Effect of SSIAs on Secondhand Car Market

B

Bootdog

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What are peoples thoughts on the secondhand market once the SSIAs start to mature (later this year, but primarily early 2007)?

My thoughts:
a) there will be a lot of new cars purchased, people trading up from 00s to 04s, a lot of trade-in 00-04 cars available & should be good value.

b) people owning a 96/97/98/99 car are likely to use the SSIA cash to trade up, for new or 01-04 above. There will be a flood of 96-99 cars on the market. Prices likely to drop, as people generally won't be interested in buying a car of this age when they have just received a wad of SSIA cash.

c) there should be more interest in the more expensive end of the market, if people use the cash to get them that Merc, BMW or Lexus they always wanted.


So where does that leave me, looking to change the car in the next year or two - buy now or wait until Mar/Apr 2007 when all those late SSIA accounts mature?
 
I think you are making an incorrect assumption.

I won't spend SSIA cash on a car as over 50% of the price of a new one goes back to the govt in revenue (VAT/VRT).

That would mean I'd voluntarily give back the equivalent of double the value of the govt's SSIA contribution.

Not a chance.
 
Research in yesterday's Irish Times suggested that second hand car values had actually increased (pretty much across the board) in the past 12 months, a statistic that surprised me, especially since sales of new cars have been increasing.
 
I read an article in the Irish times a few weeks ago that indicated that about 20% of SSIA owners were thinking of buying new cars.

I think the big clunk of SSIA money will not hit the economy until Summer 07
 
I have an 02 Octavia and I want to trade up to an 05 Octavia. I think I need to do it soonish (before '07 anyway) before the 02 Octavia looses too much value when a glut of second-hand cars hits the market after the SSIAs start to kick in.

RS2K is correct re. giving the government back their SSIA contributions through car tax payment. However, I doubt people who buy new cars think that way.
 
As far as I can tell, people wouldn't generally consider the VRT and VAT of new cars when making their decision. I wouldn't consider a brand new car myself, but there are a lot of 06 cars on the road already (i.e. lots of other people don't agree with RS2K's or my own view on it).

I'd imagine that McCreevy also factored in that the government would get a good bit of the SSIA contribution back in the form of VRT, Stamp duty on houses and VAT on goods & services...

Another point which I should have put in the first post : About a year ago, I read about the motor industry lobbying for a change in the VAT or VRT for exporting cars. The story was based on the expectation that, after the SSIA maturity, there would be a flood of trade-ins which the motor industry wouldn't be able to sell unless there were exported out of Ireland (similar to Japanese imports, but the other way around). The current VAT/VRT situation makes exports of used Irish cars like this uneconomic.
 
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