A little bit of Black-Litterman hubris might swoon the gullible but it won't wash with professional institutional investors. Note how the argument in this quote is pitched at conservative institutional investors - 7% volatility target vs 20% volatility of your typical stock index. But under the smokescreen of a B-L diversification play the central assumption is that bitcoin will almost certainly outperform the stockmarket by 10% over the coming year with more plausible assumptions that it will outperform by 20% or 30%. On those assumptions an institutional investor with a equity type risk appetite should be 100% in bitcoin.Coindesk expert said:
but is that assertion correct, I wonder if we can find some evidence that he's wrong...
oh there it is.
As I mentioned in another comment, it's already happening. "Get a complete portfolio in one ETF." All of them contain some bitcoin exposure.
Once again, some are already fairly heavily in, e.g. Michael Saylor. My risk aversion has never allowed me to do the same even though I have always thought the most likely outcome was that bitcoin would outperform all my other investments, and it has.
Kelleher's argument was that whilst speculation can sustain bitcoin for a while it ultimately has to be justified by attaining a utility which is of USE. It can not survive on speculation indefinitely. "Store of value" is a euphemism for speculation. I agree with John, you don't, fair enuff
Of course we know that none of this means that Fidelity believe in crypto. They are both stirring up and catering for a market. Oh yes, they have to employ cultists who will swear by the White Paper or pretend to do so. This is not evidence that grown ups like the major pension funds, insurance companies and banks or even the Apples of this world have bought into the hype.
I do not regard Saylor as grown-up no more than I do Mr X.
Well done!
Have you a link to that Boss? This cost of mining thing is the greatest pink fish of them all. The cost of mining follows the price not the other way round. If the price of bitcoin falls to $1 mining will still go on just as it did way back when. With all the halvings since then there will of course be much, much less CPU power applied to mining and I will probably be able to take up the activity on my laptop.
Indeed.
fair enuff for me too.
Fidelity have actually been pretty pro-bitcoin for a long time, but this was not my point at all. My point was that anyone that might buy a "complete portfolio all in one ETF" from Fidelity will be indirectly buying bitcoin, regardless of whether they believe in it, or even know that they are. Bitcoin ETFs becoming a component of other ETFs is stealth adoption.
Could not agree more! and it's so obvious that I am shocked every time I see that point being made.
I see your point now. Obviously if it became de rigueur for every or a majority of institutional fund managers to have say 3% crypto in their portfolio - that would be a bit of a game changer. But you are not claiming that.
And the graphic below. This is really, really terrible from LEX. When the Satoshi finally drops there is going to be an awful lot of egg on the faces of some "experts" as they realise it is all a BOHA. But note that, as I harp on about, the vast majority of experts will not be so exposed. the fact is that despite all the hype, and now being stoked up as a marketing ploy by the likes of Fidelity, only a few mavericks like Saylor and Mr X give it any credence whatsoever.
What specific question did you ask it? ChatGPT can be useful at times but I don't think this is one of those instances.
Always good to have your input Firefly!Ya don't say