European Parliament Elections
- Thread starter cremeegg
- Start date
What will happen. Here is how I see it.
SF are leading in the polls, that should get them a seat in each constituency. They have two candidates in each, all solid candidates with previous elected posittions and some accomplishments. Funchion, Boylan, Gildernew to be elected, in that order of confidence.
FG. Polling well and should get a seat in each constituency also. Regina Doherty in Dublin, I don't like her but a serious politician and should do well. Sean Kelly a shoo-in in South. Two bimbos in Midlands-North-West I hope neither is elected. Kelly, Doherty and maybe Carberry.
FF. Polling behind SF and FG but running the smartest campaign.
1 candidate in Dublin. Barry Andrews is high profile with a nice guy image should be elected in Dublin.
3 candidates in Midlands-North-West. Great geographical spread, all well known names, all serious about their politics. I suspect it will be Cowan, Chambers, Blaney in that order with Cowan to take a seat.
2 Candidates in South. A good geographical spread also, Cork and Carlow/Kilkenny. Kelliher was 20 years a TD, Ní Mhurchú seems to have a little more to contribute than the FG celebrity candidates. Kelliher likely to be elected.
That's 9 of the 14 seats if we count Carberry.
SF are leading in the polls, that should get them a seat in each constituency. They have two candidates in each, all solid candidates with previous elected posittions and some accomplishments. Funchion, Boylan, Gildernew to be elected, in that order of confidence.
FG. Polling well and should get a seat in each constituency also. Regina Doherty in Dublin, I don't like her but a serious politician and should do well. Sean Kelly a shoo-in in South. Two bimbos in Midlands-North-West I hope neither is elected. Kelly, Doherty and maybe Carberry.
FF. Polling behind SF and FG but running the smartest campaign.
1 candidate in Dublin. Barry Andrews is high profile with a nice guy image should be elected in Dublin.
3 candidates in Midlands-North-West. Great geographical spread, all well known names, all serious about their politics. I suspect it will be Cowan, Chambers, Blaney in that order with Cowan to take a seat.
2 Candidates in South. A good geographical spread also, Cork and Carlow/Kilkenny. Kelliher was 20 years a TD, Ní Mhurchú seems to have a little more to contribute than the FG celebrity candidates. Kelliher likely to be elected.
That's 9 of the 14 seats if we count Carberry.
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By Constituency.
Dublin. 4 seats
3 of the 4 are easy to predict here. Andrews, Boylan, Doherty. The 4th seat between Ciarán Cuffe, Claire Daly, Aodhán Ó Riordáin and Bríd Smith. Sinéad Gibney of the Soc Dems likely to be the first meaningful elimination. That will favour Ó Riordáin. Smith or Daly out next, again that should favour a socialist out of govt rather than a Green in govt. To my surprise I am tipping Ó Riordáin for the last seat.
Dublin. 4 seats
3 of the 4 are easy to predict here. Andrews, Boylan, Doherty. The 4th seat between Ciarán Cuffe, Claire Daly, Aodhán Ó Riordáin and Bríd Smith. Sinéad Gibney of the Soc Dems likely to be the first meaningful elimination. That will favour Ó Riordáin. Smith or Daly out next, again that should favour a socialist out of govt rather than a Green in govt. To my surprise I am tipping Ó Riordáin for the last seat.
Midlands-North-West. 5 seats
Ming is the only easy tip here. An FFer for sure, but which one, probably Cowan. Gildernew for SF. I will put aside my dislike for the FG candidates and say one of them is likely to be elected. Carberry has the appeal of the new and her celebrity is more recent.
That leaves 2 seats. Unlikely as it seems FF will probably take one of them, Chambers rather than Blaney.
For the final seat it is not so much a question of who will win as who will not loose. Ciarán Mullooly or the 2nd FG candidate. The Green and labour candidates are unlikely to last the pace. Not much unites the lower order candidates except they all oppose the govt. That might favour Mullooly.
Flanagan, Gildernew, Cowan, Carberry, Mullooly.
I have edited this as from the above it is not clear whether I favour Chambers or Mullooly for the last seat. And I am not sure. Mullooly! definitely maybe?
Ming is the only easy tip here. An FFer for sure, but which one, probably Cowan. Gildernew for SF. I will put aside my dislike for the FG candidates and say one of them is likely to be elected. Carberry has the appeal of the new and her celebrity is more recent.
That leaves 2 seats. Unlikely as it seems FF will probably take one of them, Chambers rather than Blaney.
For the final seat it is not so much a question of who will win as who will not loose. Ciarán Mullooly or the 2nd FG candidate. The Green and labour candidates are unlikely to last the pace. Not much unites the lower order candidates except they all oppose the govt. That might favour Mullooly.
Flanagan, Gildernew, Cowan, Carberry, Mullooly.
I have edited this as from the above it is not clear whether I favour Chambers or Mullooly for the last seat. And I am not sure. Mullooly! definitely maybe?
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South. 5 seats
Seán Kelly, Cathleen Function, Billy Kelliher, easy.
FG may have enough votes for 2 seats but their vote management is looking poor. The large number of candidates means that Kelly's surplus will not bring in John Mullins.
