House Market Weakening?

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thewatcher said:
What was it "a lot done,more to do" by the time these boys are finished the irish economy will be in ruins.To think i actually voted them in,i don't know who the bigger fools are.Me or them ?
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You definitely, democracy assures you of the government you deserve. However, the FF/PD policy of taking credit for everything good and blaming anyone else when things go bad (blamestorming) will continue. When a decline in the housing market tanks the economy, the ECB interest rate raises and a global slowdown (felt acutely by our open economy) will be blamed. What will be ignored is that these factors will only have exasperated a situation that was going to occur anyway. The rate of house price increases cannot outstrip the growth rate of wages forever without some form of correction.
 
ivuernis said:
Expect a favourable budget in this regards in an attempt to offset rising inflation and interest rates. The last thing FF want to is for this to blow before the next election. Cowen has cash to spend and spend it he will. More fuel for the fire!
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I would expect a band increase to around €390k for the FTB in the budget and maybe some rounding up to € values form £ values in €

Thats all though .
 
democracy assures you of the government you deserve
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That it does not - it assures the majority (possibly, but not necessarily - see gerrymandering) of the government they deserve.
 
Interesting article on iTulip.com about how a housing bubble bursts, I'll be looking out for these signs.
 
whizzbang said:
Interesting article on iTulip.com about how a housing bubble bursts, I'll be looking out for these signs.
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Talking of ituilip has anyone read the following article - very dramatic stuff - though probably without direct parallels to here:
 
In the article it states that buyers and sellers disappear from the market. In Ireland we will have plenty of new stock coming on stream. FTB's could have it good in the future if they hold their nerve for another 12-18 months
 
all the vested interest economists from banks say price rises are underpinned by growing economy etc but wages(per capita) are growing by around inflation and theres massive uncertainty ahead here and in wider global economy,consumer sentiment surveys are showing large drops here in consumer confidence and this is despite ssia hype etc.
 
Glenbhoy said:
That it does not - it assures the majority (possibly, but not necessarily - see gerrymandering) of the government they deserve.
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Apologies - I meant that in more of a collective sense ...
 
As with any market there are up's and down's, however the trend is your friend, and in this case the trend is definitely upwards and IMHO is destined to remained that way for some time. Ireland has the demographics to support the current housing stock boom and when the rest of Europe's economy gets its act together this can only be of benefit. but to say that the end is neigh by listing some random outlier examples (and possibly seasonal factors i.e. summer) is irresponsible to readers of posts on this site, causing distress and in a lot of cases financial expense.
 
Leedee said:
Ireland has the demographics to support the current housing stock boom
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Please supply demographic information that shows this. All graphs I've seen show there are way less 15 year old that 25 year olds, in 10 years who is going to buy all the starter homes?
 
Leedee said:
As with any market there are up's and down's, however the trend is your friend, and in this case the trend is definitely upwards and IMHO is destined to remained that way for some time. Ireland has the demographics to support the current housing stock boom and when the rest of Europe's economy gets its act together this can only be of benefit. but to say that the end is neigh by listing some random outlier examples (and possibly seasonal factors i.e. summer) is irresponsible to readers of posts on this site, causing distress and in a lot of cases financial expense.
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In fairness, alot of posters in this thread are only posting the anecdotal evidence of what they have believed to be inevitable for some time.

Anybody who sells/buys a home on the basis of this thread, therefore suffering financial expense, needs their head examined. Even taking a look at two or three other threads in this forum would give a much greater insight into why the regular bears here believe that the property market will eventually crash/bust/decline - their opinions and analysis have been well-voiced. See figures on current un-let rental stock of 104k units, widespread rental yields of < 2%, etc, which indicate investors holding out for capital gain. If the expectation of capital gain disappears (which is the difficult bit to anticipate), investors/speculators will flood the market with this held-back housing stock, that much is almost certain.
 
conor_mc said:
If the expectation of capital gain disappears (which is the difficult bit to anticipate), investors/speculators will flood the market with this held-back housing stock, that much is almost certain.
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I wonder will anyone buy this flood of property when it does hit the market? I think this is where some buyers will get badly burned, convinced by REA's that this is a mere short-term correction before a resumption of capital appreciation rather than the beginning of a long and nasty downturn for property prices.

@leedee I think if anything, rather than causing financial hardship for people, this site will have saved people from the "gotta get on the ladder" mantra of the hordes.

Incidentally, the sales of the new apartments at Ringsend appear to be sluggish. The price and the small size of the apartments are being blamed but does anyone think this would have been an issue last year?
 
Is suppose the real litmus test would be to find out how many developers are in the planning stages for a new apt schemes, considering the lead time it takes with planning, design etc.
 
Leedee said:
Ireland has the demographics to support the current housing stock boom and when the rest of Europe's economy gets its act together this can only be of benefit.
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Just another point, if the German economy gets into gear anytime in the next 3-5 years, where do you think the thousands of Eastern European immigrants would rather be - stuck on an island with an ever-rising cost of living or just hopping across the border into Germany for work?

Imho, it's nothing short of blind optimism to expect the current immigration trends to continue to prop up over-inflated property prices once the citizens of the accession states are granted the right to work in any EU country of their choosing.
 
conor_mc said:
If the expectation of capital gain disappears (which is the difficult bit to anticipate), investors/speculators will flood the market with this held-back housing stock, that much is almost certain.
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I'd be willing to bet that the leaders of our great lending institutions have also reasoned this one out. That's why despite all the talk on the
desirability of a soft landing they never actually act to bring it about.

Rather than slowly close the flood gates of debt, they open it more year after year. Quite Possibly they've realised a soft landing is unlikely so the machinery is geared on full to try keeps things expanding.

I think the best hope for resolution to this madness comes from abroad.

1. The ECB brings rates back to normal levels
2. International investors dump bank shares (as in behave yourselves or we're out !)

Both solutions underway...
 
conor_mc said:
Just another point, if the German economy gets into gear anytime in the next 3-5 years, where do you think the thousands of Eastern European immigrants would rather be - stuck on an island with an ever-rising cost of living or just hopping across the border into Germany for work?

Imho, it's nothing short of blind optimism to expect the current immigration trends to continue to prop up over-inflated property prices once the citizens of the accession states are granted the right to work in any EU country of their choosing.
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Plus When the euro economy gets going again interest rates will be more like uk/usa at 4.5-6% and mortage holders will be paying a lot more.
 
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