default what now
- Thread starter gussy
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gussy - you are asking the wrong people. AAM, especially this thread represents Irelands pessimists as regards Ireland's future. AAM actually means "All Money Abroad."
The truth is ,so far, that those who put their money in sterling a month ago when there was a flurry of posts about opening accounts in newry etc have lost. Depending on the actual day, anyone depositing 50.000 could be 2-3.000 down .And that's before the loss of the selling and buying rate. That is, if you bought €50k 's worth of sterling and wanted it back today you may get less than €45k.
Never mind that ,they'll say, money should stay abroad until "the big crash"
They believe that if that if things go wrong with Greece -and, yes, there is a strong chance of that - this will only affect Ireland and Portugal. Actually it's the French and German banks that will suffer mightily. Generally the whole euro-zone will suffer and this may lead to a devaluation of the Euro..
But devaluation against what ? Sterling ? UK economy's in a bad way. No way do they want an expensive sterling rate. they'll just print more money.
The Dollar? HA HA HA HA.
The yen? Japan strongly against its currency getting more valuable.
However, many speculators are not taking their money out of Euro - they are puitting into German euro accounts. Why ?
They believe that , excuse while I stop laughing, that if there is a crash due to ,say, a Greek default and after the German and French banks have lost countless billions the German and French govnts will split the Euro.........
" let's make our Northern euro really expensnive -30% more than the peripheral euro. That'll do it. Of course, we wont be able to sell anything abroad but it doesn't matter. Our banks are weak but it doesnt matter. The Franco-German Euro will be strong!"
Without exports and badly damaged banks Germany is finished - and yet some people think Germany will make "their" Euro far dearer than "our" Euro !!
Of course, there are always profits to be made from intelligent speculation -a spread of vital commodities, precious metals (silver may rise more than gold,who knows?), and ,yes, a spread of currencies.
But just dumping your money in a German account ,which usually pays at least one percent less than over here, doesn't seem to make that much sense. And if you have the slightest feeling of Irishness consider this....
People, like the previous posters, who are getting AAM -All Money Abroad - are presently causing the economy a lot of harm . Whilst we all hate the banks we must acknowledge if there is no money in the banks they can't possibly lend to house hunters and small businesses.
By ,basically, causing a run on the banks they are making a fulfilling prophecy.
Of course there'll be a crash if everyone in Ireland takes their money abroad.
And thus the other posters can tell me "-told you so"
p.s. For the record I have two UK accounts with a few hundred quid, am an immigrant to ireland, and am keeping what I have here. Stupid foreigner?
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The truth is ,so far, that those who put their money in sterling a month ago when there was a flurry of posts about opening accounts in newry etc have lost. Depending on the actual day, anyone depositing 50.000 could be 2-3.000 down .And that's before the loss of the selling and buying rate. That is, if you bought €50k 's worth of sterling and wanted it back today you may get less than €45k.
Never mind that ,they'll say, money should stay abroad until "the big crash"
They believe that if that if things go wrong with Greece -and, yes, there is a strong chance of that - this will only affect Ireland and Portugal. Actually it's the French and German banks that will suffer mightily. Generally the whole euro-zone will suffer and this may lead to a devaluation of the Euro..
But devaluation against what ? Sterling ? UK economy's in a bad way. No way do they want an expensive sterling rate. they'll just print more money.
The Dollar? HA HA HA HA.
The yen? Japan strongly against its currency getting more valuable.
However, many speculators are not taking their money out of Euro - they are puitting into German euro accounts. Why ?
They believe that , excuse while I stop laughing, that if there is a crash due to ,say, a Greek default and after the German and French banks have lost countless billions the German and French govnts will split the Euro.........
" let's make our Northern euro really expensnive -30% more than the peripheral euro. That'll do it. Of course, we wont be able to sell anything abroad but it doesn't matter. Our banks are weak but it doesnt matter. The Franco-German Euro will be strong!"
Without exports and badly damaged banks Germany is finished - and yet some people think Germany will make "their" Euro far dearer than "our" Euro !!
Of course, there are always profits to be made from intelligent speculation -a spread of vital commodities, precious metals (silver may rise more than gold,who knows?), and ,yes, a spread of currencies.
But just dumping your money in a German account ,which usually pays at least one percent less than over here, doesn't seem to make that much sense. And if you have the slightest feeling of Irishness consider this....
People, like the previous posters, who are getting AAM -All Money Abroad - are presently causing the economy a lot of harm . Whilst we all hate the banks we must acknowledge if there is no money in the banks they can't possibly lend to house hunters and small businesses.
By ,basically, causing a run on the banks they are making a fulfilling prophecy.
Of course there'll be a crash if everyone in Ireland takes their money abroad.
And thus the other posters can tell me "-told you so"
p.s. For the record I have two UK accounts with a few hundred quid, am an immigrant to ireland, and am keeping what I have here. Stupid foreigner?
