Do not ever consider fixing a tracker rate. Ever.
- Thread starter Ryan
- Start date
That is a very "one size fits all" assertion and completely overlooks the fact that some trackers and very good value and some are poor value.
Brendan has outlined the factors to consider in this thread.
Key Post - Should borrowers with trackers consider fixing? (General guidelines)
It seems increasingly likely that we are going to see a series of rate hikes by the ECB in the near future. According to Philip Lane, ECB chief economist - "I think it’s clear that at some point we’re going to be moving rates, not just once, but over time, in a sequence." If the ECB raise the...
www.askaboutmoney.com
Here is my summary of the factors to consider whether you should fix a tracker rate or not.
What is the margin on your tracker?
If you have a tracker rate of ECB + 1.75% (or higher), it's of little value and you should almost definitely fix.
If you have a tracker rate of ECB + 0.5%, then you should probably not fix.
Note: "ECB + 1.75%" means that your tracker margin above the European Central Bank base rate is 1.75%. This is set in your mortgage contract.
And because the ECB base rate is 1.25% (as of September 2022), a person with an "ECB + 1.75%" tracker actually has an interest rate of 3%.
What rate can you fix at and how long can you fix for?
If you are a customer of permanent tsb the maximum term you can fix for is 7 years and the lowest rate is 3% (or 2.8% for their 5-year fixed green rate).
It may be worth giving up a tracker of ECB + 1.75%, but it's not worth giving up ECB + 0.5%
On the other hand, if you can switch to a 10-year fixed rate at about 2.9%, it may be worth doing.
If you are going to give up a cheap tracker, you should be fixing at a low rate for a long period.
There is no point in giving up a cheap tracker to fix for two years, as you would then be faced with the higher rates prevailing at the end of the two years.
How long is left on your mortgage?
If you have 20 years left on your mortgage, don't give up a cheap tracker to fix for 5 years.
On the other hand, if you have 10 years left on your mortgage, fixing for 5 years is probably OK. After 5 years, you will have paid off 50% of your capital, so the rate will be less important at that stage.
If you intend clearing your mortgage early, this would suggest you should not fix
For example, it may not be a good idea to fix if:
- You intend to trade up
- You intend to pay a significant lump sum off your mortgage
- You intend to significantly overpay your mortgage
Some AIB mortgage contracts, and maybe some others, allow you to return to your tracker after fixing
In most cases, when you fix, you lose your right to your tracker. But if your mortgage contract is crystal clear, then you could consider fixing. But it must be crystal clear and the margin must be specified, e.g., "At the end of any fixed rate period, you will have the option of returning to the tracker rate specified in Condition..." Get it in writing from your lender that you can return to this actual rate.
Some contracts say "You will be offered a tracker at the then prevailing rate". That is no good to you, as the prevailing margin at that time may well be 3.5%.
Be careful not to spend so much time arguing this with AIB that fixed rates have risen in the meantime.
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There are threads on this.
It makes perfect sense if you can fix for the entire or near remaining term of your mortgage at a particular rate
In my case I have 5 years and 5 months left.
My tracker is an excellent 0.95% - so 2.2% mortgage from 1st Oct, probably 2.7% 1st Jan and likely 3.45% or more by next June.
ECB is unlikely to return under 1.5% again (they have stated this)
So a 2.4% fixed for virtually the full remaining term made perfect financial sense.
Where it doesn't make sense is if I was subject to svr or follow on fixed rates for many years more.
It also made sense to some that fixed for 10, 15 or 20 years if they got 2.5% or lower and did not have a long period after the fixed rate finished.
They don’t have to. When you enter a fixed rate contract it will likely stipulate that you default to SVR at the end of your fixed period. That’s why I said never fix if you are currently on a tracker
These KBC fixed rates are not the same as KBC's regular fixed rates. The webpage explicitly states that if you fix on any of these rates, you will get your tracker rate back afterwards. Of course, you must double check that the contract for the fixed rate really does say this before fixing.
Yes you did say that and then @peemac and I gave various reasons why your blanket assertion is, well, a blanket assertion.
