Brendan Burgess
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suports public health policy
domestic tax will be introduced on vaping and e Cigarettes next year
domestic tax will be introduced on vaping and e Cigarettes next year
cigarettes + 75 cents,
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Why would we give up on it when all evidence is that 15 year olds are not going on booze cruises to the UK to buy hundreds of Euros of cigarettes, but they are discouraged from initiating smoking by higher prices?
very few young people smoke. It will definitely see a big increase in duty free sale or simply bringing "personal supply" of duty paid cigarettes from almost any other eu country. 800-1000 is considered a reasonable personal supply. €8.50 a pack in Germany, circa €5 in Portugal. €5 or thereabouts in Duty free.
European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Drugs (ESPAD) 2019 (conducted every 4 years):This study ... found that “the decline in smoking has halted in Irish teens for the first time in 25 years (14%), and has significantly increased to 16% in boys while declining slightly to 13.6% in girls.”
14% doesn't seem like 'very few' to me for something that has such negative consequences and the trend beginning to reverse suggests more action is needed.
As for people importing personal supplies, I maintain that 15 year olds are unlikely to be spending €800-1000 on booze cruises and as for other smokers, what of it? The purpose of the policy is to stop people taking up smoking (and this is working) not to generate maximum revenue or ensure every cigarette smoked in Ireland is taxxed in Ireland.
I'm always very sceptical about surveys especially when it comes to young people who may not always answer with absolute truth.
Over the last 4 years I've had about twenty 17-21 year olds work for me and not a single one of them smoke. Their friends don't smoke either. €16.30 is a fair barrier.
But the flood of duty free will mean more cigarettes in a household and increase in consumption - because they are there and because they are cheap.
Self defeating I believe. (I'm a non smoker, but herself smokes)
This is a myth. There is some price elasticity between food and tobacco but it is the opposite of what you claim.
When food prices go up, tobacco use decreases. When tobacco prices go up, tobacco use decreases but food spending does not change.
I don't know about the survey but you're offering anecdotes, you're assuming that you know for sure that none of those 20 people smoke (evenings/weekends?), and there may be significant selection bias... you could run a lung cancer charity for all we know!
Gordon Gekko
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The price of cigarettes and the smoking ban have clearly discouraged smoking.
Vaping needs to be tackled now, so it’s good to see that it’s being targeted. It’s great as a step-down product, but the problem is that younger people, particularly girls, are vaping in sizeable numbers.
Vaping needs to be tackled now, so it’s good to see that it’s being targeted. It’s great as a step-down product, but the problem is that younger people, particularly girls, are vaping in sizeable numbers.
Brendan Burgess
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14% seems like very few to me. But I suppose it has to be asked what the long-term trend has been. I presume that there has been a long-term steady decline?
I asked a teenager recently how many of her friends smoke and she looked at me as if I had two heads. What sort of a stupid question was that? None of them smoked. She would have had no reason to lie to me. But I suspect it's groups. She probably hangs around with people who don't smoke. If you did your survey during lunch-time along the Dodder behind Marian College, you would concluded that 100% of teenagers smoke.
Brendan
If this were true, people in socially deprived areas logically should have the lowest smoking rates since they spend the highest proportion of their income on food. In reality it's exactly the opposite. Price elasticity tends to be lower for products that are addictive and harder to substitute (e.g. tobacco) than for items more easily substituted (e.g. healthy food for one's kids that can be replaced with cheaper and less healthy food). Admittedly, vaping has made cigarettes more easily substitutable than before. But this also means that taxes on vaping will fuel malnutrition and child neglect among the poor. Drug addiction has more to do with socialization, self-control, self-discipline and sense of self-worth than with the price of drugs.
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This approach has reduced smoking from ~50% of people to 10-15%, breaking the cycle of ill health and money spent on tobacco instead of food for millions of people. Quitting programmes and nicotine replacement products are free to support people breaking the addiction.
I agree it hits those worst off much harder, but what is the solution you have in-mind that would work better?
The study mentioned above says it's on the rise again after years of declining, more here, with vaping use mentioned as a factor. The proposed banning of flavours designed to appeal to children may go some way to addressing that, but I'd like to see a New Zealand-like approach where the minimum age to purchase any tobacco product increments by one each year.
I don't think that follows. If that were the case then surely New Zealand would be under a flood of duty free and the data doesn't back that up at all.
With a packet of fags now costing €16.75, there are not that many teenagers who will a) have access to sufficient cash to generate the habit b) be bothered spending that much on them.
I believe the government won't stop, or even pause, until they hit €20 a pack which should be around 2028/29.
I believe the government won't stop, or even pause, until they hit €20 a pack which should be around 2028/29.
Pocket money, odd jobs and baby sitting rates all tend to increase over time. Teenagers now have more cash than I ever did.
That can happen with any form of addiction.
If you can afford to smoke you are not poor. If you are buying cigarettes instead of feeding your children properly then you are a terrible parent.
Extra funding for the opposition...
Food is considered to be inelastic. Tobacco is relatively elastic, although the elasticity is not linear and of course there are other factors to consider. What can happen with food is that higher quality food may be sacrificed for cheaper, lower-nutrition food, which is a separate issue but still a problem. People tend to decrease food spend outside the home before they decrease overall food spend.
Younger and poorer people are more price sensitive re: tobacco and so are more likely to benefit from public policy like this.
NZ are in a position that the nearest low price country for them is many thousands of km away and not cheap to get to. I can pop to Birmingham / Liverpool / Manchester / Bristol / Glasgow and back in the same few hours for about €35 return. But also everyone knows someone going to / from the UK every week or so. Certainly I doubt Mrs PeeMac will find herself spending €16.75 on a pack of Marlboro and our visit to crufts next March will be "self financing" (€47 same day return each)
