George Lee's Boom-Discuss here

i have bought this year and watched it with my sister (final year student) who hasn't a prayer in getting onto the property ladder except the affordable way. Anyhow i don't know who was more depressed after it - me because my house price might flop or her because she might be graduating into a crashing economy.
 
I liked it. It was just a television program , done by a television presenter and not a lecture in micro/macro econimics and thats how i took it. Sure the conclusions are almost certainly wrong as nobody can really predict whats likely to happen next. It did make many valid points regarding our economy that a lay person like myself could understand and therefore I think it was worthwhile. It did present undisputed facts re our economy and its dependence on the construction industry, and the dependency of the government and the dept of finance on its continued growth. If it serves to warn some people of the possible downside of this growth and prosperity model I think it will serve its purpose.
 
Askar,

Respect to your greater finer understanding of microeconomics than most. But I would think one does not need such a deep knowledge of economics to see the outline picture. Parking Keynesian theories etc aside there are such glaring facts standing out which I think Lee was only pointing at. As far as the role property is playing in the economy, a simple understanding of maths might just as easily help one arrive at just how unlikely it is for the prevailing fundamental imbalances to be sustained.
 
redo said:
I watched it last night. If we think the FTB are feeling under pressure to buy, imagine what the developers feel, when trying to sell their "Select", "Luxury", "Spacious" way of life. The FTB should not buy anymore. The developers are quaking in their boots.
Click to expand...

I really doubt this. Until people actually see falls in price with their own eyes, the mania will continue.
 
Neffa said:
I really doubt this. Until people actually see falls in price with their own eyes, the mania will continue.
Click to expand...

Agreed, witness other threads on this site - people desperate to get on the ladder and willing to do anything for it. The feeling of doom and gloom that pervades certain threads here is not reflected among the wider community.

People have been saying that all this is unsustainable for years but the general public just doesn't believe it any more. People watch programs like lst night, nod their heads sagely as if they understand it and then go back out to the EA to buy their next investment property.

It will take something major to change this psychology and until then, no-one is quaking in their boots
 
Askar said:
Duplex,

Dont agree. It is a spoofers game. The principles of macroeconomics and the variables underlying the theories are not clearly understood. For eg expansionary fiscal contraction (one of the recognised pillars of the celtic tiger) did not fit into a standard Keynes theory of how to expand the economy. Change the variables and the outcomes can change. IMHO without empirical research and a clear understanding of the assumptions underlying that research, you cannot state conclusions/hypothesis in a meaningful way. Taking a load of variables (as Lee did) and making subjective broad conclusions (albeit consensus conclusions of our folksy economists), is not proof of anything, nor is it necessarily empowering the masses. In fact, it is doing just what you are accusing me of doing - potentially perpetuating a fallacy. IMHO we only have fairly superficial understandings of economics (a bit like doctors in the middle ages). Since my MSc in economics is in microeconomics I am possibly a bit biased, but I prefer my economics based on game theory and tested in real world conditions. I really have no time for DIY man and all the other conveniant classifications used to lecture 'the masses' on a particular economic point of view.
Click to expand...

Then how would you interpret the 'load of variables' such as falling competitiveness, rising indebtedness, a miniscule domestic export sector, rising interest rates and commodity prices. Employ some gaming theory to these factors. It is facile in the extreme to suggest that the blindingly obvious is invisible to those not academically 'qualified' to interpret with their own eyes. Robert Shiller the professor of Economics at Yale has made similar observations with regard to the American economy, to those George Lee uttered yesterday evening. Many commentators agree that we have reached a tipping point in the current cycle, I tend to agree. (I'd be happy to pm you with my qualifications if you are curious.)

I would also be grateful if someone, anyone: could offer an alternative interpretation of the facts presented last night.
 
conor_mc said:
Touche! :D
Click to expand...
my word exactly Conor but its touché . :D . PM me when you are ready dude and we'll chill in the sun with a latté each for the next 2 hours and feck this shower .

Why did George not do this program in 2002 when the current boom took off ?
 
cant see how anyone can argue with
-house prices being so far ahead of incomes
-interest rates rising and unlikely to be this low again for many years/decades
-our exports being nearly toatally from multinationals who will move on,exports are relatively stagnant and imports of everything rockets
-construction plays a massive and dangerous role in economy
-debt levels are huge and growing bigger by the day while cost of servicing it grows
-the countries competitiveness is well down the list and getting worse
-new jobs are mainly coming from unproductive areas
-we are higly open/globalised economy meaning we are at mercy of global capital flows and competition from abroad,any international shock will hit us more than most

Basically you cant sustainably grow an economy purely on consumer spending on imported cars etc and on houses.
Add in the lack of any monetary controls /own currency which could change to address imbalances in our economy and i think we're fecked
 
There's no 'é' in latte, 2Pack... ;)

So — any of you latte-drinking people going to [broken link removed] over your lunchbreaks?
 
Just how easy would it be for the likes of Intel, Microsoft etc. to up sticks and move to a cheaper economy ?
Have they not made a huge investment in Ireland, especially Intel.
 
I don't think the reason many are here is primarily to do with cheaper wages - it is much more the 12.5% corporate tax rate. Remember Google managed to lower their effective global tax rate by 3% (down from something like 34 to 31) just by opening their EMEA centre in Dublin and pushing the European financial flows through it. Microsoft save a similar sum.
 
Any of the newer EU member states would offer the same tax advantages, and places like Estonia could easily soon match us (or better) in terms of IT infrastructure, highly-educated workforce, etc...
 
kane3000 said:
Just how easy would it be for the likes of Intel, Microsoft etc. to up sticks and move to a cheaper economy ?
Have they not made a huge investment in Ireland, especially Intel.
Click to expand...
Haven't you heard? Intel are reviewing their operations Worldwide. It has been mentioned that Intel are considering selling their chip plant as a going concern.

The FTB are the oxygen to this property bonaza. STB can trade up due to the rise in property prices (equity) that FTB create. If banks stopped lendning to FTB the whole house of cards would collapse. I'm sure people are sic (sic) of hearing it, that it is like all the cork-eens with their Liberty Investment Scheme.
 
what could we expect in an economy where pyramid schemes still flourish despite numerous warnings.

ya can watch the whole programme online at address below,forward the link to your mates and family to have them prepared
[broken link removed]
 
would i be right is saying microchip production isnt highly labour intensive and raw material costs arent set in ireland?
 
i second that - i work for a nultinational and half the employees are in the Finance department, every penny seems to be shuffled through Ireland. Its keeping a certain amount of qualified high earning jobs here alone. The IDA should keep the low tax rate but on a basis that a certain precentage of the business is R&D, Manufacturing, sales etc.
 
bearishbull said:
would i be right is saying microchip production isnt highly labour intensive and raw material costs arent set in ireland?
Click to expand...


Yes - requirement is space, stable power and earthquake-free. "Silicon" Valley has little or no chip fabrication due to the geological nature of that area.
 
bearishbull said:
would i be right is saying microchip production isnt highly labour intensive and raw material costs arent set in ireland?
Click to expand...
It requires a huge ammount of engineering back-up but unit costs are not very labour sensative. Having said that IBM have closed most of their chip manufacturing, Xilinx are very quite and NEC are gone...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top