Brexit and the Euro

[tecate]

IF (and perhaps that's a bit IF) we arrive at some sort of clarity as regards Brexit over the coming weeks, will that clarity have any impact on the strength of the euro?

Is there anyone here that follows Forex markets and has some insight on this (understanding that to be a relative thing of course)?

I have a not insignificant sum to convert from euro to usd. I'd prefer to get it done and dusted but if it made sense, I can hold back on it for a few months.

 

[Drakon]

The Central Bank made an announcement on this and it's being reported in today's papers. They expect EUR and GBP to be close to parity. Historically, movements in GBP track USA and vice-versa, but whether with will also happen with Brexit is another unknown.

I think the view by the CB is based more on the impact of Brexit on the GBP than on the EUR.

 

[EmmDee]

You are looking at EUR / USD - so I don't think Brexit will have a massive impact. But broadly speaking - exit without a deal is likely to see GBP tank vs EUR and USD. Anytime that has looked more likely, GBP has weakened.

On EUR/USD, it is at about 1.1230. That's pretty much as strong as it's been for 12 months and any commentary I've seen seems to indicate further USD strength - though the fact the brakes have been put on interest rate increases for the rest of the year seems to have slowed USD strength.

I have the opposite position to you - I have $ and waiting to convert back to EUR. If it helps at all, I am holding on for a while longer.