Buy now or sit tight?

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There is definitely a sense of increased selling in the market for the past 2 weeks.
There has been a massive glut of selling since Sept 1st for the new property season. However, only 15% of the houses are actually selling.

That sunday indo article tells a lot.

I heard a few weeks ago (from an auctioneer) that the auctioneers are recommending to their property investor friends that the market cycle is finished for now. they recommend selling investment property, as the rental yields are only 1-2%, and there may not be any great capital appreciation to hold things up.
 
You need to ask yourself a few questions along the lines of why you are interesting in buying, are you looking for a home to settle in long term? is this a hopeful 'investment'?, do you need to buy right now? could renting be a reasonable alternative for a few years? are you under family/peer pressure to 'get on the ladder', can you realistically handle the repayments on whatever mortgage you are looking at? would be be planing on trading up in a few years and if so how would you cope if there had been a stagnant market or crash in the intervening timeframe? etc. etc..
 
Eurofan said:
You need to ask yourself a few questions along the lines of why you are interesting in buying, are you looking for a home to settle in long term? is this a hopeful 'investment'?, do you need to buy right now? could renting be a reasonable alternative for a few years? are you under family/peer pressure to 'get on the ladder', can you realistically handle the repayments on whatever mortgage you are looking at? would be be planing on trading up in a few years and if so how would you cope if there had been a stagnant market or crash in the intervening timeframe? etc. etc..
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Why don't you check out the state of the market yourself by checking out some properties in an area you are thinking of buying in. Talk to EA's and see of a vendor is willing to accept a lower price than the asking etc. If they are it is probably a good indication that prices are coming down.
 
If you think a house costing say 450k in Dublin today will be less in 5 yrs you are in lala land I think,the house will be no less than 550K in my opinion, house prices in Dublin dont go down only up not as fast as they were growing before but still going up none the less. I heard same stuff 3 yrs back, guess what house 3 yrs back 310k now 465 K, I think you should just take the plunge before you have no chance
 
dodo said:
If you think a house costing say 450k in Dublin today will be less in 5 yrs you are in lala land I think,the house will be no less than 550K in my opinion, house prices in Dublin dont go down only up not as fast as they were growing before but still going up none the less. I heard same stuff 3 yrs back, guess what house 3 yrs back 310k now 465 K, I think you should just take the plunge before you have no chance
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Umm... There are already instances of houses dropping in asking price in the past few months, never mind 5 years time?
 
ncs said:
Umm... There are already instances of houses dropping in asking price in the past few months, never mind 5 years time?
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but its just market adjusting to a barrage of investment property going up for sale.Trimming the fat. it happens in every market, but only at the high-end market. the 8.5mill hse drops to 7.9mill.
The price of a 3-bed semi wwill never drop :)
On the other hand, the price of bigger apartments might adjust a wee bit; but its hard to see then not go upwards with inflation at a min for next few years.
 
paddyd said:
but its just market adjusting to a barrage of investment property going up for sale.Trimming the fat. it happens in every market, but only at the high-end market. the 8.5mill hse drops to 7.9mill.
The price of a 3-bed semi wwill never drop :)
On the other hand, the price of bigger apartments might adjust a wee bit; but its hard to see then not go upwards with inflation at a min for next few years.
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Based on that analysis it appears you have made up your mind?
 
mprsv1000 said:
Having read a number of articles about house prices in Dublin/Ireland, I am wondering if it is better to sit tight and see how things go, if house prices might drop (am I just living in hope?).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Property_Bubble




What do people think?
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I think you have nothing to lose by waiting and seeing at the moment. The banks have estimated that next year property prices will only rise at the same rate as inflation(~3%) at best.

If you're happy renting for the short-term then you could save a fortune and be in a good position to reasses things at a later date.
 