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....I blame all those forriners for all our troubles...they crashed the banks and made people lend and borrow wrecklessly, and then they hightailed it to forrin parts with bag-loads of cash and without easy extradition back to the auld sod.
But never mind all that. Loyalty to the state must mean that if you don't trust the banks (and why should you?) and you decide to save your hard-earned shekels by putting it in those forrin devil banks you can trust, well then you're a gombeen man, out to do the country in.
Maybe, just maybe if Irish banks were trustworthy, people wouldn't be hightailing it. And I agree with Chris, default in Ireland is almost inevitable. Even if it's not called default.
But never mind all that. Loyalty to the state must mean that if you don't trust the banks (and why should you?) and you decide to save your hard-earned shekels by putting it in those forrin devil banks you can trust, well then you're a gombeen man, out to do the country in.
Maybe, just maybe if Irish banks were trustworthy, people wouldn't be hightailing it. And I agree with Chris, default in Ireland is almost inevitable. Even if it's not called default.
I agree. Lets "pull on the green jersey".
Our government have done fantastic. They NEGOTIATED the reduction in rate and loan extension all by themselves!!!
Yes, I'm gonna follow the lead of our minister for finance and put my money where he has it.
.....oh wait....
you spin me right round baby right round, like a record baby, right round right round
Our government have done fantastic. They NEGOTIATED the reduction in rate and loan extension all by themselves!!!
Yes, I'm gonna follow the lead of our minister for finance and put my money where he has it.
.....oh wait....
you spin me right round baby right round, like a record baby, right round right round
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I also agree with oldnick. Although I don't blame people for worrying about their savings - I sometimes worry about mine and get ideas about opening an offshore account, stuffing the mattress or splurging my savings on hookers and coke (the idea being that if I'm going to lose it anyway I might as well enjoy it)
But then I take a step back and ask myself if I'm being rational. Panic results in irrationality. The more people that allow panic to influence their decisions, the worse it'll be for everyone.
A bit like the property mania really. "Get on the property ladder before it's too late" has been replaced with "get your savings into a German bank account before its too late". And the more people that buy into these fears, the more likely they are to come to pass.
But then I take a step back and ask myself if I'm being rational. Panic results in irrationality. The more people that allow panic to influence their decisions, the worse it'll be for everyone.
A bit like the property mania really. "Get on the property ladder before it's too late" has been replaced with "get your savings into a German bank account before its too late". And the more people that buy into these fears, the more likely they are to come to pass.
serotoninsid
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I most definitely don't agree with old nick. There's no sentiment to be had where my savings are concerned (and I'd imagine that's the case with all the others who have been posting on here - trying to work out what to do).
It's not 'pessimism' that has manifested itself on AAM in relation to this issue but shear pragmatism. Someone mentioned something about 'self serving gombeens'. Quite the opposite. Nothing has changed in relation to the manner in which Ireland Inc. is being run - and if there's gombeenism to be sought out, it's there that you will find it. And you guys call for patriotism (knowing that nothing has changed) over pragmatism? Good luck with that - but i'm out!
It's not 'pessimism' that has manifested itself on AAM in relation to this issue but shear pragmatism. Someone mentioned something about 'self serving gombeens'. Quite the opposite. Nothing has changed in relation to the manner in which Ireland Inc. is being run - and if there's gombeenism to be sought out, it's there that you will find it. And you guys call for patriotism (knowing that nothing has changed) over pragmatism? Good luck with that - but i'm out!
Did we not bring in a government with a mandate to do the heavy lifting that the previous administration wasn't capable of? If so, then why isn't this getting sorted? Have senior civil servants taken the trimming that's necessary? If not, why not?WizzardDr said:
Just to be clear.
It was only a last point of my post that mentioned the harm being done by those taking their money abroad.
The main point of my post was that even if there was a nasty default in Europe it is unlikely that there will be any major adverse effects on "our" Euros.
A good counter-argument on this point would be welcome.
It was only a last point of my post that mentioned the harm being done by those taking their money abroad.
The main point of my post was that even if there was a nasty default in Europe it is unlikely that there will be any major adverse effects on "our" Euros.
A good counter-argument on this point would be welcome.
Really? The CEO of Anglo was a foreigner? All that lending from irish banks without any deposit in place was decided by foreigners? All the govt's push into the fake bubble of ghost estates with tax-concessions came from foreigners?
Wow! I must have lost something here... Sorry but I think we all need to be humbler before blaming someone or something so strongly... Reality is what it is, that's it. And the wild tiger (=ROI seeking investors) will always eat the gazelles every day. But please let's not turn all foreigners into wild (insensitive) tigers.
I'm a foreigner but I deeply love this country. I moved my savings abroad as I don't want to become Saint in Ireland (sorry) but I keep declaring all of my untaxed interest here, I try to do voluntary work, trying to work hard in order to be taxed harder and deserve my job that might be given to a local person in more difficulties, etc.