After that it's a question of last 2 men or women standing. I think Ní Mhurchú and McNamara.
Seán Kelly, Cathleen Function, Billy Kelliher, easy.
FG may have enough votes for 2 seats but their vote management is looking poor. The large number of candidates means that Kelly's surplus will not bring in John Mullins.
After that it's a question of last 2 men or women standing. I think Ní Mhurchú and McNamara.
No point in speculating if you aren't going to stick your neck out.
Dublin. Andrews, Boylan, Doherty, Ó Riordáin,
Midlands-North-West. Flanagan, Gildernew, Cowan, Carberry, Mullooly
South. Kelly, Kelliher, Funchion, Ní Mhurchú and McNamara
FF. 4 ( I will be claiming this as correct if its 4 with Chambers and without Ní Mhurchú)
FG. 3
SF. 3
Other. 4 Flanagan, Ó Riordáin, McNamara, Mullolly
Dublin. Andrews, Boylan, Doherty, Ó Riordáin,
Midlands-North-West. Flanagan, Gildernew, Cowan, Carberry, Mullooly
South. Kelly, Kelliher, Funchion, Ní Mhurchú and McNamara
FF. 4 ( I will be claiming this as correct if its 4 with Chambers and without Ní Mhurchú)
FG. 3
SF. 3
Other. 4 Flanagan, Ó Riordáin, McNamara, Mullolly
Ceist Beag
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Nice work cremeegg. My biggest hope in these elections is that the four new parties claiming to somehow represent Ireland or Irish get absolutely destroyed. Right wing racist bigots wrapping themselves in the Irish flag, not in my name.
I feel the same way about the far left. History has shown that imposing dramatic economic and social changes, be they extreme left of extreme right, results in oppression, deprivation and mass murder. The last century showed us that; with the Left killing way more people than the right, so staying somewhere in the centre is by far the best option. I see as much of a threat from the People before Profit extremists and the Wallace and Daly types as I do from the right wing Ethno-Nationalists. They are probably worse than the former child killers running the populist pseudo-left wing main opposition party.
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Four new parties? Can you clarify?
(1) I have heard of the National Party (who seem to be bonkers). I don't know much about them, except that they had some sort of internal split. They don't seem to be getting any traction / coverage, and I presume they will achieve zero cllrs elected?
(2) All I know about the Irish Freedom Party is the leader Herman Kelly. Are they bigger or smaller than the National Party? They don't seem to be getting any traction / coverage, and I presume they will achieve zero cllrs elected?
Who are the other two?
I see Independent Ireland, not a great name in my opinion. They have actual Cllrs, who I guess have left FF or FG? Is Niall Boylan with this party? There's no sign of him on the website. What about Ciaran Mullolly?
It's hard to keep track.......
(1) I have heard of the National Party (who seem to be bonkers). I don't know much about them, except that they had some sort of internal split. They don't seem to be getting any traction / coverage, and I presume they will achieve zero cllrs elected?
(2) All I know about the Irish Freedom Party is the leader Herman Kelly. Are they bigger or smaller than the National Party? They don't seem to be getting any traction / coverage, and I presume they will achieve zero cllrs elected?
Who are the other two?
I see Independent Ireland, not a great name in my opinion. They have actual Cllrs, who I guess have left FF or FG? Is Niall Boylan with this party? There's no sign of him on the website. What about Ciaran Mullolly?
It's hard to keep track.......
Ceist Beag
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It is indeed hard to keep track. The Irish People (how dare they even use such a name!) and Ireland First are two others. I've no idea if Independent Ireland is a party or a bunch of independents either.
I think one is the People's front of Judea and the other is the Judean People's Front. Splitters.
thedaddyman
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Ah that fine Irish tradition of "the split". Beloved of political parties, GAA clubs and committees all over the country.
Have to admit, they are making PBP seem like a voice of reason and common sense.
As for the South constituency, Funchion should get in, that generates a bye election as well. Surprised she is going for Europe to be honest. Punch is going down very well with the farming community but that may not be enough. FF seem to be really pushing Cynithia ni Mhuricu. She's a qualified barrisiter and from what I've seen of her on the TV, she is well prepped and well able to talk.
I should naturally be voting for Doherty however watched her on tv post last referendum and I didn't like what she had to say one bit. Won't be voting FG in either European or local elections (party is ignoring its membership and voters).
In local will give Aontu no 1.
In local will give Aontu no 1.
The Shinner splitters who are against killing kids before they are born but used to be okay with killing them after they were born?
thedaddyman
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I don't think so, my local one is a "parlimentary assistant",
Nicely put. I suppose you could assign that to most significant Irish political parties since the foundation of the state
I am someone who thinks we are overdue a rational discussion on the whole immigration question.
Leaving it to the nutters as, was the approach of the mainstream at least until recently is a bad idea.
I thought I would have a look at these new right-wing parties. What do they say about themselves. How well known are they. Are they getting traction in the elections.
The National Party. They have pictures of guys in Balaclavas on their website. They are overtly racist. They are anti-EU but boast of their contacts with like minded parties abroad. They have €400k worth of gold which they are fighting over, where did that come from, who is providing that kind of funding. They have two purported leaders who are both running in Midlands-North-West. In short these guys are bad news.
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