Central Bank latest arrears stats published

CorkHome2022 said:
https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...-into-arrears-for-first-time/a/161652714.html
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You really need to look at actual report for the context. This figure is down on what it was 3 months prior. No mention of this in the article.
  • At end-June, 3.0 per cent (21,081 accounts) of total PDH accounts outstanding were in arrears for more than 90 days, unchanged from end-Q1. This remains the lowest share of PDH accounts in arrears over 90 days on record.
  • At end-June, 12,315 PDH accounts (1.8 per cent of total accounts outstanding) were in early arrears (less than 90 days), down from 13,694 (2.0 per cent of total), at end-March 2026 (Chart 2). Banks accounted for a decrease of 308 accounts while non-banks saw a decrease of 1,071 accounts over the period.
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It was this bit that caught my eye.
“These are new arrears, new households experiencing such financial distress that they are missing home mortgage payments,” he said. “These are not the same accounts from the previous quarter’s statistics.”

Are these ones still with the High Street Banks ? The figures need a bit more detail .
 
The detail is there but you have study it.
1789822203632.webp


You can adjust the inputs to chart 2.

Arrears <90 days
Banks fell from 1.3% in Q1 to 1.2% in Q2
Non-banks fell from 5.7% to 4.8%

Someone who is in arrears of <90 days in Q2 could have come from any of the following sources:
1) A person falling into arrears for the first time.
2) A person who was in arrears <90 days in Q1, who is still in <90 days arrears in Q2
3) A person who was >90 days arrears in Q1 who has since reduced their arrears.

It's important to understand the Central Bank's definition of arrears.
Say my repayment is €1,000 per month
If I owe €1,000 I am one month in arrears, so I fall into the category <90 days arrears.
I might have missed than €1,000 payment last month, or a year ago and have not repaid it.
 
My last post was deleted so I'll try and rephrase it. I was only trying to use an internet bill as an example not going off topic.

Do the people less than 90 days in mortgage arrears include payments which are missed by a 2-3 days and then repaid which can happen by mistake. I was wondering if these circa 12k people in arrears could include accidental missed payments or are they all have to be, say over 30 days but less than 90. Are the numbers a true reflection of the difficulty people are in or inflated?
 
No. I think it's a point-in-time measure. At the end of Q2 2026 — i.e. on 30 June 2026 — there were 12.315 accounts in arrears of less than 90 days. If you missed a payment due on 1 June, but paid it on 7 June, then on 30 June you weren't in arrears at all, and so you're not included in that figure.

However, if you missed a payment due on 28 June and you paid it on 2 July you are included in that figure, because on 30 June you were in arrears by two days.
 
My understanding is if you miss a payment you are classed as a late payment until the next payment is due
If you haven't made good the payment in that time period or miss the next payment then you are classed as in arrears
Are late payments included in arrears of <90 days ??
 
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it’s difficult to understand. More people in early arrears for the first time buy less overall.

How did those numbers drop. Did they move into long term arrears or make the repayments and exit arrears.
 
Always worth scrolling to the end


Arrears: arise on a mortgage loan account where a borrower has not made a full mortgage repayment, or only makes a partial mortgage repayment, in accordance with the original mortgage contract, by the scheduled due date.

Arrears of over 90 days past due do not
necessarily signify that borrowers have not made mortgage repayments for the last 90 days,
or three months. For example, a borrower can be making partial repayments on a monthly
basis but may still be in arrears of a value equivalent to over 90 days past due
 
skrooge said:
Always worth scrolling to the end
Click to expand...

Or reading my Plain English summary

Brendan Burgess said:
It's important to understand the Central Bank's definition of arrears.
Say my repayment is €1,000 per month
If I owe €1,000 I am one month in arrears, so I fall into the category <90 days arrears.
I might have missed than €1,000 payment last month, or a year ago and have not repaid it.
Click to expand...
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Or reading my Plain English summary
Click to expand...
My reading of the CBI definition is it's more general than your example. A mortgage will be classified in arrears if you fail to meet all your repayments in full. But that's not the main issue here.

Back to the original article, talk about clickbate. It really is a lazy piece of work.

Looking at the actual numbers the CBI publishes you could easily make the case that inspite of all the challenges facing households things have never looked better. The number of households in early arrears is the lowest on record! As clearly stated in the release the total number in arrears is also down.

While there has been an (modest) increase in the number of households in arrears over 90 days (a whopping increase of +43), when expressed as a percentage of the total mortgaged household it's also at record lows. Staying with numbers, the modest increase in over 90 days (the same +43) is more than offset by a decrease in 1 year+ (-264).

While the article is correct that 12,315 are in early arrears -as has been pointed out by others - there's nothing to say they all relate to missed payments in for the first time in the 3 months to end june. They could be a hangover of any time in the past.

Of course that's a snapshot of the now and things might indeed get worse. But you can say that without misrepresenting the facts.

Having looked at both the article and the CBI release the biggest arrears I can see is to standards in journalism.
 
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