KBC tracker to fixed - horrendous rate.
Just for anyone with a KBC tracker that had thoughts of fixing. Don't even bother calling them. They are only offering "standard fixed rates" (whatever these are) if you are on a tracker. These rates start at 3.9% I have just over 5 years left. Tracker 0.95, LTV about 25%, so thought I'd take...
www.askaboutmoney.com
Key Post - Should borrowers with trackers consider fixing? (General guidelines)
It seems increasingly likely that we are going to see a series of rate hikes by the ECB in the near future. According to Philip Lane, ECB chief economist - "I think it’s clear that at some point we’re going to be moving rates, not just once, but over time, in a sequence." If the ECB raise the...
www.askaboutmoney.com
Brendan Burgess
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This is a very interesting point of view by Ryan.
I have been told that some commentators have said the same on the radio but it's clearly wrong.
It's clear that some people with high margins should fix.
For other cases with low margins, it's quite a close call. It's not clear either way.
Brendan
I have been told that some commentators have said the same on the radio but it's clearly wrong.
It's clear that some people with high margins should fix.
For other cases with low margins, it's quite a close call. It's not clear either way.
Brendan
newirishman
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I am already looking forward to several discussions on the topic of 'the bank should have offered me the cheap 5/7/10 year fixed rate back in 2020/21/22 but they didn't and I therefore want compensation' as soon as the ECB rate hits 2%+ and stays there.
RichInSpirit
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I'm with you Ryan on your viewpoint.
Can you expand on your reasons? I'm curious to know what you think about the "keep the tracker versus fix" decision.
DazedInPontoon
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Whatever type the bank are offering you and pushing, take the other type.
My perspective on this is changing slightly. There appears to be no end to ECB increases so I wonder if its worth the certainty.
My parents have a tracker and although there’s only around €70k outstanding, todays 0.5% increase is as much as they can handle before things start getting difficult
My parents have a tracker and although there’s only around €70k outstanding, todays 0.5% increase is as much as they can handle before things start getting difficult
What's their margin?
Why didn't they look at fixing earlier like so many others (including those with trackers) have done?
Are they holding assets/savings that could be used to reduce/repay the loan?
Maybe they should do a Money Makeover post?
Brendan Burgess
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Giving up a tracker to fix is less clear now as fixed rates have risen and ECB rates may be peaking today.
Brendan
Brendan
ECB rate peaking today at 2.5%? I don't think so.
The ECB state in their press release today that:
- PRESS RELEASE
Monetary policy decisions
15 December 2022The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and, based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, expects to raise them further. In particular, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. The Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Brendan Burgess
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Hi Protocol
Agree with you. "May be" is a bit strong.
No one can forecast interest rates but they are more likely to rise than fall or even have peaked.
Brendan
Agree with you. "May be" is a bit strong.
No one can forecast interest rates but they are more likely to rise than fall or even have peaked.
Brendan
I think the margin is 1% but not certain. Mortgage is with PTSB.
Wasnt fixed because mortage reverts to SVR at the end of fixed rate.
They have minimal cash savings but house is worth close to €400k so maybe they need to look at downsizing and clearing the mortgage
NiallSparky
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They probably received some advice along the lines of the first post in this thread that led them not to consider fixing.
I think there's still arguments on both sides, but many of the best fixed rates are gone at this point. If you can get a fixed rate for a few years at close to 2% then I would fix for sure.
I think there are still good fixed rates available but they have certainly increased since I started this thread back in May.
Key Post - Should borrowers with trackers consider fixing? (General guidelines)
It seems increasingly likely that we are going to see a series of rate hikes by the ECB in the near future. According to Philip Lane, ECB chief economist - "I think it’s clear that at some point we’re going to be moving rates, not just once, but over time, in a sequence." If the ECB raise the...
www.askaboutmoney.com
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PebbleBeach2020
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ECB rates peaking today??? What commentary are you basing that on Brendan? What I've read, there's more increases to go over the next 6 months. The 2.50% ECB rate now is heading towards 3.50 or upto 4.00% by June 2023.