ESRI forecasts for the economy

TTV

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The Exchequer will end in the year with a deficit of approximately €622 million, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
In its latest quarterly bulletin, the independent think tank claims the deficit is due to a fall of 3 per cent in *** and an overall slowdown in the economy.

The figure will represent a swing in the public coffers from a surplus of €2.2 billion in 2006 to a deficit of €622 million this year.

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Can it really all change so much in one short year? Surely this will have a drastic impact on the NDP and future infrastructure projects in the pipeline, will this mean a return to borrowing to finance the pubic sector or will some form of cull be necessary? Does anyone believe the ESRI have over/under estimated the future of the economy, personally i think it will be even worse (sorry for the un-patriotic view Bertie :rolleyes:) and the next couple of years here are going to unleash untold financial and social problems for the country
 

MrKeane

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257
If the trend in slowly falling ***** ****** continues over a good few years as some experts are predicting just today then things like the NDP will end up getting cut back bit by bit, unemployment will rise and a viscious circle of negativity will evolve.
 
Z

z108

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Can it really all change so much in one short year?

I dont want to sound like George Lee ... but
Look how much the economy changed in one year in a positive direction during our boom. Whos to say it cant change as quickly in the backwards direction ?
 

rock3r

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What happens to the hundreds of unfinished apartment blocks if the concerns which own them go bankrupt?

What'll the creditors do with them? Will they continue the building or just walk away?
 

Purple

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13,094
We'er Doomed, DOOMED I tell ya!

Hands up those that didn't see this coming?
If you have your hand up then do a bit of reading on what happens to an economy driven by a credit boom when interest rates go up.
When you do that repeat 100 times, “We are not special, economic principles apply here just like every other country in the world.”

Then put it in perspective; it’s not the end of the world and a downturn might help us learn to grow up a bit as a nation.
 

room305

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477
Then put it in perspective; it’s not the end of the world and a downturn might help us learn to grow up a bit as a nation.

Or alternatively we can refuse to take our medicine and continue to throw taxpayer money at the problem in vain attempt to bring back the good times.

I know which option the good people of Ireland voted for.
 

Purple

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13,094
Or alternatively we can refuse to take our medicine and continue to throw taxpayer money at the problem in vain attempt to bring back the good times.

I know which option the good people of Ireland voted for.
Yea, they had a choice of option B or option B.
 

boaber

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493
it’s not the end of the world

My colleague said on Monday that she heard someone on the Gerry Ryan shown say that the world is going to end this Saturday 07/07/07 :eek:

Just hope there isn't another interest rate rise before then.

Then again, this prediction could be as accurate as previous predictions made by the ESRI :p
 
Z

z106

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Did anyon esee that UCD professors report on ***** ****** ?
A joke.
 

Sherman

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983
Can it really all change so much in one short year? Surely this will have a drastic impact on the NDP and future infrastructure projects in the pipeline, will this mean a return to borrowing to finance the pubic sector or will some form of cull be necessary? Does anyone believe the ESRI have over/under estimated the future of the economy, personally i think it will be even worse (sorry for the un-patriotic view Bertie :rolleyes:) and the next couple of years here are going to unleash untold financial and social problems for the country

It's due to a combination of weaker tax revenues, and more importantly, massive overshoots in capital expenditure. Election year, anyone? Unlike the USA, we already have a taxpayer funded electoral system - Fianna Fail spend our money, and we re-elect them.
 

ashambles

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567
Last years surplus was unexpected and was due to some one off sources. So a year to year comparison should take that into account unless of course someone wanted better headlines.

Secondly at budget time there was a deficit of around 550m predicted for the year - so it'll be off by about 70m but considering the size of government expenditure the ERSI prediction is close enough to not matter.

If the final figure hit exactly what the government predicted the suspicious amongst us would think book cooking rather than accurate forecasting.

Also unlike a public company it's not the job of a government to run the country at a profit, if there's money available it should be spent on things the private sector won't provide and if it can't be spent then the tax take is unnecessarily high.
 

derryman

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108
Did anyon esee that UCD professors report on ***** ****** ?
A joke.

actually - I read it and thought it to be a well crafted research based document that built up its argument on the experience of 20 other developing western economies over the last 30 years - what's up - could you not see the obvious and sell up your specuvestments in Spring 2006

mind you - we are different alright - that manufacturing bit really shows.
 
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