Bitcoin - steer clear or not?

[Fortune]

New investors are free to exit BTC at any time taking profits or losses.

How do they exit? Where does the money come from?

Ponzi schemes do not, cannot operate that way.

First line from the Wikipedia entry:

A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒnzi/, Italian: [ˈpontsi]) is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors.

Here is a (very) small sample of stocks over the last few weeks that have plummeted in price

A share in one of those companies confers ownership of a share of the company's net assets. A BTC confers ownership of what?


Anyone betting on these BTCs are purely speculating, gambling. There is no 'investment', no substantive strategy, no analysis, no determination of what drives the price.
Anyone advocating 'investing' in these BTCs has no
It is pure speculation based on an assumption of past performance. It is just handing your own money over to someone else in the hope that in the future someone else will hand over more money to you. At least with ETFs I determine my own input and exit.

 

[Fortune]

You have just provided a use case for bitcoin.

By repeating your unsubstantiated assertion?

 

[Fortune]

insurance against Armageddon

Yeah, electricity and distributed networking will survive Armageddon

 

[Sister Sara]

You keep banging on about "use" cases.

I dont. One of central criticisms of BTC is its use case. Opponents of BTC have routinely used this point to deride bitcoin - what can it be used for? There are several examples in this thread.

Along comes a poster and provides, unwittingly in my opinion, a use case (a hedge against fiat currencies) and I'm accused of "banging on" about use cases.

Of course it has perceived "use" cases for some folk, why else would they be paying $65k* per unit.

And therein lies the fault in your reasoning along with others - because you don't see a use case that therefore it has none.

I have a use case for BTC and it is to protect in some small part against the demise of the euro. In my opinion, the demise of the euro is inevitable as it is born out of a political construct that is sure to fragment, again.
I cannot say when, maybe not in my lifetime and I cannot say what impact it will have on the value of my BTC. But my small holding of BTC is there, rising in value year after year.

I could of course be wrong, but then again, I could be right. Either way, I have made some provision for the likely demise (in my opinion) of the euro.

You are free to disagree, free to disparage that view, but you can no longer say that BTC has no use case.

 

[Sister Sara]

By repeating your unsubstantiated assertion?

What unsubstantiated assertion? You have admitted that BTC provides the same utility as GBP, USD, CHF etc? Are you denying you have said this?

The difference between BTC and those currencies is that those currencies are issued by a central bank. The supply is determined by a third party out of your control.
The supply of BTC is fixed and the price of BTC is determined solely by the buyers and sellers in the market for BTC.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I have a use case for BTC and it is to protect in some small part against the demise of the euro.

So you use something which is very likely to demise to protect against something which you think will demise?

Doesn't make sense. If you are worried about the demise of the euro, then don't have any cash denominated in euro. Buy shares. Buy gold. Buy property.

 

[letitroll]

It's not.

Its certainly more anonymous than picking up a kidnapping ransom in a bag of cash from a train station and certainly way more anonymous than a KYC'd and AML'd bank account connected to the SWIFT system.....but you know that already....it's why its the default payment mechanism of criminals.

As I said - BTC defenders like to say that it isn't as anonymous as people think it is as some way to paper over the fact that BTCs other 'killer app' outside speculation is criminal activity......it's clearly more anonymous than solutions that pre-dated it or alternatives that exist today.....cause why would criminals writ large default to it today? Because clearly it provides MORE anonymity than cash, wire, SEPA.

Indeed a whole DeFi infrastructure exists to 'mix' your crypto to hide further the source of the loot-

Best Crypto Mixers of 2026

People who want to use cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have the impression that they are completely anonymous. However, it only appears that

101blockchains.com

Example-
"Whirlpool
Whirlpool is the crypto mixing tool you can access with the Samourai wallet, which focuses on privacy. The unique workings of Whirlpool make it one of the best Bitcoin mixers, allowing users to execute completely anonymous crypto transactions. Another notable feature of Whirlpool is that it charges a flat fee for mixing cryptocurrencies, irrespective of the amount you want to mix."

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

You are free to disagree, free to disparage that view, but you can no longer say that BTC has no use case.

This is going from the sublime...
I have listed 4 "use" cases, the most significant by far being the hope (expectation by some) of they too getting a windfall ticket to riches.
The use cases decide the price - that is tautological.
The question is how sustainable are those use cases.
As a medium of exchange would have been the most stable. If 95% of transactions in bitcoin were because it was the more convenient medium of exchange for say certain goods/services, as envisaged in the White Paper, that would underpin its longevity and one could legitimately talk of "adoption".
But when by far the main "use" driver of the price is the hope/expectation of windfall gains, IMHO that can't be sustained for very long.

 

[letitroll]

That's how ponzi schemes work, that is not how BTC works.

Agree - BTC is not a ponzi....it most closely resembles in my opinion a multi-level marketing scheme (MLM).....early/existing holders are rewarded based on increasing downstream sales (crypto people like to call it adoption like it was the rollout of the internet or something).

 

[letitroll]

Buy shares. Buy gold. Buy property.

Yep if your a true cassandra type (which many many BTC'ers are when you get down it) go buy some arable land and learn how to farm it......but thats just way too much work.....better to buy BTC and type about the end of the world on your laptop in your moms attic conversion while ordering spice bags from Just Eat and watching youtube videos about the impending euro/dollar/fiat system collapse while periodically checking the price of BTC on your phone

 

[Sister Sara]

So you use something which is very likely to demise to protect against something which you think will demise?

