking about if you don't fancy a property investment :)
     
  3. N0elC

    N0elC Guest

    Hello all,

    Some interesting points.

    Having been burnt badly on tech shares a few years back, I’d be loath to get back into the stock market at present. I’ve seen in the press over the past few days that shares across the globe may crash to a six year low (www.observer.co.uk/busine...03,00.html ), so it might be wise to stay away for the time being.

    The advantage of shares of course is their liquidity, and low transaction costs in getting in and out, certainly compared to property.

    Many people have done well on property over the past few years, and certainly the leveraging element does help as well. However, pundits in the UK are predicting a price fall in the short term, leaving investors exposed to the nightmare of negative equity. The situation in Ireland is, of course, very different, but it does highlight the fact that buying in property is not the one-way bet that some seem to think it is. If the Eurozone slides into recession, which is a possibility, then Irish property values could go southwards.

    Investing in either of the above media carries a risk in these uncertain times, and certainly would be something that I wouldn’t rush into until the global economic picture becomes clearer and more settled.

    Just my tuppence worth,

    Noel

    PS Good point on the fixed rates though Garrett. A 3 yr fix now carries a premium of under 0.5% above most SVRs. If you believe the hype that interest rates are on the way up, then this could be the right time to fix.
     
  4. MOB

    MOB Guest

    How risky is property investment

    The fact that you can more easily borrow to invest in property is the exact factor which increases the risk. People accept that borrowing is risky, but they don't intuitively accept the degree to which borrowing greatly increases your investment risk.

    To put it in simple mathematical terms:

    a) €100,000 property financed by €50k debt and €50k savings

    b) Property value declines by 10%. All of this loss comes out of your savings = 20% loss. So, 50% borrowing doubles your risk.

    c) If you had borrowed 90%, a 10% decline in value would be multiplied by 10 - i.e. wiping out your savings. So 90% borrowing multiples your risk by 10.

    The above is obvious, but still tends to be overlooked. Yes, when values rise, leverage increases the return on your investment. But when values fall, leverage bites you in the backside. Never forget, BORROWING MULTIPLIES RISK.
     
  5. Spondulicks

    Spondulicks Frequent Poster

    Posts:
    84
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2007
    Re: Key Post: How risky is property investment?

    What will it cost to eject a bad tenant?
    What else is planned for the general location?
    What happens if the neighbour from hell moves next door?
    What is the momentum in your local housing market and in your economy?
    How often do you have to refit or redecorate?

    Your first property investment is your riskiest, and you should learn some lessons from it. These will help you get better at making the next one. Also it is lot of egg in one basket at the outset and there is some additional diversification with the second one, even though it is the same asset class.

    Realistically it helps to do a little spreadsheet and be very realistic about inflows and outflows, making sure to capture assumptions about the vacant periods, maintenance, tax, legal costs etc.

    There is a terrible tendency to rely on hope alone to make the numbers stack up.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2007
  6. smiler1

    smiler1 Guest

    Re: Key Post: How risky is property investment?

    in my experience if you can get the finance,and sleep at night,go for it.nothing is without risk.i have no regrets,and am now looking at investment abroad.
     
  7. HollyCat

    HollyCat Guest

    Re: Key Post: How risky is property investment?

    "What will it cost to eject a bad tenant?" - in the worst case senario multiply your monthly rent by atleast 24. To refer a non-vacating tenant to the PRTB costs €25. Where the tenants decide to be difficult they can go through mediation and tribunal procedures - this can take 6 to 12 months. If they refuse to abide by the PRTB decision it has to go to the circuit court, which can take another 12 months or so.
    You can insure the loss of rent see www.rentassured.ie but this only covers the first 12 months although the vast majority of cases the tenants will be gone within 12 months - see www.prtb.ie
     
  8. Alexmartin

    Alexmartin Frequent Poster

    Posts:
    61
    I posted this elsewhere but here seems like a better fit.
    It just a pity he didnt continue, but I suppose he answered a hell of a lot of the questions that you could ask.
    Its got worked examples and lots of other info.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=79604340