Homeless Tsunami

[peemac]

Where is this?

Sinn Fein and the lefties virtually guaranteed that there would be a homeless Tsunami once the rent restrictions ended on April 1st.

It's now 3 Months later.

Could they explain why it hasn't happened??

 

[arbitron]

The restrictions ended in April but any effects would only be visible weeks/months later. Some of the protections for tenants only finished a couple of weeks ago, so we will see any consequent trends in coming months. The eviction dates would be staggered depending on when the notices were served and how much time the tenants were entitled to, so unlikely to be one big wave. It would be interesting to see the overholding rates from April onwards.

 

[Right Winger]

There is a lot of recirculation in the market. One tenant's "eviction" (a pedantic point perhaps, but eviction is a loaded term - almost nobody is "evicted" - most leave when served with a valid notice of termination) mostly leads on to someone else getting a new home. Perhaps as a new tenant, perhaps as a homebuyer, perhaps as a family member leaving the family home and setting up a new household. But the home doesn't generally become unoccupied; it simply becomes occupied by someone else.
Preventing movement in the market place is simply populist pandering, something the Shinners and the far left (and even the centre left) are very good at. The rest of us shouldn't adopt their narrative.

 

[arbitron]

There is a lot of recirculation in the market. ... But the home doesn't generally become unoccupied; it simply becomes occupied by someone else.

But it's not necessarily one-in, one-out. You could have 4 people sharing a 4-bed house, their lease is terminated, and later it's rented to 2 lovebirds who have just moved home from abroad. You then have a net 4 people without a place to live looking for new accommodation. It can happen the other way around as well, but we can't assume without data. Homeless figures are higher than ever and yet we are building homes, so maybe we do have a mismatch.

I imagine what some policymakers and legislators are trying to do is use laws and market forces to optimise use of accommodation. The rent a room relief for example. Arguably the NPPR and LPT. And the UK has had various versions of a "bedroom tax".

 

[Right Winger]

Yes of course, it's not necessarily one-in one-out. But the point remains that a level of turnover is normal and natural and certainly not a tsunami.
Market distortions (RPZs, termination bans, etc) will often provide perverse incentives that harm the very people they're meant to help. But that doesn't matter to the Shinners and the populist left. They just want to be seen as on the side of "ordinary people" while sticking it to "the rich" and "the landlord class" irrespective of whether it works or not. In fact, from their point of view, it's better if it doesn't work, as they are parties that feed off unhappiness and discontent.

 

[Purple]

There's a Tsunami of evictions coming. (Still waiting for that.)
We have a homelessness crisis. (13,000 people or one in every 385 people in the country)
We have a cost of living crisis. (Dublin Airport's never been busier)
We have a refugee crisis. (74,000 in total or one in ever 68 people)

The media and the opposition like to sensationalise things but framing an issue in emotive terms rarely leads to good outcomes.

 

[Firefly]

One tenant's "eviction" (a pedantic point perhaps, but eviction is a loaded term - almost nobody is "evicted" - most leave when served with a valid notice of termination)

+1

 

[cremeegg]

There's a Tsunami of evictions coming. (Still waiting for that.)

I agree that was never anything but sensationalism.

We have a cost of living crisis. (Dublin Airport's never been busier)

Many people have more money than they can reasonably spend. Young people with no kids and good jobs. Old people with good pensions, people in mid life with high earnings.

The meaningless whining in the press shouldn't disguise the important issue

We have a homelessness crisis. (13,000 people or one in every 385 people in the country)

We really do have a housing crisis. People cannot find a place to live. When people cannot provide stable housing for their kids, that is a crisis for us all.

 

[Right Winger]

....
We really do have a housing crisis. People cannot find a place to live. When people cannot provide stable housing for their kids, that is a crisis for us all.

