Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

tecate

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lol - you being enraged by the notion isn't going to stop developers from building a robust algorithmic stablecoin, Duke. :cool:
Likewise the mischaracterisations are not going to make a blind bit of difference.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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@tecate a trivia for you. Do you realise that on no less than 8 threads on just the first page of this forum you have the last word, well temporarily down to 7. Just saying.
 

tecate

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@tecate a trivia for you. Do you realise that on no less than 8 threads on just the first page of this forum you have the last word, well temporarily down to 7. Just saying.
This is something that you are fixated on - not me. I've never once mentioned anything about any 'last word'. It's a discussion board - my understanding is, if you have something to post, post it. If you don't, then don't.
 

Firefly

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This is something that you are fixated on - not me. I've never once mentioned anything about any 'last word'. It's a discussion board - my understanding is, if you have something to post, post it. If you don't, then don't.
That would be Q.E.D. in my book ;)
 

DazedInPontoon

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As someone previously said the bitcoin threads will be very interesting to look back on in the future for one reason or another. It's nice to have some 'mile markers'

Today it's at $23k. Bitcoin recently reached the point of 91% of the eventual 21m being in circulation. Supply will increase by 1.76% over the next year. The next halving is just over 1.5 years away, estimated to be April 20, 2024.

I was surprised by the depths of the lows in the summer, but the news that Tesla sold almost a billion $ worth on top of the forced liquidations by the struggling or failing businesses (celsius, 3AC, etc) explains it.

Bitcoin stopped going down (so far!) 7 weeks ago on 18th of June at around $16.75k
 

Duke of Marmalade

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As someone previously said the bitcoin threads will be very interesting to look back on in the future for one reason or another. It's nice to have some 'mile markers'

Today it's at $23k. Bitcoin recently reached the point of 91% of the eventual 21m being in circulation. Supply will increase by 1.76% over the next year. The next halving is just over 1.5 years away, estimated to be April 20, 2024.

I was surprised by the depths of the lows in the summer, but the news that Tesla sold almost a billion $ worth on top of the forced liquidations by the struggling or failing businesses (celsius, 3AC, etc) explains it.

Bitcoin stopped going down (so far!) 7 weeks ago on 18th of June at around $16.75k
I'll admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at bitcoin's bounce; I hope it is of the dead cat variety.
Without wishing to rehash the previous 39 pages, I still believe the "supply/demand" curve is purely driven by the current balance of speculation as to where the price will go. Nothing else behaves like this. Yes there are speculators in any Forex market but supply/demand is dominated by utility considerations. Come on @tecate get that number back to 8 ;)
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Why though? Why always such strong disappointment at bitcoins gains. I get that you dont believe in it etc etc but I dont get the strong opposition all the time.
Yep Arthur, I am a bit annoyed with myself that I have developed an emotional attachment to the demise of bitcoin. It is not resentment that I missed the boat, though I certainly did. For some reason the sheer nonsense of it and its 10,000 kopy-kats and the rubbish spoken by the likes of Saylor really gets up my nose. Nothing against @tecate ; jostling with him/her is one of the bright spots in this madness.
 

tecate

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I'll admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at bitcoin's bounce; I hope it is of the dead cat variety.
This sounds familiar. Didn't you previously admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at Bitcoin's recovery from its 2018 low?
Nothing else behaves like this.

You are sooo right and you don't even realise it! :D

Why though? Why always such strong disappointment at bitcoins gains. . . . I dont get the strong opposition all the time.
LINK
I have developed an emotional attachment to the demise of bitcoin.
@ArthurMcB o_O Is this your first intervention? I don't know much about this sort of stuff but I think this is Step 1 on Duke's road to recovery? Amirite? You're doing Gods work, Arthur - please continue.
 

tecate

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So Blackrock, the world's biggest money manager with $10 trillion under management - is now in.

This comes a year after Blackrock - 2nd largest institutional investor in Tesla - is believed to have pressured Musk to back down on Bitcoin on ESG grounds. Today, the World Economic Forum is commending Blackrock for "aspiring to ESG principles" while Blackrock says Bitcoin is now fine because "greater transparency" is being brought to sustainable energy usage in Bitcoin mining.:rolleyes:


The SEC has refused to approve a Bitcoin ETF - forcing people in TradFi to use a futures product where they're paying through the nose on fees OR buy shares in Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) where they're finding their shares are underwater and trading at a major discount to Bitcoin spot price. With Blackrock now involved, no doubt there will be an ETF within 6 months.

Of course, they're not alone - the other filthy animals are also jumping in - Charles Schwab


All of that news comes on the same day as this:

JPMorgan traders found guilty of manipulating gold market for years


The bigger money seems to be arriving but it will come with a new set of risks and headaches. Hopefully Bitcoin's auditability will save it from being captured like gold has been.
 
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DazedInPontoon

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The bigger money seems to be arriving but it will come with a new set of risks and headaches. Hopefully Bitcoin's auditability will save it from being captured like gold has been.
It's not just the auditability, though that is great, it's that it's easier to take 'physical' delivery so ultimately there should less reliance on trusting third party custodians, even if it's via some hybrid approach like multi-sig. The things that should allow bitcoin to be better here:

1) Supply is transparent. We have no factual data on how much gold exists (both above and below ground) only estimates, and even if we did we'd have no way of verifying it ourselves.
2) Easier to take delivery of bitcoin than gold
3) Custodians can release mathematical proof of the bitcoin they hold, making on-going auditing trivial.
4) Multi-sig can reduce the dependence on custodians, while still providing some of the benefit.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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This is well worth a read for anyone with an interest or view on Bitcoin

Good read indeed, but you should have warned me to have a packet of peanuts - it's long:(
Best quote:
Intelligencer said:
Crypto is a game of creating virtual fortunes out of thin air and convincing other humans with traditional forms of money that those virtual fortunes deserve to be real-world ones.
 

tecate

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The Three Arrows Capital (3AC) saga is being likened to the implosion of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) back in the day. Here's a good analysis that draws parrallels between those two debacles - LINK.

That leverage-induced disaster came and went - and bond markets still existed afterwards. This 3AC leveraged crap show as it relates to Bitcoin will be the very same. The integrity of decentralised Bitcoin is beyond reproach. The integrity of centralised actors like 3AC is not. Likewise for the centralized crypto lenders who had 3AC as their primary client and have subsequently gone bust.

Imagine how fast the sector corrects itself. It has already dealt with the 3AC saga in a matter of a few short months. LTCM involved a bailout. There are no bailouts in crypto. Leverage is the devil - but people are inherently greedy so no doubt it will return again eventually. I think that it's also likely that there will be some semblance of risk management put in place and the sector will be more resilient moving on from this.
 
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