Brendan,
Thanks for posting detailed reply to my original queries re mortgage figs etc.
I have been trying to get my head around the figures which you have presented and done some further digging on reports issued by the Central Bank etc.
In order to fully analyse the DMcW argument re tracker time-bombs etc. I am trying to establish how much of the original boom lending amount in residential mortgage debt has been since written down by the borrower making capital repayments.
I have taken September 2009 as a benchmark – in particular because it is the earliest date that I can get this information for;
My limited research has established that in September 2009 v June 2012 the residential mortgage situation (excluding BTLs) is as follows;
Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of SEPT 2009 - €118,648,678,000 – 794,609 accounts
Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of JUNE 2012 - €111,989,313,000 – 761,553 accounts
(I have the above in table form but can’t seem to post it on this forum…..)
I am assuming that at the peak of the boom, the €119 bn above was near the max mortgage debt outstanding in Ireland - I stand corrected on this.
The figure for June 2012 is a reduction of €6.6 bn approx. on the mortgage overhang from the Sept 2009 figure or only 5.6% - this seems low for an almost 3 year period.
However the figure for June 2012 obviously includes any additional new borrowing which took place in the intervening 33 months – I am having difficulty establishing this exact figure…….some of my research indicates that this figure could be around €12 bn approx -TBC.
In your latest data one of your headline statements is that almost “80% of people are paying off their mortgages”.
I trust that this statement is based on the fact that the remaining circa 20% are either in arrears or have had their mortgages restructured.
What I would like to get established is what is the exact balance due on the Sept 2009 mortgage figure of €118,648,678,000??.
The reason being that it contains the vast bulk of boom debt, including the “tracker time bomb” - aka DMcW position.
A typical performing mortgage of say an average rate of 3.5% over a twenty year period would reduce the annual outstanding capital amount as follows over the next 20 years;
Year 1 - 3.76%
Year 2 - 4.02%
Year 3 - 4.31%
Year 4 - 4.64%
Year 5 - 5.00%
Year 6 - 5.42%
Year 7 - 5.89%
Year 8 - 6.44%
Year 9 - 7.09%
Year 10 - 7.85%
Year 11 - 8.76%
Year 12 - 9.88%
Year 13 - 11.29%
Year 14 - 13.09%
Year 15 - 15.50%
Year 16 - 18.87%
Year 17 - 23.94%
Year 18 - 32.39%
Year 19 - 49.29%
Year 20 - 100.00%
Is it possible that within the 80% of the mortgage accounts who are paying their mortgages – could a significant number be paying interest only – hence the capital is not being reduced??
have the banks told the Central Bank of the 80% of performing mortgages – what fraction is paying capital as well as interest??
The latest CB report states;
1. 49% of mortgages are on a tracker rate
2. 89% of mortgages are either tracker, variable or one year fixed
3. The average rate of all residential mortgages over 5 years is currently 2.86%
Do we have any idea of when the debt overhang of September 2009 will be cleared?? - Hence my previous question re maturity profile of the overhang of boom time debt.
Until I can get to the bottom of the above any discussion on tracker time-bombs etc with all due respects to all involved is taking place on the basis of educated speculation...
This kind of data seems to be readily available in the UK - for example within three years in the UK over 50% of all outstanding mortgages will be paid off - why don't we have that kind of data in Ireland?? - are the Banks withholding important data from the public and misguiding us all with the real state of the mortgage market??
Thanks for posting detailed reply to my original queries re mortgage figs etc.
I have been trying to get my head around the figures which you have presented and done some further digging on reports issued by the Central Bank etc.
In order to fully analyse the DMcW argument re tracker time-bombs etc. I am trying to establish how much of the original boom lending amount in residential mortgage debt has been since written down by the borrower making capital repayments.
I have taken September 2009 as a benchmark – in particular because it is the earliest date that I can get this information for;
My limited research has established that in September 2009 v June 2012 the residential mortgage situation (excluding BTLs) is as follows;
Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of SEPT 2009 - €118,648,678,000 – 794,609 accounts
Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of JUNE 2012 - €111,989,313,000 – 761,553 accounts
(I have the above in table form but can’t seem to post it on this forum…..)
I am assuming that at the peak of the boom, the €119 bn above was near the max mortgage debt outstanding in Ireland - I stand corrected on this.
The figure for June 2012 is a reduction of €6.6 bn approx. on the mortgage overhang from the Sept 2009 figure or only 5.6% - this seems low for an almost 3 year period.
However the figure for June 2012 obviously includes any additional new borrowing which took place in the intervening 33 months – I am having difficulty establishing this exact figure…….some of my research indicates that this figure could be around €12 bn approx -TBC.
In your latest data one of your headline statements is that almost “80% of people are paying off their mortgages”.
I trust that this statement is based on the fact that the remaining circa 20% are either in arrears or have had their mortgages restructured.
What I would like to get established is what is the exact balance due on the Sept 2009 mortgage figure of €118,648,678,000??.
The reason being that it contains the vast bulk of boom debt, including the “tracker time bomb” - aka DMcW position.
A typical performing mortgage of say an average rate of 3.5% over a twenty year period would reduce the annual outstanding capital amount as follows over the next 20 years;
Year 1 - 3.76%
Year 2 - 4.02%
Year 3 - 4.31%
Year 4 - 4.64%
Year 5 - 5.00%
Year 6 - 5.42%
Year 7 - 5.89%
Year 8 - 6.44%
Year 9 - 7.09%
Year 10 - 7.85%
Year 11 - 8.76%
Year 12 - 9.88%
Year 13 - 11.29%
Year 14 - 13.09%
Year 15 - 15.50%
Year 16 - 18.87%
Year 17 - 23.94%
Year 18 - 32.39%
Year 19 - 49.29%
Year 20 - 100.00%
Is it possible that within the 80% of the mortgage accounts who are paying their mortgages – could a significant number be paying interest only – hence the capital is not being reduced??
have the banks told the Central Bank of the 80% of performing mortgages – what fraction is paying capital as well as interest??
The latest CB report states;
1. 49% of mortgages are on a tracker rate
2. 89% of mortgages are either tracker, variable or one year fixed
3. The average rate of all residential mortgages over 5 years is currently 2.86%
Do we have any idea of when the debt overhang of September 2009 will be cleared?? - Hence my previous question re maturity profile of the overhang of boom time debt.
Until I can get to the bottom of the above any discussion on tracker time-bombs etc with all due respects to all involved is taking place on the basis of educated speculation...
This kind of data seems to be readily available in the UK - for example within three years in the UK over 50% of all outstanding mortgages will be paid off - why don't we have that kind of data in Ireland?? - are the Banks withholding important data from the public and misguiding us all with the real state of the mortgage market??
