High mortgage rates and the AIB flotation

Brendan Burgess

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Cliff Taylor had a good article on this issue at the weekend

Cliff Taylor: Its lose-lose for bank customers as AIB starts to exit State ownership

...the fattening up of bank profits to allow the State’s shareholdings to be sold off has meant Irish bank customers have been getting a raw deal.

...

But is the Irish public paying too much to keep the banks in the money? The numbers say that we are. The latest [broken link removed] figures show the average interest rate on new mortgages in [broken link removed] is now 3.44 per cent, compared to a euro zone average of 1.88 per cent.

...

Savers are also hit. Deposit rates are on the floor all over Europe,but the average interest rate on a deposit account here at 0.1 per cent is below the euro area average of 0.42 per cent. We are getting caught both ways.

...

All this has helped the two big banks to return to handsome profits, with AIB’s intention-to-float document clearly outlining its healthy margins. With limited signs of additional competition entering the Irish market and the banks’ investors looks for a return, do not expect this to change.
 
I actually think it's a pretty lazy article.

It references default rates but ignores the fact that around 14% of Irish mortgages are non-performing, versus an Eurozone average of around 5%.

Also, lenders provision for future defaults by reference to historic default rates so our high default rates will have an impact for a much longer period than the article implies.

Having said that, the spread between Irish floating rates for new loans and the Eurozone average figure appears to have grown somewhat in recent months, which is a worrying trend. It shows that we desperately need new entrants to the mortgage market.
 
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