The problem is the word "crisis" has been totally devalued by (mostly left wing and Shinner) populist politicians. Everything is a crisis according to that lot. Boyd Barrett, Paul Murphy, Mary Lou and her comrades in arms find a different crisis every day. You'd never think that we live in a pretty decent democracy, where standards of living have never been higher, disposable incomes have never been higher, the public health service has never been better and numbers going to third level have never been higher.
As for housing, a generation or so ago, the standard issue social housing was a poorly finished house in a public housing ghetto. No central heating, no built in wardrobes, one bathroom, small cheap formica topped kitchen units. And you lived in a decrepit bedsit while you waited for one. Nowadays it's an A rated house with solar PV, 2/3 bathrooms, fitted furniture and nice kitchen with top quality appliances. And a HAP subsidized private rental while you wait.
Some crisis!

 

[arbitron]

The problem is the word "crisis" has been totally devalued by (mostly left wing and Shinner) populist politicians. Everything is a crisis according to that lot. Boyd Barrett, Paul Murphy, Mary Lou and her comrades in arms find a different crisis every day. You'd never think that we live in a pretty decent democracy, where standards of living have never been higher, disposable incomes have never been higher, the public health service has never been better and numbers going to third level have never been higher.
As for housing, a generation or so ago, the standard issue social housing was a poorly finished house in a public housing ghetto. No central heating, no built in wardrobes, one bathroom, small cheap formica topped kitchen units. And you lived in a decrepit bedsit while you waited for one. Nowadays it's an A rated house with solar PV, 2/3 bathrooms, fitted furniture and nice kitchen with top quality appliances. And a HAP subsidized private rental while you wait.
Some crisis!

I hope there is some element of satire intended here. It's hard to tell.

Politicians or every hue refer to things as crises, be they left, right, or undecided.

Whether or not this is a crisis by the dictionary definition, we have a pressing problem with housing that affects all of us in some manner.

I agree that Ireland is a fantastic place in many ways and has come along in leaps and bounds, but that just makes it all the more galling that thousands of people remain unable to find or afford homes, including thousands of children.

It is a poor reflection of our social priorities, our economic maturity, our government (and opposition), and ultimately ourselves as citizens.

 

[Purple]

I hope there is some element of satire intended here. It's hard to tell.

I hope not.

Politicians or every hue refer to things as crises, be they left, right, or undecided.

Once someone catastrophises something it's hard to call it out without having the Twittering masses become outraged. We live in a post-fact society where problems are crisis and truth is relative,

Whether or not this is a crisis by the dictionary definition, we have a pressing problem with housing that affects all of us in some manner.

It's a pressing matter but nearly every country in the developed world is facing the same problem. It's a symptom of nearly two decades of money printing and the imbalance between labour and capital that has caused. As a country, and considering how bad our crash was, how much our population is increasing and how labour flows are restricted because we are an island we are actually doing really well on this issue. In comparison to our peers our government is doing a good job.

Oh, and it's not a problem that affects most of us. In fact it only affects a small proportion of us.

I agree that Ireland is a fantastic place in many ways and has come along in leaps and bounds, but that just makes it all the more galling that thousands of people remain unable to find or afford homes, including thousands of children.

Previously we exported around 40,000 people a year. That means that we had no housing shortages.

It is a poor reflection of our social priorities, our economic maturity, our government (and opposition), and ultimately ourselves as citizens.

So what's the solution? I see a very strong economic and social case for a significant increase in residential property tax but that won't wash. We like whinging about problems but we don't like accepting our individual culpability and shouldering our proportion of the burden of the solution.
Oh, and I don't think it's a poor reflection of any of that. I don't think housing is a right. I think our welfare system is too generous and not targeted enough. Too much goes to people who don't need it. There's more than enough social housing, more than enough housing generally. We just have too many under used homes.

 

[Purple]

I agree that was never anything but sensationalism.

Many people have more money than they can reasonably spend. Young people with no kids and good jobs. Old people with good pensions, people in mid life with high earnings.

The meaningless whining in the press shouldn't disguise the important issue

Agreed.

We really do have a housing crisis. People cannot find a place to live. When people cannot provide stable housing for their kids, that is a crisis for us all.

No, we have a housing shortage and very high rents. That's caused by all the QE related things like an economy at 98.5% capacity and labour shortages. Then tere's net immigration, inefficient planning structures, an under resourced Civil Service and all that stuff.

... but 13,000 people out of a population of over 5 million is not a crisis and a fair proportion of that 13'000 are just gaming the system to get social housing. People who used to live with their parents are now homeless, in fact people who still live with their parents are officially homeless.

