Dermot Desmond's proposals for housing

KOW

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Dermot Desmond a man who normally seems to try and stay under the policy/political radar pens an article yesterday in the Times.
On RTE this morning he stated that the state should borrow 20b at one tenth of 1% to build.
How come Government policy and actions be so far from the opinions expressed by someone like Mr Desmond. Everything he states in the article and interview seems to make sense. Where is it all going wrong?
 

Sarenco

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Here’s the article -

I don’t see any proposal that the State should borrow €20bn.

It might sound crass but if some of the projections on the possible impact of COVID-19 come to pass that will release a very material amount of housing supply. The house ownership rate amongst the over-65s is very high in this country.
 

jpd

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There were some interesting and relevant opinions in the article but it did not make any suggestions as to where the workforce required to build 20,000 houses a year for 5 years was to come from

There are not anywhere near enough qualified bricklayers, carpenters, electricians, etc etc to increase our house building capacity to this level.

Training needs to be setup but I don't imagine you turn out skilled construction staff in a few months
 

jpd

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While deaths from Covid-19 may well turn out to be high, at current forecast levels - 1-3% deaths, it is not going to release that number of properties onto the market
 

KOW

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Here’s the article -

I don’t see any proposal that the State should borrow €20bn.

It might sound crass but if some of the projections on the possible impact of COVID-19 come to pass that will release a very material amount of housing supply. The house ownership rate amongst the over-65s is very high in this country.
Sarenco,

Follow up interview on RTE radio one this morning where 20b is suggested and little more info on his thoughts regarding this topic.

Regarding where workers will come from. From 1987-1992 I was in Toronto building for Canadians when there was not enough Canadians to do the work. Build it and they will come.
 

RedOnion

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Regarding where workers will come from. From 1987-1992 I was in Toronto building for Canadians when there was not enough Canadians to do the work. Build it and they will come.
Let's just hope they don't expect affordable accommodation when they get here!
 

Sarenco

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Follow up interview on RTE radio one this morning where 20b is suggested and little more info on his thoughts regarding this topic.
Thanks.

Here’s a link to the interview if anybody is interested.

The national debt is currently around €200bn so I doubt we could borrow an additional €20bn at current rates. In any event, it would breach the Growth and Stability Pact.

There’s a very odd section of the interview where Mr Desmond says that deposit rates are generally higher than rental yields. I’ve no idea why he thinks that’s the case.
 

Sarenco

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While deaths from Covid-19 may well turn out to be high, at current forecast levels - 1-3% deaths, it is not going to release that number of properties onto the market
Well, 3% of 1.9m is 57,000.

Those kind of numbers could see something like 30,000 housing units being released on to the market. That’s definitely material.
 

KOW

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Let's just hope they don't expect affordable accommodation when they get here!
:p Redonion,

Hate to sound like an old fart. Similar situation in Toronto to Dublin/Ireland back in 1987. Rent was first and last months rent. (2months rent) plus what was known as a months key money which was a bribe of one months rent to the superintendent or you were not getting in the building.

Five years graft and came back to the Emerald Isle with the price of a house. Rough enough some of the accommodation starting out.
So called key money wrong. But five years graft and no mortgage. Well I guess thats when men were men and all that.

I would hazard a guess there is many a European mountain man/women that might just come for a similar opportunity that the Canadians gave to me. Lol,
 

RedOnion

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There’s a very odd section of the interview where Mr Desmond says that deposit rates are generally higher than rental yields. I’ve no idea why he thinks that’s the case.
That's why we had no landlords before 2016!...
 

Delboy

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All this talk of building a mountain load of social housing across the country. Remind me again, what's the rental arrears figures for social housing tenants?
 

NoRegretsCoyote

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Zoning is necessary for development, but it's not sufficient.

You need sites with connecting roads, power, water, waste-water, etc. This can't be done with a magic wand. Desmond makes no mention of this.


Personally I would give the new LDA the job of assembling sites for development and making sure they have the services.


Without supply, no amount of finance is going to fix this.
 

Sunny

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It might sound crass but if some of the projections on the possible impact of COVID-19 come to pass that will release a very material amount of housing supply. The house ownership rate amongst the over-65s is very high in this country.
So RIP.IE is going to be the new property supplement!!! Wonder if they are looking for investment.....Irish Times will probably pay 100m for it...
 

TarfHead

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Those kind of numbers could see something like 30,000 housing units being released on to the market. That’s definitely material.
If that's meant as whimsy, it's in poor taste.

If it's an honest opinion, it's offensive.
 

Sarenco

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It wasn’t meant to be funny and I was careful to acknowledge that my observation might come across as crass.

I obviously sincerely hope that some of the current modeled projections in terms of the level of infections and mortality rates do not come to pass.

However, if the models are correct that will impact on the supply of housing.

Grim, I know.:confused:
 
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