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I may as well kick off the annual festival post which tends to run for the duration. Im posting a synoposis after a conflab between the usual notaries in the stillorgan hotel the other night.
My one nap is still kingscliff in the gold cup which none of them seem to fancy, hes as high as 6/1 second fav which Ive taken e/w. Having said that Ive backed bestmate for each of his first 3 wins so am a bit tied.


===================================
This is what was been talked about at a preview in Stillorgan hotel last
night.



Well,
It was ok last night. Not an awful lot of new things learned, more
concreting what we all ready knew. All though there was few interesting
handicappers thrown about and a few bankers labelled by the brave.

Supreme Novices
Marcel was ruled out, too many times at the well this season. Publican was
not liked despite his good work in Leopardstown on Sunday, likewise with
Akshar. Both may want it softer than it is going to be. They all liked
Justifies and he will be a short priced favourite on the day as like other
years with Back In Front and Brave Inca last year, the Irish will lump on
him to get us off to a flyer. Wild Passion has his chance as does My Way De
Solzen but they all liked Justified. Chilling Place is a good each way.

Arkle Trophy
Ned Kelly cannot be backed, can't trust his legs. Foreman good each way but
War Of Attrition was pretty much donned as the banker of the festival by
many of the panel including Jonathon Powell and The Couch.
Ashley Brook also touted as way too big a price. Don't like Watson Lake's
jumping and Contraband and Ulaan Baatar lack the class.

Champion Hurdle
Obviously going to be an Irish winner with Rooster having no chance, Inglis
Drever likely to go for the Long Walk and Essex is a handicapper, no
chance. Harchibald would not have had any takers even if he ad worked well
on Saturday. He spat the dummy looking up the hill in the County Hurdle
last year and much would of happened the same this year when Brave Inca,
Hardy Eustace and Back In Front practically come in their saddle when they
see the for of the hill coming off the home turn. Geraghty really fancied
Macs Joy as did Mullins and two others. Nothing mentioned about Brave Inca
or Back In Front but the panel believed it to be between Macs Joy and the
defending Champion. They did not eliminate brave Inca or Back In Front,
they just were not talked about. But, 8's on Macs Joy was a huge price they
thought. I personally didn't really understand this as Back in Front is
going to eat them all.

Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle
Ambobo. Ambobo. Ambobo. Gold Medallist hasn't beaten anything. Hasn't
showed any outstanding class. Royal Paradise will go close but may be
beaten by toe and the hill. Queen Astrid huge price and good each way
value. All members said it was a horrible race to bet on as we know but
Ambobo was very popular. Proven over track and distance.

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase
Lord Of Illusion. Another 'good thing'. No one liked Ollie Magern except
Gleeson as they all thought he was in a similar boat to Marcel and will be
found out at the festival even if he runs in this as opposed to the Gold
Cup. Keepatem unbelievable price if he runs. I think he is going to go for
the Telegraph though. He'll win that.

Champion Bumper
Not sure why I am even discussing this farce but how and ever. All anyone
was talking about last night was Missed That. It appears he absolutely
laughed at everyone in his workout off level weights. Huge amount of praise
for him. Looks like another Joe Mac and Liberman situation. Joe Mac didn't
win though. Chronicle won't lay him at 5/2 now. Says he is gamble of the
festival now and stands to lose a fortune. No way I am touching the race
but the talk about this young pretender is exciting and will be interesting
to see how things turn out. Karanja was best of the rest.

Stayers
If Rule Supreme goes there most of the panel thought he would beat the
Animal. If he doesn't the Animal is a banker with Emotional Moment taking
the scraps. You know what I think.

Triumph Hurdle
All very impressed with Akilak and his debut performance. Many said to
disregard his second run and it was a falsely run race. Cerium mentioned
but what was interesting was Gereghty who said and I quote 'I fancy the
sh*t out of Barati'. Interesting.

Gold Cup
Culloty gave four valid reasons why Egg Or Chips beat him at Leopardstown.
He spoke as if he was confident and said that he was his banker. Mullins
then said that if Rule Supreme goes to the Gold Cup he will win. This
stirred the crowd a bit. He was adamant, and maybe drunk. Celestial Gold
was touted . They were split half way on Best Mate, is he too old la, la,
la. He is a course specialist and will win for a fourth time. The ground
will be absolutely perfect for him and II and they believe 5/2 to be an
enormous price. Kingscliff ? no chance. Couldn't back Strong Flow as you
don't know what will show up as with Beef Or Salmon.

