Brexit and the Border

[RETIRED2017]

That's not what I said thanks. In no way am I minimising the impact of Brexit. But I also have no time for your anti EU bailout rants. The EU didn't screw Ireland during the financial crisis. If the EU wanted to blackmail us over Apple money or tax base or whatever else you want, they would have done it already. They would have insisted on conditions to make the Irish border a central part of the Brexit negotiations. Instead they are willing to risk a no brexit deal which would impact all of the EU rather than just leave Ireland on it's own to deal with the border issue. Because when it comes down to it, Europe shouldn't really care if there is hard border or not. Read up how much money the EU has pumped into peace process related projects in the North and South. They have been a huge supporter without blackmailing us or putting in conditions for many years. Read the UK's own analysis and see how see much North/South Co-operation is underpinned by EU law and EU support. The EU like every other large political organ is massively inefficient and has many flaws but reading some of the nonsense that people talk about when it comes to the EU and this Country beggers belief.

I am not on a anti EU bailout rant in fact I understand and know the point you have made , From what I have seen the UK Business owners have lots done to continue trading if there is a bad deal ,

To be expecting billions of euro to be poured into Ireland with a no deal or bad deal is just not going to happen without movement on what they see as Irish tax loopholes and unfair advantage being closed first ,

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

There is no question of a Simon Varadkar land grab, you'd swear they were appearing wrapped in tricolours with the flack they get over this. Their job is to protect the GFA and avoid a hard border, they should make absolutely no apologies for that.

Leo Varadkar very early doors made the most incredibly insensitive promise "this time the Irish Government will not let the Northern Nationalists down". This time? I presume the last time was the Treaty and him a supposed Blueshirt. So a hard border in NI is purely a gross affront to nationalists? There we have it. Nothing to do with inconvenience across the frontier or folk whose house straddles the border. Pure and simple this is a symbolic struggle between nationalism and unionism, or so Leo has set out the stall with Simon an enthusiastic cheerleader. (And both with a view to a future coalition with SF/IRA)

I'll eat my hat if they crash out on a no deal in March.

I agree with you there. There will be no crash out. But there is a probability of No Deal - PaddyPower bets 1/2 there will be No Deal by B-day. But no, I don't think there will be a cliff edge. Some sort of transition phasing in period will be cobbled together maybe a statement that WTO will apply from January 2020. That means a hard border.

 

[Betsy Og]

Dinnae fash yerselves, bascially the UK took a knife to a gunfight, needless to say it didn't go well. They now know where they are in the world order, there is not enough machismo left to voluntarily cut their own throats with a No Deal Brexit - it will not happen - & they will not starve the EU into submission (I shouldn't really go there but it seems its back in vogue....who knew?). Sooner or later they will see sense, or at least enough among them will.

So I wouldn't waste time worrying about No Deal.

 

[Betsy Og]

Leo Varadkar very early doors made the most incredibly insensitive promise "this time the Irish Government will not let the Northern Nationalists down". This time? I presume the last time was the Treaty and him a supposed Blueshirt.

Well as I'm sure you know The Treaty was more about accepting a Free State, as opposed to a Republic, and the Oath. Norn Iron was supposed to be dealt with by Boundary Commission - how??, is anyone's guess, and if they did it "right" you'd probably have a smaller more orange NI and maybe an India/Pakistan back your bags mate "solution". The Treaty was accepted by peoples vote (to adopt modern terminology). So a "Blueshirt" does not necessarily need to hang his head as regards Norn Iron..(shhh, dont mention Bruton...).

The Border matters more to Nationalists re A) politically (obv) but B) proximity - & of course it matters to people in the Border Counties of Ireland too - so that was probably what he meant - he didn't (couldn't) have meant that we're getting the 6 back.

