The June one is very attractive. The bubble will burst. But I don't know if it will be in one week, 3 months, 6 months, or 1 year.
It could even be longer. When people are irrational, there is no telling how long they will be irrational.
Unfortunately, there is some concern about the impact of Bitcoin on the stability of the CME - from an article in the FT at the weekend.
Race to launch bitcoin futures stirs anger
(interesting that the headline in the newspaper says "Race for bitcoin futures stirs concerns")
"Among those worried is Thomas Peterffy, chairman of Interactive Brokers. “I started in the futures industry in 1968. I’ve seen many futures brokers go bankrupt and customers losing all their money. So I know how this works,” he says.
When he learnt that the exchanges were pushing ahead with bitcoin futures, Mr Peterffy spoke to Terry Duffy, chief executive of CME, and Christopher Giancarlo, CFTC chairman. Mr Duffy told him “there’s nothing you can do about it”, while Mr Giancarlo said, “Look, my hands are tied”, recalls Mr Peterffy. CFTC representatives did not respond to requests for confirmation; the CME refused to comment. Mr Peterffy then wrote a letter to Mr Giancarlo, which he also published in the Wall Street Journal. In it he urged the regulator to require a separate clearing house for bitcoin futures so customer losses do not infect brokers who do not want to be involved."
It would be terrible to take the risk of selling a future for June 8th next, and then watch the market crash, only to find that one could not collect the winning bet because the broker or the exchange has gone bust.
If I sell 5 Bitcoins for $100,000, I would have to deposit a margin of $40,000. If Bitcoin doubles to $40,000 each, I would have to increase my margin to $80,000. Then if it falls, to 0 and the customers and brokers go bust, I might not be able to claim my $100,000 winnings. Worse still, I could lose the original stake.
Brendan