Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

Status
Not open for further replies.
tecate said:
Before Christmas you said that the btc price should be so much higher if monetary expansion was a driver. Now its much higher and you're still not happy. Gold is much higher over the last 18 months and you figure that bitcoin shouldn't outperform it even though its a much younger asset that is coming of age. Also, there has been some limited move from gold directly to bitcoin in recent weeks.
Click to expand...
I'm just trying to get my head around the timing of the latest surge. Several things at play here.
Institutional involvement
The sound of printing machines in Fort Worth but that noise is not new and why is gold not benefiting, that's what puzzles me
Spoofing by so called respected names like JP Morgan targeting $146k (or is it $400k, they keep changing their minds which is perfectly understandable for something that moves 20% per day)
Manipulation by tether whales
Knock on FOMO of retail investors but also fund managers
 
@dukey: That's supply that has to go on to the market to cover significant mining costs. You can try all you like to contrive it not to be significant when that supply is cut in half. It's simple math.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
How so called experts can argue that a halving of the new coin supply has any material impact on the supply/demand dynamic is really telling.
Click to expand...


Duke, with respect , you are positively flip-flopping from one perspective to next.

The halving occurred last May.

You seem to identify 1K new coins minted in out of a total 3m coins traded in last 24hrs.
I have to say 3m coins being traded in 24hrs, if accurate, is a phenomenal amount. As only 1k of these can be new coins, then it suggests heavy selling on the part of holders. This goes some way to explaining the 25%+ price pull back.
 
WolfeTone said:
Duke, with respect , you are positively flip-flopping from one perspective to next.

The halving occurred last May.
Click to expand...
My current flip (or is it flop) is to try and understand why now this remarkable price action. Coindesk asked their experts the same question and one of them mentioned the halving. In fact my dear theo so did you.
theo answering my question about recent price action in #18 said:
Also, there was the halving of the block reward in March this year.
Click to expand...
BTW March or May? it is not important.
You seem to identify 1K new coins minted in out of a total 3m coins traded in last 24hrs.
I have to say 3m coins being traded in 24hrs, if accurate, is a phenomenal amount. As only 1k of these can be new coins, then it suggests heavy selling on the part of holders. This goes some way to explaining the 25%+ price pull back.
Click to expand...
Check my numbers, maybe I have the decimal point in the wrong place but Coindesk says trade in the last 24h was $90bn which I think is about 3,000 coins. Checking historically say over the last 2 years this is about double normal but even that is astonishingly high. By comparison:
There are currently 1,127,467,028 Ryanair shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 641,279 shares.
Click to expand...
So that's less than 1 per mil for a normal stock. Admittedly that other mind blowing phenomenon Tesla has very high turnover though not quite in the same league as bitcoin.
I did find a website which claimed that the mainstream reported volumes of bitcoin is fake news. Their figure for the last 24h is around $20bn.
 
Last edited:
A stat that's relevant and that someone may know is the number of coins actually deposited on the exchanges. For example if coinbase has 1k coin volume traded in a day but only has 100 coins deposited, we know the same coins were bought and sold multiple times in the day.

I saw recently some numbers on net coin in/out-flow to exchanges, and it was showing that there has been a net outflow recently, i.e. that there are less coins on exchanges in total. I can't remember what exchanges it related to, and I don't have a link sorry. Maybe someone else does?
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
In fact my dear theo so did you.
Click to expand...

Ok Duke, perhaps I am misconstruing your point?
The halving last May reduced the supply of new bitcoin onto the market. If demand for bitcoin, since May, is also increasing at the same time as a reducing new supply its not hard to see prices increasing.
If that new demand is significant (institutional hedge against inflation) then a surge is understandable, to me, anyway.

However, if there is a significant trading of 3m coins as of the last 24hrs, then, in that 24hr period, the newly mined 1k coins will be of little significance to the price in that 24hr period.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Good, we agree. Not @tecate.
Click to expand...

Duke, with respect, if Irish housing stock is 1m, and there are 40,000 new units each year with 40,000 buyers all well and good.
Cut the supply to 20,000 and increase the demand to 70,000 buyers then we all know what happens.
If however, a wave of 250,000 units of the existing 1m stock comes onto the market for sale in a very short period, then supply of 20,000 new units will be of little significance in supporting the price, despite the presence of 70,000 buyers.
 
Last edited:
WolfeTone said:
Duke, with respect, if Irish housing stock is 1m, and there are 40,000 new units each year with 40,000 buyers all well and good.
Cut the supply to 20,000 and increase the demand to 70,000 buyers then we all know what happens.
If however, a wave of 250,000 units of the existing 1m stock comes onto the market for sale in a very short period, then supply of 20,000 new units will be of little significance in supporting the price, despite the presence of 70,000 buyers.
Click to expand...
theo I think we all understand how supply and demand works. In the last 24 hours 3 million bitcoins changed hands. Somewhere in there possibly all 930 shiny new bitcoins were sold. I thought we agreed that this had not one iota of contribution to the 25% fall in price. @tecate disagrees though s/he seems to think I am misrepresenting their use of the term "I disagree".
I am not reopening the silly hype about the halving but it is telling (again) that "experts" have so got that hype in their veins that they quote it as a contributory factor in the recent price action when from every angle it is totally irrelevant.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@tecate disagrees though s/he seems to think I am misrepresenting their use of the term "I disagree".
Click to expand...
Let me help you out there your Dukeness. I'm correcting you on the bs you added (post =91). It should just read "tecate said" - not that other nonsense. I'm not getting dragged in to your cherry picking of current volume - taking NO heed of what were regular volumes pre halving. It's very simple. There was X amount that had to be sold every day - now there's half of that amount that has to be sold. That is before we look at ordinary every day volumes.
Duke of Marmalade said:
Yep, that tallies with the volume in the last 24 hours. That is a turnover of 1 in 6 bitcoins per 24h. Compare with Ryanair shares 1 in 1,000 turnover in 24h.
Click to expand...
See above.
 
The below chart shows daily volume of c. $40bn before the halving. And that was at a lower price representing around 4 million coins being traded per day. The halving reduced this by 1,000 per day, assuming that miners dump their coins as soon as they mine them, which I certainly wouldn't blame them for, not for them the hype of a future price tag of $146k.
5230
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I think we all understand how supply and demand works.
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure Duke. Your question appears to be to try understand the bitcoin halving last May with regard to its

a) recent price surge over the last six months, and
b) its price fall over the last 24hrs

in both instances you appear to suggest that the halving is insignificant?

I would suggest, that in a) it is significant, and in b) not so significant.
 
WolfeTone said:
I'm not so sure Duke. Your question appears to be to try understand the bitcoin halving last May with regard to its

a) recent price surge over the last six months, and
b) its price fall over the last 24hrs

in both instances you appear to suggest that the halving is insignificant?

I would suggest, that in a) it is significant, and in b) not so significant.
Click to expand...
Let's agree to disagree. In my book 1 in 3,000 is insignificant but I accept that is a subjective call.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top