But back to my point, for peace on this land it is better not to have a hard border.... maybe that's been over-egged ...but it's certainly not irrelevant, and more crucially a hard border or not does not influence the ultimate destination of Norn Iron (though you might speculate that its just timing at this stage....) which is the concern of the other tradition. So it is legitimate for the Irish government to argue on this point, it does preserve the status quo, it does not move NI any closer to UI. If unionists want to get the hump well that's just too bad, I'm not willing to risk the downsides of a hard border to give succour to their insecurities.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Betsy I am still scratching my head as to what Leo meant when he said "this time". I'm also scratching my head as to why he decided to really up the Orange/Green dimension? Surely "this time" was not referring to the Treaty. Maybe all those years of Mopery* suffered in the six counties. Maybe it was Jack Lynch deciding to keep his army in Dundalk in 1969. Whatever he was referring to it conjured up an image of a people under siege in dire threat of some foreign imposed calamity. Let's get real, a bit of extra paperwork or maybe cameras on the M1 are hardly grounds for seeking help from the United Nations.

* MOPE - Most Oppressed People Ever

 

[Betsy Og]

I agree, I wouldn't have used those words, they don't help, the fact that we're grappling at what he meant is not a great sign BUT their subsequent actions and aims are entirely legitimate. By any objective standard the "ruse" - if we go as far as calling it that - swung a sweet deal for NI, Scotland was saying we want that too. I think we can agree that checking lorry paperwork in a ferry queue (which they do anyway) is even less obtrusive. Cameras on the motorway wouldnt do, and even if they would there's enough 'head the balls' to attack them and then potentially the cycle starts.

Basically the DUP failed the people of NI by A) voting leave & B) opposing the sweet deal offered to NI. What will the NI farmers make of it all as EU subsidies shut off & now the threat of no market access - I'm hoping they show their dissatisfaction at the ballot box.

 

[Leo]

We're going to have a hard job finding new outlets for our agri-business products, it'll be a lot harder trying to sell those to the French or Italians than the British.

A 40% increase in exports of dairy products to other EU countries last year suggests otherwise.

Many in the Irish agri-business might welcome a hard border / trade barriers. North-South milk imports have been increasing significantly over the last few years, even though we produce way more than we need. 2015 imports into Ireland were 500 million litres, this increased to 800m litres in 2016. All this at a time when Glanbia is putting few hundred million into drying plants to satisfy their obligation to take in all milk produced by their coop members. The UK isn't a significant market for those products.

67% of all UK dairy exports are to Ireland, only 10% go beyond the EU. Although replacing all of that with Irish products still wouldn't cover a full loss of all Irish exports to the UK, growth in sales to China (our second biggest market) will ease that pain.

Same for French winemakers. If they lose the British market, where do they turn?

There will always be a market for French wine in the UK, even with WTO tariff rates. With the amount of Chinese money flowing into Bordeaux over recent years (they own more than 140 of the major chateaux), the UK, although still the second largest market, is becoming less significant. Sales to China increased 25% in 2016, to just below the level of sales to the UK. Chinese consumption of mid range wine (a segment dominated by the French producers) is showing double digit growth year on year. Sales to their primary market, the US continue to rise as well. I think they'll be OK.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Basically the DUP failed the people of NI by A) voting leave & B) opposing the sweet deal offered to NI. What will the NI farmers make of it all as EU subsidies shut off & now the threat of no market access - I'm hoping they show their dissatisfaction at the ballot box.

The Ulster farmers association welcoming the deal made me think along those lines. I thought the UUP would see the chance to do a Lazarus by rowing in behind the farmers' leaders and isolating the DUP. But no. Clearly on touching base with their grass roots they assessed that this has become entirely polarised along sectarian lines and the reasoned arguments of the leaders of Ulster business and agriculture are completely trumped by the SV induced Orange card.
I have a confession to make. Having been born and reared as a NI nationalist I realise you only have to scratch me to find a rebel. I have fallen for SV's ruse which has of course been swallowed hook line and sinker by the DUP. At this stage I don't know what would depress me more, the backstop being binned or diluted to DUP satisfaction or Rangers winning the SPL Thankfully both look unlikely.

 

[Sophrosyne]

We're going to have a hard job finding new outlets for our agri-business products

In addition to what Leo has said above, don't forget about the trade deal the EU signed earlier this year with Japan, the world’s largest free trade agreement.

Tariffs on Irish beef exported to Japan could reduce from the current 38.5% down to 9% in addition to an expected increase in exports to that country of 125 million people.

