Assessment of Financial Goals with €2m property and 955k Debt

fonduster

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Hi Guys, A few years ago I created a thread in money makeover section and my situation has changed a good bit since then. I was hoping to pick your brain to see what you think of my situation - https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threads/buy-to-let-mortgage-advice.197693/#post-1461746

Gross Income - Monthly - Yearly
PAYE - 2750 – 33,000*
Rental 1 – 1,100 – 13,200
Rental 2 – 1,075 – 12,900
Rental 3 – 1,500 – 18,000
Rental 4 – 1,400 – 16,800
Rental 5 – 1,220 – 14,640
Rental 6 – 1,350 – 16,200
Rental 7 – 1,350 – 16,200
Rental 8 – 1,350 – 16,200
Total – 13,095 – 157,140


*exclusive of annual bonus of about 2,000 and BIK health insurance of 230e a month.


Partner PAYE - 1500 – 18,000


Current pension pot – 2,500
Annual Pension contribution – 6,500 +2,300(company contribution) = 8,800

upload_2019-3-1_15-54-38.png

Other Info:
Age: 29/28
I am working on increasing my own PAYE and potentially might be at about 40k in the next 2-3 years.


Generally speaking, my rentals are nearly all close to market rate. At a push I might be able to get an extra 500 per month across all of them but will not be increasing them unless a tenant leaves.


In general are you:
saving

Rough estimate of value of home – 300,000
Amount outstanding on your mortgage: 0

Other borrowings – car loans/personal loans etc - 0

Savings and investments: 10,000


The majority of these are interest only for another 3 years with the exception of rental 3.




Ages of children: n/a. When we do hopefully have children, there is a strong likely hood that my partner would go to part time reducing our wages and affordability.

Life insurance: Yes – Term life insurance for 30 years @700k


Upcoming large expenses:

1-3 Years – Marriage – circa 20k.
3-5 Years – Kids
3-5 Years – Family Car – circa 10-15k
5-8 Years – Family Home – circa 500k


Financial saving objectives:

EOY 2026 having savings of circa 160k @20k per year

EOY 2028 Pension Pot of circa 80k @4pc growth




I hope I was clear with my financial background. Let me know if any of it is unclear.



What specific question do you have or what issues are of concern to you?



1)Do you think my financial objective and upcoming large expenses are realistic and attainable and is 4pc growth for a pension too high or too low?


2) What are your thoughts on my cashflow, sustainability of debt level etc as rents are at all time highs and wont be like this forever.


3) Over the past few years, I have let my pension and saving go by the way side as I have been aggressively paying down my debt to get the majority of them to 50pc ltv. Right now. My main goal for the future is to save for our final home where it will be costing circa 500k. I would be hoping to refinance my existing portfolio along with saving of circa 160k to buy this final home without selling any of them including my current PPR which I would be hoping to turn into another rental. My current PPR has 0 Debt and could fetch current rent of circa 1500.My intention would be to maximise debt on rentals and minimize debt on PPR in the future to be as tax efficient as possible.


4)My main long term goal is prepping to buy our final home, with this in mind, another option im not too sure if I should go with is to overpay Rental 5 by 30k to bring it down to ltv of 50pc. This would enable me to have a gross saving of 1,800 per year or over 5 years a saving of 9k. Net saving of circa 4.5k is a lot however im not sure if im better leaving this money in my bank account as 30k would be a big dent in my savings for the next 5-8years.


5)I would like to invest in the stock market as well. This will not be happening in the near future as I do feel like I would be entering the market too late with current rates at all time highs. Its just food for thought for something I would like to do. If I was American, I would go with S&P500 or Wrath IRA and leave it there however the complexity of tax in Ireland puts me off them. I was considering investing around 1k per stock and just spreading my purchases across the biggest companies. It would be like a mini s&p 500 but without the extra complexity of having to deal with deemed disposal. – just wondering what peoples thoughts would be on this and what would you recommend for a lay investor. Considering that i will continue to invest in my pension which is invested into stocks and shares, would you also invest in them outside your pension also?


6) Thoughts on my overall financial position.
 

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You have an income of €55k

You have €2m of property with €1m of mortgages.

You are doing very well.

But an unexpected outcome like a 50% fall in property prices would wipe out your wealth. You should not be taking this risk.

You have taken huge risks in the past and they have paid off. Take some of your cash off the table.

