Key Post Arrears data from individual banks

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Summary of these figures. Read down through the thread to see where these figures come from.

Last updated June 2012

% of home loans in arrears over 90 days at 31 Dec 2011

|Accounts|Balances|SVR as of 31 Dec
National Irish Bank |3%|3%|4.5%
AIB | 5% |6.5%|3.05%
Bank of Ireland| 6%|7.4% |4%
[broken link removed]|9.2%|12.3%|
PTSB |12.1%|14.5%|6.1%
EBS |12.5%|16.6%|4.8%
The Central Bank tells us the number of accounts in arrears and the balances outstanding.
The percentage of the book in arrears is higher than the percentage of the accounts in arrears. This is because smaller accounts are less likely to be in arrears.

The PTSB Annual Report tells us both the number of cases over 90 days and the % of the book over 90 says.
AIB and BoI tells us only what % of the book is outstanding. I have estimated the accounts for AIB and BoI using the same proportion as the Central Bank's figures.
 
AIB mortgage arrears at just over 4%

According to the [broken link removed]
Allied Irish Banks has said that just over 4 per cent of its customers with mortgages are in arrears for more than 90 days.
This compares to just over 8 per cent among all lenders, according to Central Bank figures released in September.
...
The head of AIB's home mortgage business Jim O'Keeffe told Newstalk radio this morning the bank had a lower rate of arrears than many of its competitors.


'If we look at the September industry figures published at that point, there were 8.1 per cent of customers more than 90 days in arrears; AIB's figure isn't running at that level. Our numbers in terms of that comparison are just over 4 per cent at that point."
Click to expand...
So how can AIB's arrears be only half the average?

The figures might reflect the underlying reality. AIB's book is a lot better than Bank of Ireland and PTSB because they were less reckless in their lending and/or better in their credit control. It does seem that the Irish banks were less reckless than Bank of Scotland and First Active. But were they less reckless than Banks of Ireland?

Another possibility is that because AIB's SVR is so much lower than the others, their arrears are actually lower.

Here are the figures from the stress testing.
Central Bank three-year projected losses
Owner Occupied only (i.e. excluding buy to let)
Stress test scenario (vs. base scenario)

AIB|8.9%
EBS|8.3%
ILP|8.2%
BoI|5.3%
This suggests that AIB is the worst of the 4 main lenders and not the best. Of course, these figures might be wrong as well.

My own guess is that AIB are probably more flexible in rescheduling loans and capitalizing arrears. If they switch someone to interest only before they go into arrears, they will not become an arrears statistic. If they capitalize the arrears, they will leave the statistics.

To make a full comparison, we would need to get AIB's total figures for arrears and rescheduled.

My gut feeling is that the underlying figures for AIB are better due to the very low SVRs and slightly less reckless lending initially.

Brendan
 
NIB

Arrears of 90 days or more rose to 3 per cent on the €3.3 billion mortgage book at the end of 2011 from 1.7 per cent a year earlier.


This was below the industry average of 8.1 per cent last year, said Mr Healy, as NIB avoided high loan-to-value mortgages.
Click to expand...
NIB rates are very low for a number of reasons

Their maximum LTV was 80%
In particular they targeted switchers with LTVs less than 50%
They did not use mortgage brokers. Losses on the broker book is much higher
They were much more conservative (or "stingy" as one askaboutmoney user described it at the time) in the amount which they would lend
Because their tracker mortgage was such great value, they probably have a larger than average mortgage book.
I think that they pulled out of the market earlier than other lenders.

You will find the NIB LTV mortgage discussed on askaboutmoney in October 2006
 
KBC

Arrears of 90 days or more on KBC’s home loans rose to 12.6 per cent at the end of 2011 – which Mr Reynolds said was in line with the industry average – from 7.3 per cent a year earlier.

The bank has mortgages of about €13 billion, a share of about 10 per cent of the market.
Click to expand...

I understand that this is incorrect. The 13.6% refers to their total loan book including the commercial property lending which is much higher.



This information was provided in August

KBC's figures from yesterday's Irish Times

KBC has a loan book of €16.9 billion, 12.9 of which is residential.

8.8% of the €9.7 billion owner occupied homes are in arrears of 90 days or more (compared to 7.7% in Q1)

13.7% of buy to lets are non-performing (12.2%)
Click to expand...
Owner occupied home loans| 9.7 b
Buy to lets|3.2 b
Total residential|12.9
Commercial|4
Total loan book|16.9
 
PTSB's arrears higher than industry average

PTSB has just released a press statement

[FONT=&quot]At its meeting today the Board of Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings plc considered the amount of loan impairment provisions to be made by its banking business, permanent tsb bank, in respect of 2011. The provisions are now expected to be approximately €1.4 billion (€2010: €420m) for the year, with almost all of the expected increase attributable to the Irish residential mortgage loan book, due to the following:[/FONT] [FONT=&quot] [/FONT]

  • [FONT=&quot]a change in the assumption for the peak to trough decline in house prices to 55%, from 43% at the end of 2010,[/FONT]
  • [FONT=&quot]the move to provisioning for all cases over 90 days in arrears (from over 180 days) in line with revised Central Bank guidance, and[/FONT]
  • [FONT=&quot]a significant increase in the number of permanent tsb mortgage loan accounts greater than 90 days in arrears at the end of December 2011 at 11.5% of total cases (Dec 2010: 6.8%). This compares with total industry arrears of 9.2% at December 2011.[/FONT]
 
Bank of Scotland Ireland

On the personal loans front, 20pc of Lloyds £7bn mortgages are now classed as "impaired", up from 15pc at the half-year point.

Arrears of more than three months are running at 18pc of the value of the book[at 31 December 2011], up from 14pc at the end of last June.
Click to expand...

I presume that £7bn refers to around €8bn Irish. I also assume "personal loans" includes homes and buy to lets. Not sure if it includes other unsecured loans.
 
Summary of these figures

% of home loans in arrears over 90 days at 31 Dec 2011

|Accounts|Balances|SVR as of 31 Dec
National Irish Bank |3%|3%|4.5%
AIB | 5% |6.5%|3.05%
Bank of Ireland| 6%|7.4% |4%
[broken link removed]|9.2%|12.3%|
PTSB |12.1%|14.5%|6.1%
EBS |12.5%|16.6%|4.8%
The Central Bank tells us the number of accounts in arrears and the balances outstanding.
The percentage of the book in arrears is higher than the percentage of the accounts in arrears. This is because smaller accounts are less likely to be in arrears.

The PTSB Annual Report tells us both the number of cases over 90 days and the % of the book over 90 says.
AIB and BoI tells us only what % of the book is outstanding. I have estimated the accounts for AIB and BoI using the same proportion as the Central Bank's figures.
 
AIB has posted its [broken link removed]

From Page 112

|AIB|EBS
Total Residential Mortgages| €18,626|13,492
In arrears > 90 days|€1,212|€2,238
Balances|6.5%|16.6%
Estimated accounts|5%|12.5%
 
PTSB has published its detailed [broken link removed](I can't access it on its website, but that might be my internet connection. )

From page 15

Total residential mortgages|€18,740
In arrears >90 days|€2,710
Balance in arrears|14.5%
Arrears cases - number|16,919
Arrears cases - %|12.1%
 
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