100% Mortgage

My point exactly.

If people looked at reality rather than headlines, there would be far fewer people in the mess they are in now.

No point jumping on a bandwagon just because one passes your door - do your own thinking...

There are VI's on the upside, VI's on the downside and both sides will spout nonsence on any given day - make an informed choice based on your own financial circumatances.

Regarding the OP - If they got approval for the mortgage you mention, they must have very secure employment and a very healthy credit profile. Perhaps they have more money than they are letting on, or are not telling you they whole story regarding their finances?
 
whats the point - half the people will tell you your doomed, the other half will say things are rosey and you'll have 20 pages of people arguing over stuff they have in reality, no clue about....
 
Erm...If the doom mongers were wrong all along, then we wouldn't be in recession now. And if the the doom mongers were right all along, then the boom mongers were wrong all along.

In other words, whatever way you cut it the doom mongers have been more right (or less wrong) than the boom mongers. So I don't buy this "a plague on all your houses" attitude. One side is in the process of being shown to have been fundamentally wrong in their assessment of the housing situation (it was not a new paradigm, Ireland is not different, it was nothing but a massive asset bubble), while the other looks to have been correct in deriding all these theories. Making out now that the two sides are as bad as each other is not fair at all. It's also kinda intellectially lazy and blocks grown-up efforts to realistically assess what the hell has gone on.

I will grant that it is early days and things could turn around, but I for one cannot see a recovery in the general economy or in housing for several years.
 
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Well to be honest Im really starting to see the doom mongers point ! Starting to look very scary out there, 580 jobs in a well known insurance company etc, I work in a company and a lot people are cashing in their policies cos they need the money it may not be all fabrication.... I do think that we will hit a low and level out again, the country had gone mad the last while !!
 
Predicting something that is cyclical isn't rocket science.
No economy can grow at that pace indefinately. Even China/India are struggling at the moment.
Recessions weed out the chancers, and the party starts again....

Pity a few people lost the run of themselves, but many did very well.
 
Unemployment expected to hit 7% by end of year, not like the 16% it was during the 80's. As Cowan said the fundamentals of the economy are sound, we just have to tighten the purse strings and ride it out for a year or two.
The biggest problem right now are the global credit crunch and rocketing oil prices and these are things which are outside Ireland's control.
 
I think he means that we have a dynamic and well educated work force, a business orientated outlook and no mountain of government debt.
 
fantastic declaration of a winner in the doom mongers versus boom mongers war from treehouse. Say I predict house prices will rise in the future. If they fall 10% each year for the next 10 years and bounce back 20% in 2019, will I have been right all along????
Facts are cycles will happen, there will be ups and there will be downs. some will get lucky and some won't
 
DerKaiser said:
fantastic declaration of a winner in the doom mongers versus boom mongers war from treehouse. Say I predict house prices will rise in the future. If they fall 10% each year for the next 10 years and bounce back 20% in 2019, will I have been right all along????
Facts are cycles will happen, there will be ups and there will be downs. some will get lucky and some won't
Click to expand...


Park the patronising tone dude. Your "ah sure it's all swings and roundabouts" attitude was precisely the nonsensical, unthinking guff I was deriding. It is also an attitude that will retard any attempt to critically analyse what's happened.

Yes, cycles happen. You don't need to be Warren Buffet to know that. But the last 10 years in Ireland were not a natural part of the normal economic cycle. They were a bubble and a boom. If you are suggesting we will see the same thing again in 7 years time (the natural length of an economic cycle, as a hot-shot economist like you must know), then your prognosis is perpetual boom and bust. Boom and bust followed by boom and bust is not an economic cycle.
 
I think what rational 'boom mongers' are saying is that in fact a boom did happen and all the while every year there was a constant airing of 'this is all going pear shaped next year' by the 'doom mongers'. The facts are that we had a good 10-15 year period of prosperity and I dare say many people have done very well for themselves and it now looks like we are in a down time. I understand the reaction of those that felt this was always coming but my own thoughts would be to make hay during the good times and work harder again during the bad times.
 
yes economies are cyclical. However a binge on cheap credit inflating average house prices to 8 or 9 times that average industrial wage is NOT a normal cycle that will be repeated in the future. The reason why doom mongers were waiting for the economy to implode was this very reason.
 
my advice would be that they should buy if they want to. If I really wanted to buy I wouldn't put my life on hold waiting for abnormal cycles to end. I think even those who are saying hold off because prices will fall could not reasonably say whether pricing will be more appropriate in 6 months or whether it will take years
 
House prices fell by over 1% in May. That's an average saving of 3 and half grand. Better in their pocket than someone elses. What's the rush?
 
People tend to want to move on with their lives. Shanegl's comment on the 1% saving by holding off makes sense of course, but I'm guessing the uncertainty doesn't suit everyone. Home buying in particular is an emotional process so sometimes when people have their heart set on buying a home (especially with someone else) then it is very hard to change their mind by using the probability of a further 3,500 saving in the next 6 months or whatever. My point being it is a purely financial decision, so i would advise letting them make up their own minds now that you have presented them with the facts as you know them.
 
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