Oh, and if you don't have anywhere to live then don't have kids. If you already have them and then become homeless that's different.

 

[Right Winger]

I hope there is some element of satire intended here. It's hard to tell.

I'm failing to make myself clear then! For.the record, it's reality. Admittedly, reality now seems like satire, but that's the times we live in, and the unrealistic expectations we have inculcated in sections of society.

Politicians or every hue refer to things as crises, be they left, right, or undecided.

To a point, but it's a real speciality of the left, the pseudo-left, the extreme left, the eco-left and the left behind.

Whether or not this is a crisis by the dictionary definition, we have a pressing problem with housing that affects all of us in some manner.

Yes, and a problem is not a crisis. Labelling it as such does not aid in finding the best solution.

I agree that Ireland is a fantastic place in many ways and has come along in leaps and bounds, but that just makes it all the more galling that thousands of people remain unable to find or afford homes, including thousands of children.

The vast vast majority of those thousands have homes, just not exactly the ones they want. And as @Purple points out (and no politician ever will) many are gaming the system.

It is a poor reflection of our social priorities, our economic maturity, our government (and opposition), and ultimately ourselves as citizens.

Only in the sense that we have allowed unrealistic expectations to take hold. Expectations that can only be fulfilled by unreasonable burdens placed on the hardworking, taxpaying citizenry.

 

[Purple]

I'm failing to make myself clear then! For.the record, it's reality. Admittedly, reality now seems like satire, but that's the times we live in, and the unrealistic expectations we have inculcated in sections of society.


To a point, but it's a real speciality of the left, the pseudo-left, the extreme left, the eco-left and the left behind.


Yes, and a problem is not a crisis. Labelling it as such does not aid in finding the best solution.


The vast vast majority of those thousands have homes, just not exactly the ones they want. And as @Purple points out (and no politician ever will) many are gaming the system.

+1 to all of that.

Only in the sense that we have allowed unrealistic expectations to take hold. Expectations that can only be fulfilled by unreasonable burdens placed on the hardworking, taxpaying citizenry.

Here's when I think the problem is broader. Most people are net recipients from the State. It costs about €8000 a year to educate a child. Then there's free GP care and subsidised childcare and when you're old there's State Pensions that most people never come close to paying for, free healthcare, reduced taxes and all sorts of other handouts. Most people get far more back than they put in and that's okay, the State takes taxes from businesses and other sources and spends the money on the people but the notion of a Middle that pays for everything and gets nothing back i couldn't be further from the truth... and don't get me started on how selfish and entitled old people are. The unreasonable burden their expectations, born of groundless entitlement, place the biggest burden of any cohort.

And we all pay taxes, some of us don't pay income tax but we all pay VAT and duties etc.

 

[Right Winger]

+1 to all of that.

Here's when I think the problem is broader. Most people are net recipients from the State.

Most? Children, granted, perhaps, but even then their parents may well be net contributors.

It costs about €8000 a year to educate a child. Then there's free GP care...

Not for most working adults.

and subsidised childcare

Again, for children, obviously!

and when you're old there's State Pensions that most people never come close to paying for...

I doubt that. A lifetime of PRSI plus employer's PRSI alone (total 14.75%) should handsomely pay for the OAP. That's without considering other direct taxes.

free healthcare, reduced taxes and all sorts of other handouts.

After a lifetime of working and contributing, fair enough.

Most people get far more back than they put in and that's okay, the State takes taxes from businesses and other sources and spends the money on the people but the notion of a Middle that pays for everything and gets nothing back i couldn't be further from the truth...

There is a middle and upper income that pays for most stuff and gets little back.

and don't get me started on how selfish and entitled old people are.

Again, a lifetime of work, plus many are contributing one way or.another to their children and grandchildren.

The unreasonable burden their expectations, born of groundless entitlement, place the biggest burden of any cohort.

If it's groundless entitlement, I wouldn't be looking at people with 45 years work behind them.

And we all pay taxes, some of us don't pay income tax but we all pay VAT and duties etc.

Some of us pay VAT and duties in addition to the direct income taxes, PRSI, USC etc etc.