In regards to the handicaps;

Big tip for Captain Correlli
L'Ange Au Ciel (nap)
Keepatem provided he runs in the Telegraph (nap)
Spot Thedifference (nap)
Al Eile (nap) provided he does not run in the Champion
Point Barrow (nap)
 
naps

i've followed the regular English Saturday racing now for the past few months and I can say with certainty that Ireland are going to have a brilliant year.

Have to agree with the panel in an awful lot of their selections.

My ultimate NAP is Ambobo on Wednesday. Absolute class win back a month ago and is going to love that hill in Cheltenham.

I've fancied Hardy Eustace for years and speaking of course specialist, then look no further than him. class act on course and ground he'll love.

I fancy Wild Passion in the first and is way too big a price at 14/1. Justified hasn't beaten much to date but Wild Passion's form is rock solid if you ignore his last run, which had everyone mystified.

Lord of Illusion is out so I'd stick with Ollie Magern who's the best of an otherwise bad lot.

I love Al Eile, but not in the Champion Hurdle as was reported this morning. I think at 12/1 for the Coral, he's an outstanding horse. just wary that Cheltenham might not suit him but the pace that the race is run at will suit him down to the ground and he eats ground in the last few furlongs.

I've fancied Kingscliff as well for ages but the value is now gone at 6/1. way too short for a horse that has only ran around 6 times. He has won at Cheltenham over the course and distance at the festival 2/3 years back, but I'm beginning to think that if the "good" Beef or Salmon turns up, it'll be between himself, Best Mate and the other Alner horse Sir Rembrandt. At 20/1, the horse is proven in the Gold Cup and may get very close this year.

Moscow Flyer all the way as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
back strangely brown in the triumph hurdle. the early anti-post odds have fallen back to 16-1 since its win in leopardstown but it's still great value each way. the horse is doing great in training and will be even better at cheltenham than it's been up to now.
 
Back the first horse in the second race on the third day....... always a good one.
 
These are my selections..no tips again this year..:(

Supreme Novices' Hurdle &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
Usually a short priced Irish Runner wins, decided to go against the flow. 1st two I think are great e/w bets
Manorson &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 33-1
Only Vintage &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 12-1
Queen Astrid &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 16-1

Irish Independent Arkle Chase
&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
War Of Attrition &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 11-4 Deserves to be favourite

Watson Lake &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 6
Mariah Rollins &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 14

MY WILL (FR) &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 12 Good E/W bet - Improving
Almaydan &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 33 Good E/W bet

Smurfit Champion Hurdle &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
A good bet in this race would be for an Irish winner
Back In Front &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 7/2 Excellent chance
Essex &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 7 Young Kid on the block, brilliant season
Harchibald 11/2 drifting and starting to be unfancied
Hardy Eustace &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 3/1 Tough nut
Macs Joy - 6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 7/1 1st Day NAP - Real Class horse I reckon that this has been the target all year.

William Hill H'cap Chase &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
32 runners...The favourite Colourful Life is a good bet for the Scottish Grand National
Frenchman´s Creek 16 Very Good E/W
Spring Grove 28 Very Good E/W

Kelami 14 French Horse with a chance
Joly Bey &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 10 Possibly more geared for the Grand National
TIKRAM&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 8 Smart Money maybe for this one
Keepatem 10 Entered in at least 3 races, will win one , but which one ??

Sporting Index H'cap Chase &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
One of the new races of the new 4 day festival..
MRS BE (IRE) &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 25 E/W bet
TAKAGI (IRE)&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 8 Has a chance ...
SPOT THEDIFFERENCE (IRE) 3 Deserving fav, won trial race over course and distance ??

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle
Another of the new races of the new 4 day festival..
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE)&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 20/1
MARALAN (IRE)&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 10/1 GOOD CHANCE also

Other possibles
NANGA PARBAT (FR) &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 8
PAPINI (IRE)&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9
SLIGHTLY SHIFTY (IRE) &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 50

darag
I also fancy Strangely Brown, grabbed him at 25s ante post
 
Anyone know whats happened to Ambobo? He's listed as doubtful for the Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle.
 
Ambobo - (I know I'm devastated too!)

[broken link removed]
 
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