Duplex said:
Based on that analysis it appears you have made up your mind?
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Luckily i own my own hse, and don't intend to move for some time; so to be very honest, I'm not sure I really care what happens! I'm very confident that the ass won't fall out of hte market; and if it goes the other way, up up up, then great; but remember that capital appreciation is no good unless you sell, and you still need to live somewhere.
 
paddyd said:
Luckily i own my own hse, and don't intend to move for some time; so to be very honest, I'm not sure I really care what happens! I'm very confident that the ass won't fall out of hte market; and if it goes the other way, up up up, then great; but remember that capital appreciation is no good unless you sell, and you still need to live somewhere.
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Why is that great? the day you sale to upgrade, the house you buy will certainly have risen by about the same % as your current house , so you simply have to get a bigger mortgage, i.e. more debts, no really great in my opinion..
The "true" winners will be the one who sale but do not buy again, i.e make a real profit, or downgrade.
 
bacchus said:
Why is that great? the day you sale to upgrade, the house you buy will certainly have risen by about the same % as your current house , so you simply have to get a bigger mortgage, i.e. more debts, no really great in my opinion..
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odd logic. if I wanted to upgrade in a few years (if), and if my house had appreciated another 30-40%(?), my loan2value rate would be very small indeed, I'd be in a much stronger position to trade up
but that won't be happening :)

bacchus said:
The "true" winners will be the one who sale but do not buy again, i.e make a real profit, or downgrade.
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and where will these people live?
 
It is not an odd logic, and i am not talking about strength for upgrading, that 's a complete different matter.
Say current house is €400k (assume 100% equity for exercice), the new one is €600k: need to borrow €200k (let's leave all other costs aside for now)
Say house prices increase by +20% --> so you now need to borrow +20% extra , i.e. €240k..Still great?

The one being impacted most by house price increase are obvioulsy the one trying to get onto the ladder...

The "true" winners will be the one who sale but do not buy again, i.e make a real profit, or downgrade.
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and where will these people live?
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"do not buy again" = investors. people moving aborad, or people who decides to rent
"downgrade" = well, in there new smaller property:(
 
bacchus said:
It is not an odd logic, and i am not talking about strength for upgrading, that 's a complete different matter.
Say current house is €400k (assume 100% equity for exercice), the new one is €600k: need to borrow €200k (let's leave all other costs aside for now)
Say house prices increase by +20% --> so you now need to borrow +20% extra , i.e. €240k..Still great?

The one being impacted most by house price increase are obvioulsy the one trying to get onto the ladder...
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mmm, ok, I get you, but its a pretty extreme case I think you agree!
Actually, to that degree, I heard recentry on the Sunday Business Show that the average mortgage across all sectors of the property market was €240k. I nearly crashed the car when I heard! surely its more?
 
paddyd said:
mmm, ok, I get you, but its a pretty extreme case I think you agree!
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No, i do not think it is an extreme case unfortunately. It is actually the "norm" for everybody who has upgraded in the past few years.

I would have much preferred prices to remain stable, or increase at inflation rate but no more. Anything above simply brings instability into the market. People care too much about the current price of their property, they spend more time talking about the price rather than why they love to live where there live.
I am a bit like you, i do not care about current value as long as my house value stay in line with the "trend"... I will care about it the day i sell.... to upgrade:)
 
Maybe its been said already but have you thought about putting your name down on the affordable housing list?
 
dodo said:
If you think a house costing say 450k in Dublin today will be less in 5 yrs you are in lala land I think,the house will be no less than 550K in my opinion, house prices in Dublin dont go down only up not as fast as they were growing before but still going up none the less. I heard same stuff 3 yrs back, guess what house 3 yrs back 310k now 465 K, I think you should just take the plunge before you have no chance
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Have you heard of Japan?
 
bacchus said:
I will care about it the day i sell.... to upgrade:)
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And when that day comes, your LTV will be low, and releasable equity will be high; sure it will cost you 100-150k to get that extra bedroom in another house, but what did you expect?

Personally, if i ever trade up, I'd probably only move to a self-build, back home in the sticks; and even then would ideally like to keep my hse here and rent it.
 
ncs said:
Umm... There are already instances of houses dropping in asking price in the past few months, never mind 5 years time?
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...which is not the same as falling house prices ! As Garret Fitzgerald might say " there is a deceleration in the rate of acceleration " in house prices. :D
 
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