Am I silly to worry about North Korea?

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oldnick

Registered User
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Having endured so much doom and gloom in the news in the last six years I've become somewhat inured to it .

But the news from Korea has began to concern me. Until today I regarded Kim's gibberings as exactly that. But I'm starting to feel a bit concerned.

It's not so much that there may be a nuclear war that I think likely, but more the political and especially the economic consequences that a deepening of hostilities will bring about.

Listening to the news about many expats seeking flights out of S.Korea reminds me one of the first shots in those disaster movies where matters quickly deteriorate.

Assuage me, someone.
 
This matter in N Korea has the possibility of escalating in a very short time frame,I can see him launching an attack on S Korea and almost immediately drawing fire from S Korea and USA in the form of a limited non nuclear strike.

Like all bullies this fat little wannabe will run with his tail betwixt his legs for assistance from China,none will be forthcoming,he will BS and bluster but without any appetite for escalation and this theatre will drift from headline Sky news on the half hour to an occasional mention within a few weeks.

Its likely that there will be a putsch and a collection of Generals will dispatch him by firing squad,televised of course and a military dictatorship will rule N.Korea and actively engage with UN et al to ensure sanctions are lifted.

Long answer short Nick,rest easy,this is just an exercise in jockeying for position by an inexperienced,idiotic,little despot who is so far out of his depth that its almost comical.
 
I don't know too much about North Korea other than it seems to be a state thriving on propaganda and unbelieveable self inflicted mourning (remember the recent state funeral). Like Knuttell, I think some kind of attack will be launched on South Korea and soon after the Yanks will move in as they did in Iraq.

The US economy could do with an injection of cash and another war in Asia could be the ticket.
 
Leper said:
a state thriving on propaganda and unbelieveable self inflicted mourning
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On that basis I presume there's a delegation of county councillors, say 40?, 50?, gone out there as part of a twinning committee :p - but are we western Koreans or are they eastern Irish??

I'd agree that normally war is an economic stimulus but after Dubya hamstrung the US so badly with the last wars I not sure the well has been replenished sufficiently to go again.
 
North Korea spends between one quarter and one third of its total state revenues on its military.
It has over nine million members (3.5 million militia and around 6 million ground, air and sea forces) and is the largest military organisation on earth.
Just because it is technologically backward and has limited medium range and no long range deployment capability doesn’t mean they couldn’t inflict massive damage on South Korea.
What it lacks in technology it makes up for in numbers. The DMZ between North and South is the largest mine field in the world. A ground offensive into the South would have to seen as a real and credible threat.
The North Korean navy wouldn’t last to the end of the first day. Their air force may be gone before that. The problem is that their ground based air defences are significant and so could provide cover for their ground forces from fighter and bomber attack, although missiles would get through.

Basically they wouldn’t win but they would inflict massive damage on South Korea.

They also have the capability to fire short range nuclear missiles at Seoul. That’s 10 million people in a relatively small space.
 
oldnick said:
Assuage me, someone.
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Although it is possible that the North will do something really stupid which will bring about a swift end to their whole misadventure, methinks that nothing will happen. The World Food Program will deliver some extra food for the starving masses, the North will suspend its sabre-rattling and tell its people that they have won a great victory.
 
michaelm said:
Although it is possible that the North will do something really stupid which will bring about a swift end to their whole misadventure, methinks that nothing will happen. The World Food Program will deliver some extra food for the starving masses, the North will suspend its sabre rattling and tell its people that it has won a great victory.
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I agree, as Purple also points out, to push for a War is a suicide mission, especially as they're trying to drag everyone around them into it.

It is probably a lot of posturing to get aid, maybe even some discussions on the UN Sanctions underway (though doubtful considering it's security council and even their friends China voted in favour).

To be fair, the best way to assauge your fear is to pop Team America onto the TV.
 
michaelm said:
There's no profit in it.
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Though some expert on the radio reckoned they wouldnt fancy western forces lapping up against their own border if North Korea was to fall.

Whether 'wouldnt fancy' translates to 'would back N Korea' is too far a stretch ..... (he conjectured while knowing practically nothing of the history or current personalities).
 
blueband said:
how do we know china wouldnt back them if push came to shove?
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China's (and to some extent Russia's) involvement in the UN Security Council is telling on this issue. They can and are the usual stumbling blocks to any sanctions or actions, thought they tend to abstain in most cases against their "friends", they do also veto.

However, not so much in the case of DPRK, maybe even the Chinese are a bit worried about the, well, plain old lunacy that they aren't comfortable aligning themselves too closely.
 
I'm just glad it's Obama in the White House and not Bush. Certainly worrying developments in a country that is so insular, brainwashed, with military might and the new guy untested and seemingly eager for attention. Probably seriously delusional and possible insane. Such are what begins wars unfortunately.
 
Bronte said:
I'm just glad it's Obama in the White House and not Bush. Certainly worrying developments in a country that is so insular, brainwashed, with military might and the new guy untested and seemingly eager for attention. Probably seriously delusional and possible insane. Such are what begins wars unfortunately.
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It is because O'Bama is in the WH that this nutter has the nerve to threaten to nuke the US.:(
 
Hello,

I'm actually hoping that China is going to try and help calm things down ... they are a major power in the geographic vacinity and may be considered a friend to North Korea - one of very few, I suspect.

While historically, the communists were considered almost the bad guys, by the west ... I think we've long since shook off this stigma and now respect nations based on how they conduct themselves on the international arena. China has certainly improved, from what we've all seen, in the past decade and the country's leadership doesn't want some idiot starting a war nearby for no good reason.

Ultimately, we've a young leader in North Korea trying to flex his muscles... lets just hope he's also capable of flexing his brain and realising when enough is enough ....

I must admit, this is one of the few occassions where I'm glad we've Enda as our leader .. he's far too busy ki$$ing butts on the international stage, to ever get us into a war with anyone ;)

Regards

Mr. Earl.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
It is because O'Bama is in the WH that this nutter has the nerve to threaten to nuke the US.:(
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Gladly take Obama any day over that semi literate redneck George jnr.

I am not in any way left leaning but if I were an American I couldn't vote Republican.
 
While historically, the communists were considered almost the bad guys, by the west ... I think we've long since shook off this stigma and now respect nations based on how they conduct themselves on the international arena. China has certainly improved, from what we've all seen, in the past decade and the country's leadership doesn't want some idiot starting a war nearby for no good reason.

Ultimately, we've a young leader in North Korea trying to flex his muscles... lets just hope he's also capable of flexing his brain and realising when enough is enough ....


It is just a pity that North Korea struggles so much with poverty a lot of which is probably unknown to us as aid agencies struggle a lot with access to communities ..... A friend of mine travelled there last year on behalf of an Irish aid agency and described awful conditions for people outside the capital..The article below is interesting..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/07/north-korea-mystery_n_1946294.html
 
MrEarl said:
Hello,

Ultimately, we've a young leader in North Korea trying to flex his muscles... lets just hope he's also capable of flexing his brain and realising when enough is enough ....

.
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It would also be a good thing if the little twat paid some attention to the massive problems of poverty and inequality in his country. A friend travelled there recently and was appalled at the extreme poverty he saw in the country-side. This article says it all really

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/07/north-korea-mystery_n_1946294.html
 
He, Kim, was educated in Switzerland apparently and according to the papers here he is perceived as a weak character. What would worry me about that is the people behind him who maybe channelling their agenda.

Im with oldnick on this one....
 
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