Doesn't make sense. If you are worried about the demise of the euro, then don't have any cash denominated in euro. Buy shares. Buy gold. Buy property

If I thought like that I would agree 100% with you Brendan. But I don't, so invariably having a different perspective.
I have shares, I have property. I don't have gold (well, not physical metal gold anyway).

The prospect of the demise of the euro is a very real prospect imo. It may never happen (I actually hope it doesnt) but I can envisage scenarios where it is a real prospect.
If it does demise I have no way of telling in what manner it may demise, what impact it will have. Perhaps it will be a seamless, agreed arrangements between nation states, perhaps it will be chaotic.

Having an option to store a very small portion of my net wealth outside of the central bank fiat monetary system is a brilliant idea imo. I think everyone should do similar. I still think bitcoin is in its infancy, others seem to think that every new high followed by a large fall is the signal for its impending demise.

 

[Fortune]

Along comes a poster and provides a use case (a hedge against fiat currencies)

I buy bitcoin in the event of the demise of the euro and the unknown consequences of how it may fail, or when it may fail.

Who could that be?

 

[Sister Sara]

better to buy BTC and type about the end of the world on your laptop in your moms attic conversion while ordering spice bags from Just Eat and watching youtube videos about the impending euro/dollar/fiat system collapse while periodically checking the price of BTC on your phone

It's almost as though you are too young to remember the actual existentential sovereign debt crisis of the euro just over a decade ago?

The euro was created as part of a long‑term plan for economic and monetary union, but within a decade of its existence Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy all faced severe financial instability.
Perhaps you missed the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Which apparently in no small part was a consequence of Ukraine President not implementing a political promise to align closer to the EU (and with it the eurozone)?
Perhaps you never heard of the two World Wars? That began in Europe? The Balkans conflict? The movement for Catalonia independence? Brexit?

I mean, this is recorded fact - you would have to sitting in your mams attic conversion ordering spice bags etc....not to have noticed, or not to have at least learned that as confident as you may be today in your currency, there are circumstances at play that are simply beyond your control that may seriously impact on that currency.

Isnt this why investors diversify? Buy shares, buy property, buy gold? In my case, I simply buy some bitcoin too.

I would recommend everyone should hold some. The price of btc is a near irrevelance at this stage. If I spend $5000 on btc at $120k and it falls to $60k, it is a 50% drop.
That's not different if I bought it $120 and it dropped to $50.
The obvious difference being the quantity of btc and that will only matter when, if, btc is used widely as a medium of exchange. If that should ever occur, best to have some of your own, imo.

 

[Fortune]

I'm not sure what you are saying other than providing a use a case for Bitcoin?

I am saying that your stated use for BTC has always had other options that provide that use and BTC doesn't provide anything new in that regard

 

[3CC]

I have a use case for BTC and it is to protect in some small part against the demise of the euro. In my opinion, the demise of the euro is inevitable as it is born out of a political construct that is sure to fragment, again.
I cannot say when, maybe not in my lifetime and I cannot say what impact it will have on the value of my BTC. But my small holding of BTC is there, rising in value year after year.

I am with you there Sara. I myself have invested a small holding in frozen oranges. A number of people that I trust and respect on the internet have reassured me that the sun cannot go on emitting all that energy forever and will burn out leaving the Earth a dark frozen ball of ice. I checked it out myself and the Law of Conservation of Energy means that it is definitely true.

So I have invested in frozen oranges. OK, it takes loads of energy to keep them frozen, but boy when the sun is gone, I'll be the one that is laughing then. Like you, I can't say when it will happen and it may not be in my lifetime, but when you think about it, it just makes sense.

As an incidental benefit, others have jumped on the train (more evidence that I am right) and the price of frozen oranges has started to increase which drew even more people in. To be honest, my initial reason for this was the warm fuzzy feeling of my descendants having a nice OJ for breakfast in post apocalypse Ireland, but now I am more drawn to the rising values year after year. If it's going up, it's got to be good - right.

I too have faced disparaging commentary from those who have yet to find the faith but I have been reading about this for ages and I know I am right. Keep the faith and don't be tricked by the opinions of well informed posters on AAM who have nothing to gain by convincing you are wrong.

 

[Fortune]

You have admitted that BTC provides the same utility as GBP, USD, CHF etc? Are you denying you have said this?

You said BTC protects you from the collapse of EUR. I stated that other assets already provide that protection. I did not admit anything, i simply repeated your assertion without refuting it.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Having an option to store a very small portion of my net wealth outside of the central bank fiat monetary system is a brilliant idea imo.

You are in a very comfortable position that a V.S.P. of your net wealth provides a meaningful safety net. Even as a duke I could not possibly make the same claim for myself.

 

[Sister Sara]

@3CC I will take that post in good jest!

It is the "Bitcoin will return to zero" arguement in reverse.

 

[Fortune]

The supply is determined by a third party out of your control.

Same with BTC

the price of BTC is determined solely by the buyers and sellers in the market for BTC.

Who do you think sets the price for fiat currencies?

 

[Sister Sara]

You said BTC protects you from the collapse of EUR

I didn't say it protects....I said it may protect. I have no way, nor you or anyone else, which way the wind will blow for the value of BTC, USD, GBP, share prices, price of property, etc.

I see no harm in having some of my net wealth outside of the centralised fiat currency system.