"Bitcoin could be fuelling division of society"

It's a bit of a strange article.
Non-holders and latecomers must understand that "they have compelling reasons to oppose Bitcoin and advocate for legislation against it."
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Couldn't one make the same point about any sort of investment? Non-investors are left out of the gains and become poorer also.
 
This is such a load of biased agenda nonsense being vomited out by ECB to protect the precious Fiat Euro et al (as pointed out above).

"Bindseil and Schaaf argue that Bitcoin's impact should not be viewed as merely a speculative bubble but as a mechanism that actively impoverishes non-holders and latecomers, undermining social cohesion and potentially threatening democracy."

Not a mention of fiat printing for comparison.
 
The Bitcoin lobby are really wallowing in it - convincing themselves that they have a big gotcha on their arch enemy the ECB and feeding it out to the gullible cult who are lapping it up. The "critiques" by these ever so reasonable and balanced Bitcoin apologists would embarrass The Donald himself.
Below is an abstract of what the ECB experts were actually doing. They were contemplating as a thought experiment what would the world look like if Bitcoin actually did rise inexorably say to over $million as its whale promoters promise. It is a $trillion of BOHA at the moment - these Oracles would have you believe it will go to $20trillion and beyond.
I am no economist but instinctively I think that would have serious socio-economic effects. Certainly if the BOHA imploded and $20trillion of perceived "wealth" evaporated that would be the equivalent of a 40% fall in the US stockmarket and it would be almost overnight and even cultists accept it is a non negligible possibility. I think that could have implications for folk like me, in fact I think the authors should maybe have explored that avenue. Maybe they did as the only source I have are the critiques by the Bitcoin evangelists and the below Abstract from the authors.
It is a valuable insight to pose the question "heck what if this nonsense really does go stratospheric?".
In fact, this is a timely warning. Those who have the responsibility to protect our economy and our monetary system will take action before it gets escape velocity.
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I don't really get the argument.

I can understand that a late-comer to BTC who buys at $100,000 and sees it falling to zero will be impoverished.

But how am I as a non-holder impoverished?

If Bigger Fool 145 loses $100,000, surely Bigger Fool 144 gains.

Unless it's like Albania, where the collapse of a widely held pyramid scheme causes massive social unrest and calls for government compensation.

So I could be impoverished bailing out the losses of the late entrants.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I don't really get the argument.

I can understand that a late-comer to BTC who buys at $100,000 and sees it falling to zero will be impoverished.

But how am I as a non-holder impoverished?

If Bigger Fool 145 loses $100,000, surely Bigger Fool 144 gains.

Unless it's like Albania, where the collapse of a widely held pyramid scheme causes massive social unrest and calls for government compensation.

So I could be impoverished bailing out the losses of the late entrants.

Brendan
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The paper is looking at what happens if the price goes up constantly. In that case, the wealth of holders (particularly early adopters) would increase at a greater rate than those who have no bitcoin. In this scenario, you would likely become impoverished as the weather of bitcoin investors fuels inflation that you cannot keep up with.

Of course, there's no way this can happen in reality so you've nothing to worry about.
 
So, if BTC never collapses, all the BTC owners will be wealthier than I am.

But I won't be impoverished.

But if all these guys feel wealthy, they will start spending and fuelling inflation. But what will they be spending? BTC?
 
Brendan Burgess said:
So, if BTC never collapses, all the BTC owners will be wealthier than I am.

But I won't be impoverished.

But if all these guys feel wealthy, they will start spending and fuelling inflation. But what will they be spending? BTC?
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It seems like a thought experiment by some academics who needed to publish something. It's relying on too many 'ifs'. The only way it could happen is if there's always someone willing to buy BTC as the price constantly rises. There's no way that could keep happening.
 
@Brendan Burgess When I read @DazedInPontoon's introduction of this topic my reaction was "OMG the ECB guys have lost the plot". But I was immediately suspicious that this was a twisted synopsis, though I give DIP the benefit that his only source was the stampede of "gotcha" critiques from cultist outlets. When I Googled that was all I could find except for that Abstract. What the ECB guys were recognising is that there is a general complacency amongst sensible folk that this Bitcoin madness only effects those who get involved, a complacency that I shared. But for the first time I now see that this madness is actually a threat to our economic paradigm and therefore a threat to me. If there are millions of people who perceive that they are holding the equivalent of 40% of the US stockmarket worth of BOHA - then the complacency would be seriously unjustified. I agree with you that the points you make seem valid but beware of fake news- is this what they really said or is it being deliberately misinterpreted. Can anybody source the actual ECB report?
 
DazedInPontoon said:
why? what's the upper bound for bitcoin?
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Of course nobody knows.

Some say itll go to zero. Some say it wil increase to 500k. Who knows? I dont.

I dont understand bitcoin but thats my problem.

I have a very open mind to it though and am willing to be persuaded either way. But from reading all the posts about it im not persuaded either way by any of you so ill keep watching and try to make an informed view.

Do i regret not buying btc a few yrs ago? Of course.

Am i keen to buy some now? No chance as it could very well be a load of horse manure.
 
Fortune said:
Has the price of BTC ever constantly risen? Of it were to constantly rise, regardless of the performance of any other investment, how would anyone afford to buy BTC?
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It would only rise because they can afford to buy it. And they would afford to buy at ever increasing prices because wages, and wealth (in nominal terms) rise due to inflation, and inflation goes on forever.
 
DazedInPontoon said:
It would only rise because they can afford to buy it. And they would afford to buy at ever increasing prices because wages, and wealth (in nominal terms) rise due to inflation, and inflation goes on forever.
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Im not sure about this. The rate of increase for btc has far outpaced wages and inflation.
 
I am about half way through the ECB paper. Fascinating read. I will report back as necessary but for the moment what about this gem? The Donald talking at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July this year.
The Donald said:
“In just 15 years, Bitcoin has gone from merely an idea posted anonymously on an internet message board to being the ninth most valuable asset anywhere in the world. … It's already bigger than Exxon Mobil. Soon it will be surpassing the entire market cap of silver. … One day it probably will overtake gold… …bitcoin and crypto will skyrocket like never before, even beyond your expectations… Because when America is prospering, bitcoin is soaring, and it will go up with it…. During my four years in office, bitcoin surged by 3,900%, from $898 the day I took office to $35,900 the day I left… Now, compare that to just after three and a half years of Biden and Harris adjusted for inflation, bitcoin is up 50% now 50% sounds good, but not when you're comparing it to almost 4,000% right?
… if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future, we'll keep 100… This will serve, in effect, as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile. … … I take steps to transform that vast wealth into a permanent national asset to benefit all Americans. … You are the modern-day Edisons and Wright brothers and Carnegies and Henry Fords, and what you do in your lifetime stands a chance to outlive us all and inspire humanity for generations to come.”
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