Others pay VAT and duties out of the money handed over to them by the State in the first place. Plus they are the ones that get just about everything free. These are net recipients, and then some.

That's one hell of a difference!

 

[arbitron]

It's a pressing matter but nearly every country in the developed world is facing the same problem. It's a symptom of nearly two decades of money printing and the imbalance between labour and capital that has caused. As a country, and considering how bad our crash was, how much our population is increasing and how labour flows are restricted because we are an island we are actually doing really well on this issue. In comparison to our peers our government is doing a good job.

"Everyone else is handling this poorly" is not an excuse. That sort of thinking lets governments off the hook, discourages innovation, and delays progress. If everyone else in class was getting a D, would you not still aim for an A?

Oh, and it's not a problem that affects most of us. In fact it only affects a small proportion of us.

It might directly affect 13,000 people but the indirect effects are very significant. Lack of housing, lack of mobility/choice in the market, increase in rents, increase in house prices - all of these are connected and cause ripples across the economy.

For homeowners, the chronic undersupply means house values are increasing. Unearned wealth which is precarious, unpredictable, and gives a false sense of security. Houses in our area have increased by 80% in 5 years. Therefore our property tax will also. So a lot of people affected by this.

In the past 2 months we have had 4 new hires pull out of jobs because they could not find suitable rental accommodation. Not that it was too expensive - they could not find a place. These people were all on €80k-€100k. We now have to poach from other employers in Dublin - that will affect a lot of people. And we will have to hire more junior employees for these roles - that will affect a lot of services and a lot of people.

And so on. So there are lots of ways this gridlock and undersupply affects individuals, communities, and the wider economy.

So what's the solution? I see a very strong economic and social case for a significant increase in residential property tax but that won't wash. We like whinging about problems but we don't like accepting our individual culpability and shouldering our proportion of the burden of the solution.

Agree - property tax should have been introduced a long time ago and it should be much higher than it is now.

And why are parents allowed to give children €300k+ tax free? It is a loss of revenue for the state and it perpetuates wealth inequality. I get that the parents have paid tax on the original earnings, fine, spend it on yourself then, but what has that go to do with their children being given a windfall? If I give €300k to my niece she has to pay tax on it, and rightly so.

Oh, and I don't think it's a poor reflection of any of that. I don't think housing is a right.

Housing is considered a universal human right by many of us, is included in some national constitutions, and part of international treaties which Ireland has signed/ratified.

... but 13,000 people out of a population of over 5 million is not a crisis and a fair proportion of that 13'000 are just gaming the system to get social housing.

The vast vast majority of those thousands have homes, just not exactly the ones they want. And as @Purple points out (and no politician ever will) many are gaming the system.

@Purple and @Right Winger what do you both mean by gaming the system? And what are the actual figures? I hear people say this but have never seen any data produced.

Only in the sense that we have allowed unrealistic expectations to take hold. Expectations that can only be fulfilled by unreasonable burdens placed on the hardworking, taxpaying citizenry.

I don't see how an expectation that all children should be housed safely and securely is unreasonable. As a "hardworking, taxpaying citizen" (you forgot "who gets up early in the morning"), I would be happy to pay more tax for that purpose.

 

[Right Winger]

@Purple and @Right Winger what do you both mean by gaming the system?

The basic way is to make yourself appear homeless so you get up the priority list for social housing. Local authorities generally won't accept you as homeless if you voluntarily leave your current accommodation, so a certain level of deception must be employed. Among the ways people do this are:

1. Persuade their landlord to issue a notice of termination. They then go to Threshold to "validate" it. (Yes, this is a service Threshold offer!) Then the local authority bumps them up the emergency housing list for the nice A rated house with all mod cons that the taxpayers who paid for it couldn't afford themselves.



2. Get themselves "thrown out" of the parental home. Self-explanatory. Same result as 1.



3. Feign a domestic violence driven separation. The family now need two homes. When they get the nice one they want, they happily reconcile and have comfortable housing for a pittance.

And what are the actual figures?

Ah, come on now! Live in the real world for a minute. What local authority is going to produce figures for how its generosity gets abused?

I hear people say this but have never seen any data produced.

