pernickety
Registered User
- Messages
- 175
Well, with the global financial system extremely unstable right now
What precisely does this mean? When it comes to equities an efficient market should indeed mean that shares are at the correct value at that point in time but circumstances change and so do share values. Other markets may be less efficient but the same principle applies. It's facile to assume that all markets/assets have reached some sort of stasis requiring some sort of investment paradigm shift if that's what you are implying. By the way your affection for cash is a bit at odds with your affection for other relatively volatile assets!My theory (currently half baked) is that all assets are fully valued and then some
get out of property in ireland, dubai, spain, portugal, eastern europe. germany and italy half decent. scandavian countries not too bad, no cap apprec but decent yield and good rental system.
fixed income is undervalued....good value there as equities will bottom out, esp any linked to usd.
government bonds,
also looking to go short on the dollar....
oil is good, esp as its priced in dollar, when dollar falls nominal price will go up on this. should be an fx opportunity here as don't see dollar dropping by same amt to the euro.
gold over priced and not great returns at moment...
environmental stocks and alternative energy stocks good for a punt.
short american car manufacturers could be worth a punt.
get out of property in ireland, dubai, spain, portugal, eastern europe. germany and italy half decent. scandavian countries not too bad, no cap apprec but decent yield and good rental system.
fixed income is undervalued....good value there as equities will bottom out, esp any linked to usd.
government bonds,
also looking to go short on the dollar....
oil is good, esp as its priced in dollar, when dollar falls nominal price will go up on this. should be an fx opportunity here as don't see dollar dropping by same amt to the euro.
gold over priced and not great returns at moment...
environmental stocks and alternative energy stocks good for a punt.
short american car manufacturers could be worth a punt.
BT you make good points, but shorting anything is hard work, and it’s 99% timing.
I've been investing successfully for years. Like, 20 years. I have no need for financial advisors or the (insidious) financial industry, except for tax and legal advice. .
personally:
305: i think gold is overpriced, in what context you may ask, it's a hard one to call, it yo-yo's alot and is a tricky play. but it derives no earnings from your capital, it just sits there being itself....it has it's plus points but i'm not currently sure if these outweigh my other concerns on it.
Gold is a currency even if currently it is being viewed as a commodity. Why tie yourself up in knots trying to short the dollar in the long term when you can buy and hold gold for the same play?
not sure if i'm following/seeign what your saying?
fixed income is undervalued....
My portfolio for the coming months and years is 50% cash, 20% gold, 20% soft commodities and 10% silver.
I've decided that the best thing I can do is to NOT lose money. Or more precisely, not lose more than the average, that way I (rather perversely) stay ahead.
Generally speaking, I like gold (physical and shares), I like dividend paying Canadian oils sands income trusts, I like healthcare/pharma shares, but above all I like C-A-S-H. That's cold hard moula on deposit in C$, €, CHF.
My theory (currently half baked) is that all assets are fully valued and then some; property, bonds, shares, antiques, you name it. The ocean of liquidity pumped out by western central banks post 9/11 has settled into all corners and "value" as we've historically identified it is now merely relative rather than absolute. As this pool of 'money' is drained we're going to see bubbles pop (deflation) and new ones expand (inflation), with the overall effect being a general dis-inflation. E.g. US housing market pops and suddenly my healthcare/pharma shares, unloved for years, are this months market darlings. Who knew?
I have a feeling that hard work, thrift and saving, the activities that generated the Western worlds wealth in the first place, will once again become the preferred "way to get ahead".
Do you see no place for shares? not questioning your methods but I'm not so knowledgible on these things (as my 1st question may suggest) and I'm always hearing how the stock market outperforms every other asset class over time. I'm sure you've heard this too, is it that you think shares are overvalued right now??
Long term, shares will always win (if you re-invest dividend) because a good company will deliver for shareholders irrespective of the economic climate. At the moment though, stocks seem to be inflated with too much liquidity sloshing around the globe and looking for somewhere to rest, pushing up prices. Previously it was housing and commodities, now it seems to be large cap stocks. I'm only guessing but most of this money seems to be invested with the expectation of further capital appreciation rather than any long term faith in the companies in which the money is being invested.
A mix of commodities and cash is essentially me trying to hedge my bets on the economic outlook - deflation or stagflation. I lean towards stagflation (rising inflation with low economic growth) simply because real interest rates have been negative for an incredibly long time and economic growth in the US is slowing as American consumers find themselves unable to take on any more debt. Coupled with little prospect of wages rising in real terms over the next few years, they will be forced to cut back on spending dramatically to service that debt.
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