As a very minimum, you should not be holding onto your family home as an investment.

So when you are ready to buy a new home
1) Sell your family home ahead of time so that you have €300k cash to play with
2) Sell one or two of the other properties so that you are actually buying your new home with cash.

3)
Current pension pot – 2,500
Annual Pension contribution – 6,500 +2,300(company contribution) = 8,800

Are you saying that you have only €2,500 in the pot?

You should be maxing your pension - it's by far the most tax-efficient way of saving for the long term.

4) You should be getting your exposure to equities via the pension fund. No need to buy shares directly.
 
One thing to watch out for. When the interest only periods end, will you be able to afford the full repayments?

What if a few tenants go rogue?

Your affairs are quite complex and it's easy to make a mistake. If you go into arrears, even temporarily, your credit record will be damaged and you can forget about borrowing to buy a home.

But even with a good credit record, a lender will be wary of lending you 10 times your income to buy a home.

So get yourself into a good cash position so that you can be ready to buy when the opportunity arises.

Brendan
 
I spent a lot in 2018 in renovations and i still estimate i had a gross income(income less current expenses and capital allowances) of circa 72k. This should hopefully increase this year with less work to be done.This is a simplistic view i know but just to give you an idea.

You are right, with my current portfolio. It will either do really well or could plummet. This is why i am trying to prepare myself for the next recession as best as possible either by over paying my debt or by building up a saving cushion to protect me.

My current PPR has some family history to it so more than likely will not sell.
To get to where i am now, i did sell one of my previous properties to get liquid cash. I would prefer to try and avoid selling again if i can in the future.

Apologies if my pension aspect wasnt clear. I currently have about 2.5k in it. I had stopped contributing to it for a few years to send the money towards my mortgage overpayments and renovations. Once the dust had settled, i am now re-evaluating my finances to see what i can do. Im Currently trying to fix this by contributing about 20pc along with 7pc company contribution to increase this as much as possible.

I have set my pension scheme to 50pc passive equity fund along with another 40pc in a moderate growth fund which also has 50pc equity with a mix of bonds, alternatives etc balancing out the moderate fund. The remaining 10pc is split between actively managed high risk fund and bonds. In that case, is it more simplistic to continue investing 20pc in my pension that will allow me to invest in shares, and then with my cash outside my pension to just save it and or pay down debt.

What are your thoughts on #4 for overpaying one of my rentals?
 
Situations can change for sure. In relation to interest only payments, I should be able to cover the repayments, it is one of the main reasons i have over paid the majority of my loans during the current interest only period to get my debt and interest rate down to a more affordable level.

My intention if the situation remains the same and no recession is come time for buying my final PPR, i would refinance the entire portfolio with another interest only period. Currently ICS have a 15 year interest only with another 20 year payment period. At that stage when i would be looking into something like this, i would have been on standard payments across all my properties for at least 3 years so would have paid the debt down another few thousand. Who know what will happen in 5+ years though so this product might now even be available.
 
Will you be in trouble with your cashflow when the mortgages go to full repayment?

Income 13,095
Repayments 9,800 (my estimate)
Tax 4,833 (income 13,095 less int 3,428 gives profit 9,667 taxed at 50%)

Monthly shortfall 1,538

Give or take rent increases voids, other expenses, etc.
 
But an unexpected outcome like a 50% fall in property prices would wipe out your wealth. You should not be taking this risk.

This is not the risk the OP faces. What difference does it make if property prices fall.

The risk he does face is that he will be unable to cashflow his loans when the IO period ends.
 
Will you be in trouble with your cashflow when the mortgages go to full repayment?

Income 13,095
Repayments 9,800 (my estimate)
Tax 4,833 (income 13,095 less int 3,428 gives profit 9,667 taxed at 50%)

Monthly shortfall 1,538

Give or take rent increases voids, other expenses, etc.


Correct me if im wrong but i believe my interest rate will drop to 4.4 once im off interest only. The current variable rate with my provider is 4.4pc for ltv 50pc.

Property - Debt - Monthly payment
Rental 1 - 110k - 690
Rental 2 - 95k - 596
Rental 3 - 175k - 1042
Rental 4 - 120k - 753
Rental 5 - 140k - 913
Rental 6 - 110k -690
Rental 7 - 120k - 753
Rental 8 - 85k - 534
Total = 5971
 
This is not the risk the OP faces. What difference does it make if property prices fall.