This is a classic argument trotted out by people who (probably for ideological reasons) are determined not to see abuses in areas such as social welfare, public housing and so on. (In fairness, a similar argument is often made on the other end of the ideological spectrum for tax evasion and suchlike.)
But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

[arbitron]

Ah, come on now! Live in the real world for a minute. What local authority is going to produce figures for how its generosity gets abused?

Why does it have to be from the local authority? How about The Indo, Business Post, Irish Times, Limerick Leader, Prime Time, Gript, The Ditch, etc. etc.? Whistleblowers, FOIs, leaked documents, etc.?

This is a classic argument trotted out by people who (probably for ideological reasons) are determined not to see abuses in areas such as social welfare, public housing and so on. (In fairness, a similar argument is often made on the other end of the ideological spectrum for tax evasion and suchlike.)
But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

If you're making claims then the onus is on you to offer some sources. You can't expect people to just accept something because it's your opinion.

 

[arbitron]

The basic way is to make yourself appear homeless so you get up the priority list for social housing. Local authorities generally won't accept you as homeless if you voluntarily leave your current accommodation, so a certain level of deception must be employed. Among the ways people do this are:

1. Persuade their landlord to issue a notice of termination. They then go to Threshold to "validate" it. (Yes, this is a service Threshold offer!) Then the local authority bumps them up the emergency housing list for the nice A rated house with all mod cons that the taxpayers who paid for it couldn't afford themselves.

Where are you getting this from? I know several people who have been on housing lists in Dublin and elsewhere, none of them ended up in "A-rated houses with all mod cons". They were very basic properties where I would not have been comfortable living myself and I'm not exactly fussy. One of them had her door kicked in in the middle of the night. Another the landlord controlled the heating remotely and wouldn't let her turn it on when her baby was cold but she was afraid she would be evicted if she complained. I just have never seen or heard of anyone living the high life described above - surely if it's so common there should be plenty of data on it and examples in the public domain...?

3. Feign a domestic violence driven separation. The family now need two homes. When they get the nice one they want, they happily reconcile and have comfortable housing for a pittance.

You are telling us that there are significant numbers of couples making false claims of domestic violence in order to manipulate a housing list? And it must be hundreds of cases if you are including it as one of your 3 highlighted schemes? This is one of the most bizarre things I have read on AAM in a long time.

 

[Purple]

Most? Children, granted, perhaps, but even then their parents may well be net contributors.

Parents pay for their children. It's a transfer to the family.

Not for most working adults.

If the adult has children then yes, it is.

Again, for children, obviously!

It's a cost that would have otherwise be born by the parents so it's something they get for their taxes.

I doubt that. A lifetime of PRSI plus employer's PRSI alone (total 14.75%) should handsomely pay for the OAP.

Most of that is paid by the employer and PRSI covers way more than pensions.

That's without considering other direct taxes.

That's not for pensions.

After a lifetime of working and contributing, fair enough.

Or after a lifetime of scrounging and under performing. Lazy people retire too, as do tax dodgers and welfare cheats.

There is a middle and upper income that pays for most stuff and gets little back.

As a cohort only the top 20% of earners are net contributors. The vast majority of that is contributed by the top 10%. By international standards the rich in tis country are overtaxed and middle income earners are undertaxed.

Again, a lifetime of work,

How do you know that? The high watermark of doing bugger all in the Public Sector was in the 70's and 80's. Those people are all pensioners now.

plus many are contributing one way or.another to their children and grandchildren.

Sure, with unearned windfall wealth as a result of a property boom caused by the same money that bailed them out after the crash.

If it's groundless entitlement, I wouldn't be looking at people with 45 years work behind them.

I would. I'd look at everyone.

Some of us pay VAT and duties in addition to the direct income taxes, PRSI, USC etc etc.

Yep, I pay lots of tax, am definitely a net contributor, have worked for over 30 years etc etc but I'm no more a tax payer than anyone else.

Others pay VAT and duties out of the money handed over to them by the State in the first place. Plus they are the ones that get just about everything free. These are net recipients, and then some.

Yes, but middle income families are still big net recipients.

That's one hell of a difference!

I agree, but families on middle incomes aren't paying for them as they are already getting back more than they put in.