I think we are going to hit 90K this year under some figures I saw in the press a while back, can't remember when exactly. We seem to be building many of them in areas outside of Dublin where there is not the demand but still in Dublin there is still a huge amount of immigration from the new EU states which is the only thing from stopping the rental market going belly up like it is outside the Pale
House Market Weakening?
- Thread starter whathome
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Guest107
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Neffa said:
But the population increase of 100,000 is largely made up of Polish Builders who came here to build houses . Once you stop building houses they will leave to go to recently booming Germany and then you are losing a years worth of tenants as well as not building a years worth of houses.
Equilibrium That !!!!!
The market knows
On the original question, the stockmarket will be the tell. The prices of the banks, the builders and the building material companies with heavy exposure to the Irish market will have turned sharply down long before any weakness in the property market hits the news media.
On the original question, the stockmarket will be the tell. The prices of the banks, the builders and the building material companies with heavy exposure to the Irish market will have turned sharply down long before any weakness in the property market hits the news media.
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Neffa
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Re: The market knows
Except they already have to some extent. The market is discounting the shares of the Irish finance sector relative to their UK/Continental counterparts precisely for this reason. Both of our largest banks have recently come out with upbeat trading assessments which the market promptly ignored, due to the property risk.
tyoung said:
Except they already have to some extent. The market is discounting the shares of the Irish finance sector relative to their UK/Continental counterparts precisely for this reason. Both of our largest banks have recently come out with upbeat trading assessments which the market promptly ignored, due to the property risk.
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Neffa
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whathome said:
I know it is not really scientific, but a glance at the auction results page in the Times today showed an overwhelming majority of properties being withdrawn - over 70% in South Co. Dublin. Very high indeed.
Neffa said:
The trouble with people (not you Neffa, Bertie, EA etcl) saying that the fundamentals are good, there is plenty of demand out there to pevent a collapse, are ignoring that nearly half of the demand would stop over night if house prices started to fall.
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Canonball
Guest
Neffa, re your supposition that there will be an over supply at current production rates (i.e. based on production of circa 80,000 units per annum) you may be right - but you have to remember that a large proportion of the units built in the past 3 or 4 years were actually holiday homes (a lot of which are unoccupied for the best part of the year). These should be stripped out of calculations when trying to figure out where we are re supply/demand position.
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Neffa
Guest
Just back on this again. I note that only one house in South Co. Dublin sold at auction in this weeks Times results. The other 9 were withdrawn, one sold later leaving 8 unsold.
It will be interesting to monitor this trend, especially given today's hike in rates.
It will be interesting to monitor this trend, especially given today's hike in rates.
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sonar
Guest
There has been some pretty obvious "GET ME OUT!!" selling of Irish financial stocks with heavy property dependencies.
Although markets are down globally, we're often told that the Irish property market is different, special, safe etc
That particular mantra doesn't appear to be accepted by the markets.
Although markets are down globally, we're often told that the Irish property market is different, special, safe etc
That particular mantra doesn't appear to be accepted by the markets.
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walk2dewater
Guest
redo said:
Bang on. I've always said take away the EXPECTATION of future price gains and 2 things will happen. Buyers will dry up and sellers will question why they're subsidizing tenants
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Neffa
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Other factoid of note from yesterday's Times is that there are 104,000 vacant/unrented properties in the country at present 
. Doesn't really point to a huge unmet demand, imho, even though we have 80,000 units coming on stream this year.
. Doesn't really point to a huge unmet demand, imho, even though we have 80,000 units coming on stream this year.Neffa said:Other factoid of note from yesterday's Times is that there are 104,000 vacant/unrented properties in the country at present
Do you have a link to this? sounds ike a great fact to pull out during th erecurring "property can't fail" debates!
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Neffa
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In here:
[broken link removed]
Quote:
"There are currently 104,000 investment properties sitting vacant around the country, and these are not holiday homes . . . at the same time, we still have huge waiting lists of people who just want somewhere to live."
[broken link removed]
Quote:
"There are currently 104,000 investment properties sitting vacant around the country, and these are not holiday homes . . . at the same time, we still have huge waiting lists of people who just want somewhere to live."
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TallSpoon
Guest
muppet n slang 1 a buyer of property paying an amount equivalent to between 40 and 50 times its annual rental value. Usually found in Ireland. 2 a property owner asserting that "rent is dead money" when they already pay a monthly mortgage interest charge greater than the equivalent monthly rent on the property. 3 a buyer of property in overseas markets who has never visited the country or researched local property law. 4 a group of puppets and costume characters created by Jim Henson and the company he created. muppetry n
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sonar
Guest
Affordability will soon be hitting a wall.
sbpost:
Now the banks could keep things moving up by unleashing even more "creative" debt products but they probably realise this will be self-destructive as investors continue to dump their shares over sustainability and interest rate worries.
Gosh, who could have seen this coming
sbpost:
Now the banks could keep things moving up by unleashing even more "creative" debt products but they probably realise this will be self-destructive as investors continue to dump their shares over sustainability and interest rate worries.
Gosh, who could have seen this coming
sonar said:Now the banks could keep things moving up by unleashing even more "creative" debt products but they probably realise this will be self-destructive as investors continue to dump their shares over sustainability and interest rate worries.
Gosh, who could have seen this coming
Clearly the banks should buy more property! it can't lose!
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Neffa
Guest
Another (possible) indication of a weakening market - the Indo reported on Friday that the vast majority of Dublin properties auctioned on Thursday were withdrawn and one house attracted no bids at all.
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