The risk he does face is that he will be unable to cashflow his loans when the IO period ends.

Yep exactly, cashflow is key for me. Thats why im trying to guage if i should over pay Rental 5 to get my cashflow down another 150 a month. Im not sure if i can get the full over payment dont this year based on my estimated tax bill and prelim of 40k this year.

Rental 3 is part of the capital gain exemption which will expire for me in 2020 however i would prefer to keep it if possible. My end game is to keep as many as possible where i wont sell them and use them in my pension years and eventually pass them to my children.
 
This is not the risk the OP faces. What difference does it make if property prices fall.

The risk he does face is that he will be unable to cashflow his loans when the IO period ends.

Good point.

But the two are connected.

If prices fall and he has cash flow problems he is in deep trouble.

If he gets into cash flow problems but still has plenty of equity, he can solve them by selling a property or two.

So if he sells a few properties now while he has plenty of equity, he will solve both problems.

But from his follow on answers, it looks like he has no intention of reducing his exposure.

Brendan
 
Well why don't you organise it so that some of your loans qualify for this rate?
Right now when it is on IO, the rate is 4.5 for an ltv of 50pc. The advertised variable rate is 4.4 if you go for a standard mortgage. When i took out the mortgage i never enquired about what rate i will be charged at the end of the IO as they were not at an ltv of 50pc at that point. I assume they will go to the advertised variable rate once IO ends.
 
Unfortunate you didn't get any tracker rates when you took out your mortgages

But aside from that it looks like you are well positioned. Fair play for getting the loans down.
 
Hello,

I'd definitely cash in on some of the properties ... imho the property market is close to having peaked, residential lending rates are not going to go much lower, legislators are not going to make life any easier for landlords, and may well seek to apply other taxes or pressure on them.

You've a serious concentration risk, with regards to the level of your wealth tied up in property.
 
Hello,

legislators are not going to make life any easier for landlords, and may well seek to apply other taxes or pressure on them

I doubt it very much, seeing as landlords are doing a lot of what the goverment should be doing and the persons property portfolio as far as I can see from the rent he's getting, is split between apartments and houses. That to me is a positive, apartments haven't realised the same price increases as houses.
 
I remember the old thread interesting the advice back then and how it has changed in a few years,
 
I remember the old thread interesting the advice back then and how it has changed in a few years,
The circumstances are completely different.

OP had 3 properties, completely debt free, and he was proposing purchasing 2 properties with 20% gearing.

He now has 9 properties, and 1m of debt.

There'd be something wrong if he was getting the same advice!
 
my interest once im off interest only.


Total = 5971

Apologies I based my estimate of the repayments on the property values rather than the loan amounts

Income 13,095
Repayments 5,971 (revised)
Tax 4,956 (income 13,095 less int 3,183 gives profit 9,912 taxed at 50%)

Monthly surplus 2,168
 
Just to get back to my questions:
1)Based on my upcoming expenses and my cashflow, do you think im too unrealistic of also trying to save about 20k per year.
2)What is a realistic growth of a pension fund, i know it can vary depending on what funds you put your money in however based on my age, i am investing in mainly equities and somewhat "risky"funds. Would 3/4/5/6pc be more realistic.
3)Based on peoples thoughts so far, it sounds like my debt level may not be sustainable, just looking for more peoples opinions on this
4)From talking to several ll, it is common to refinance properties and i would again be hoping to do this 1-3 years after IO expires. Any thoughts and recommendations on this. I chose IO not to push out my problems but to give me more flexibility and at the same time at a minimum pay what i would be paying if it wasnt IO and or more if i can afford it.
5) This is one of the main topics that is close on my horizon. Would you over pay Rental 5 by 30k to have a net saving of 75pm or 150gross in extra cashflow pm. By the time i try and buy my final PPR, i would have at least a net saving of 5+k howver i would have 25k less saved for a deposit - just looking for some thoughts on this.
6) Im also looking for other peoples knowledge and experience during the bad times and how cashflow impacted them. I was debt free in the last recession and although i saw rents decrease, it didnt impact as much as others.
 
If it was me I'd look to greatly reduce by debt levels by selling off a few of the properties. You could sell four of them and be just about debt free, with good income and no risk. You took a gamble, it paid off, now take your profit before your run ends.
 
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