If it leaves the UK as a third country, would not of course be party to that agreement.

 

[Sunny]

Tariffs on Irish beef exported to Japan could reduce from the current 38.5% down to 9% in addition to an expected increase in exports to that country of 125 million people.
.

But where are we going to find 125 million people to send them?!!! I could probably give them my wife if that helps....

 

[Sophrosyne]

But where are we going to find 125 million people to send them?!!! I could probably give them my wife if that helps....

I don't understand your point.

 

[odyssey06]

But where are we going to find 125 million people to send them?!!! I could probably give them my wife if that helps....

Aha. I see what you did there. I have a few colleagues who I would happily contribute to this worthy export initiative, not to mention most of the Oireachtas and the head of the FAI on a one-way fact finding mission.

 

[Betsy Og]

Seems this Kate Hoey imbecile has gone all 11th bonfire: “we didnt spend 30 years suffering IRA killings of soldiers and civilians in Northern Ireland to see a United Ireland imposed by a few jumped up EU bureaucrats and a complicit prime minister.”

Apart from being inaccurate it is wildly irresponsible, to Dr. Ian levels. From a Labour MP no less, jeez, not sure how much lower this whole thing is going to go.

 

[john luc]

it will go lower before it over

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

it will go lower before it over

It has just gone lower, much lower
Donal Tusk saying there is a special place in hell for Brexiteers. But much more worrying is our Teashop caught unawares laughing with Tusk and saying he would get a pasting by the British press but that he was dead right.

 

[dub_nerd]

Tusk and the Teashop doing their best to concede the high ground they had occupied. Eejits.

 

[Conan]

Aghhhh. How dare Tusk and our Taoiseach criticize the Brexiteers. The poor little dears. Rees-Mogg, Fox, Davies etc are such shrinking violets that they will be devestated by such harsh and horrible insults. After all we all know that the Brexiteers had a clear and simple plan for how the UK of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would exit the EU with a deal that the EU would be desperate to give them.
So clearly the EU and the Oirish should show more respect for the great UK in view of all they have done for us over the past 800 years.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Aghhhh. How dare Tusk and our Taoiseach criticize the Brexiteers. The poor little dears. Rees-Mogg, Fox, Davies etc are such shrinking violets that they will be devestated by such harsh and horrible insults. After all we all know that the Brexiteers had a clear and simple plan for how the UK of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would exit the EU with a deal that the EU would be desperate to give them.
So clearly the EU and the Oirish should show more respect for the great UK in view of all they have done for us over the past 800 years.

And the biggest losers in a no deal Brexit? Make that 801 years with the last year down to the Teashop.

 

[Conan]

Forgive me, I thought the British Government agreed to the deal, including the Backstop? So the UK negotiated a deal with 27 other countries (taking nearly 2 years), and now May wants to tear it up and start again (with 50 days to go).
So, we just cave in, allow the UK to renege on their promise or allow them to decide unilaterally to cancel the Backstop and then we end up with a hard Border in say two years. Yeah, that sounds like a good strategy? If the Taoiseach caved-in I can imagine the criticism he would be subjected to by the usual suspects.

 

[dub_nerd]

The British Government did not just agree to the deal, including the backstop -- they proposed it. This video from last week of EU deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand laying it on the line is well worth the investment of 15 minutes. Brexiteer MPs want to hide behind the fact that Theresa May did not have their backing in the negotiations. According to Sammy Wilson and other intransigents she now "has been given a mandate to change the backstop". Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Brady amendment to replace the backstop "with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border” was so embarrassingly content free that nobody on the UK side is even able to say what any of the alternative arrangements might be.

EU frustration with the UK's lack of good faith in negotiations is therefore entirely justified, imho. They have wasted two years arriving at the current shambles. Tusk is right that the Brexit hardliners were ideologues without a plan. That doesn't justify the use of language about a "special place in hell". This is diplomacy. The hardliners are not going to won over in any case. But what you risk doing is alienating those who might be wavering, but are affronted by such immoderate language. And we definitely don't need our Teashop to be a giggling schoolboy accomplice to it.