Ireland made 2 mistakes in my opinion:
1) believing so much in derivatives like US-people did and not having a strong plan B in order to prevent domino effects
2) inflating so much the estate bubble just because no-one among the elected politicians (were they all foreigners with irish passport?) had the courage to say "party over my friends!" after for example the funds from European Community ended. Instead we keep hearing comments like "keep helping the economy by spending": yes, spend money you have, not money you borrow because that same economy wants full payment too...
I agree on diversifying the investments, that's sure. Noone is to be trusted anywhere.
And Ireland, Greece, Portugal as well as my beloved Italy with our disgusting bunga-bunga prime minister (involved with less than-18 years girls but he pays a lot to the party coalition which has got more credibility) are going to go bankrupt unless we all decide to agree that the Euro was just a stupid dream that cannot survive unless Europe becomes a country. We are at a cross-road: either we move into the United States of Europe or please let's finish this Euro-pantomime please...
But if anyone of you wants to blame recklessly and by generalizing so much then ok, that's your chosen approach trying to feed hatred instead of mindfully trying to change it as some of us (I hope the majority otherwise we're destined for a 3rd World War soon) are doing (good old "be the change you want to see in the world around you" as Gandhi said): at the end of the day it's easier to criticize than trying to change reality we all know that...
This is like preaching what you are not doing...
My suggestions:
1) please not to crucify people who are moving their hardly earned savings abroad just because they didn't have a big party in the celtic tigers' years and that are just saving for their dreams. But these same people might declare any lower interest here thus helping the economy somehow else.
2) please let's not keep feeding the fake slogan "help the economy by spending" without sense of true priorities. Yes, let's help the economy by spending but please not with borrowed money (which you mightn't be able to repay in the future) because the same economy wants full payment as well...
My opinions... Just my opinions...
I am being sarcastic Godfather. But foreigners do deserve part of the blame.
oldnick, blaming worried depositers for the woes of the banks, and for trying to squirrel away and protect their money is a bit like blaming the ratings agencies or shooting the messenger. What loyalty do depositors owe banks or even the state? They don't deserve loyalty. Let them prove trustworthiness,safety etc. When that happens money will return.
If the Euro breaks up, Germany will have no choice but to be a stronger DM as investors head to safety. Germany has the financial muscle to weather instability best.
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Sorry mate, that sentence wasn't sarchasm, it was black-or-white thinking that so much damage has done and has always been doing among people who try that approach...
Just my opinion, just my opinion...
Godfather it takes two to tango, reckless lenders and reckless borrowers.Foreign banks that lent recklessly share the blame. And bear in mind that private debt was heaped onto taxpayers with total disregard for capitalism. It's fairly black and white in this respect.
Exactly, so please let's blame them both without having to direct the blame to only one of them. Finally we reached agreement
Which foreign banks lent recklessly and to whom?
Not directly to the laypersons, the Irish electorate, but to Irish banks who should have discharged their duties far better than they did.
The Irish Banks were supposed to be the buffer, the professionals acting on their borrowers interest, but they became street traders, disavowing their professionalism.
They acted more like rogue traders, chasing share price and market share without any thought for the wider consequences, buying sub-prime mortgages as part of toxic packages without even checking them, offering 110% loans without requiring proof of identity or valuation.
Certainly there were influences at work from outside Ireland, but we were lured, not pushed and I didn't see bankers beating people over the head to accept unsustainable low interest rate loans.
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People taking their money out of the country are now compounding the error, forcing the taxpayer to borrow to fund the resultant loss of deposits to ensure banks remain viable.
When the book gets written on this, the only thing comparable to the forcing of odious debt on an unwilling electorate will be the actions of those who failed to support this country and moved their deposits elsewhere.
Some might be honest enough to admit what they've done, but shame on them anyway for doing it, and I can see I'm not alone in thinking like this about their actions.
They go on and on pontificating about their "losses" [which they have NEVER suffered] to justify their traitorous actions
All the time they are making it more likely Ireland will default through creating a deposit "Hole" for others to fill and making their fears into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Its the same Gombeen Man "I'm alright, Jack" attitude that has held this country back for so long and does more good for other economies than our own.
Depositors need to think about what they're doing to this country with every Euro they remove.
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"Its just money - its nothing personal".
Its very personal when another business fails and another family ends up on the dole queue.
I feel very strongly about this matter.
The flight of capital from Ireland has done this country immeasurable harm and we are barely holding it together.
I believe that Irish people who do not support the Irish economy in times like this should have their passports taken away.
They are behaving unpatriotically and are now little more than tools of destruction in the hands of foreign entities like the rating agencies.
If they don't see their role in keeping their money here and spending it here to help Ireland recover, then they are behaving like "mé-féiner" parasites.
Their supposed support for social contracts and democracy is thus only lip service, because supporting an abstract concept while not supporting the country itself is mere sophistry.
ONQ.