1,778 landlords have left the market over the last three years

Discussion in 'Housing and mortgage arrears - policy issues' started by Brendan Burgess, 13 Dec 2018.

  1. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    The RTB has a report out today, but I can't find it on its website.

    According to RTE

    Today there are 1,778 fewer landlords than there were three years ago, while tenancies have declined by 8,829.

    It's not very useful without knowing how many landlords were in the market three years ago.

    Likewise if 1,788 landlords owning one property have left but 10 landlords owning 500 properties each have entered then the supply of accommodation has risen.

    Brendan
     
  2. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    Last edited: 13 Dec 2018
    Here is the press release

    Rents continue to rise but at a slower pace according to RTB Rent Index

    • The RTB Q3 2018 Rent Index shows rents continue to trend upwards, with national rent increasing to €1,122 in Q3 2018, an increase of €78 since Q3 2017
    • The average rent for Dublin was €1,620 representing an increase of €141 from Q3 2017
    • The results indicate that Rent Pressure Zones are slowing the pace of rent increases for existing tenancies
    • Numbers of landlords falling despite high rental prices and record demand

    Thursday, 13 December 2018: According to the latest Rent Index from the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB), in the July-September period (Q3) of 2018, the standardised national average rent was €1,122 per month, up from €1,044 one year earlier (€78 increase). Conversely, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, rental price inflation dropped to 1.9% in Q3 2018, down from 3.6% in Q2 2018.


    The RTB Rent Index, which is compiled in conjunction with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), is the authoritative guide to the Irish rental market. The Index shows that rent increases for existing tenancies (5.4%) were lower than those for new tenancies (8%) year-on-year. This indicates that Rent Pressure Zones are having a braking effect on the level of the increase.


    However, although rents are now at a record high, and the Irish rental market is experiencing unprecedented demand, the number of landlords is falling with a decline of 8,829 tenancies and 1,778 fewer landlords than in 2015.


    Commenting on the latest Rent Index results, Rosalind Carroll, Director of the Residential Tenancies Board said: “Affordability still remains an issue for the rental market with continued economic, employment and population growth contributing to rising demand across the country. We can also see rents across the country have continued to increase year-on- year.


    The rate of rent inflation slowed this quarter somewhat, and which we will continue to monitor in the months ahead. The importance of strong protections for tenants is underlined by the fact that the pace of rent increase under existing tenancies is well behind that of new tenancies, which shows us that Rent Pressure Zones are working much better within existing tenancies, but there is still more to do in respect of new tenancies.



    At the same time, it is a matter of deep concern that the number of landlords continues to decrease. If we are to meet demand and ensure a well-functioning rental sector, then we need more landlords and different types of landlords to offer market options. With many landlords leaving, it is increasing strain and pressure and this must be addressed.



    Unsurprisingly, Dublin is experiencing the most acute rent pressures with fewer than 15% of tenancies agreed at less than €1,000 per month, as compared to 70% elsewhere in the country. We can also see the Dublin rental sector is dominated by apartments (73%) as compared to less than one-in-two elsewhere.

    This demonstrates the need for the sector to continue to be monitored closely. It will be important that the new legislation coming into effect in 2019, equips the RTB with sufficient powers to investigate and apply sanctions where there are contraventions to the rent restrictions in Rent Pressure Zones and that these powers can be implemented effectively.”


    Dublin’s rental market continues to be the largest in the country in Q3 2018, accounting for nearly two-in-five tenancies (72%) that were registered with the RTB. As of Q3 2018, the standardised average rent for Dublin stood at €1,620, up from €1,479 one year earlier. This represents an increase of €141 euro on the standardised average monthly rent over a 12 month period or nearly a €12 increase per month.


    Second highest rents in Q3 2018 were in Galway City at €1,187 per month. Cork City standardised average rents stood at €1,172 for Q3 2018, rents in Limerick City were €928 and rents in Waterford City were €638. On an annualised basis, rents in Limerick City have been growing most rapidly at 11.8% in Q3 2018.

    The data is reported in the RTB’s Q3 2018 Rent Index report published today. The report is produced in conjunction with the ESRI and is based on 25,448 new tenancies registered with the RTB in the same quarter.


    New vs Existing Tenancies

    • Standardised average rent for new tenancies was €1,208 a month and for existing tenancies was €956, compared to €1190 and €936 respectively in Q2.
    • Year-on-year growth for new tenancies was 8% as compared to 5.4% for existing, compared to 8.4% and 5.0% in Q2.
    • One-in-five registered tenancies in Q3 2018 was an existing tenancy (i.e. leases that have been renewed after 4/6 years).
    Market Insights

    • Tenancies are lasting longer with a higher proportion of properties (25%) renting for over 12 months. In Q3 2018 approximately one in four tenancies lasted over a year. This trend highlights the increased importance of the rental sector.
    • Dublin and the Greater Dublin Area accounted for 45% of all tenancies with 55% in the rest of the country.
    • In total nearly two-in-five new tenancies registered were in Dublin highlighting the concentration of the rental market in the capital.
    • The analysis also shows that in terms of the number of occupants, one or two occupants were in the majority of properties. Since Q4 of 2017, a slight decline in the shares of properties occupied by three or more people can be observed.
    A summary of the figures from the report are below. To access the full Rent Index Report Q3 2018 findings and supporting info-graphic, you can download the information via the links provided:

    Rent Index Results for Dublin

    • Standardised average rents for Dublin as a whole stood at €1,620 (€141) within the Dublin market for Q3 2018 and €1,620 up from €1,595 in Q2 2018.
    • Dublin growth accelerated to 9.5% year on year, up from 8.9% in Q2 2018.
    • This is compares to rent highest in Dublin City and stood at €1.583 on Q3 2018.
    • Dublin growth driven by apartments, which saw annual growth of 11.7% compared to 6.5% for houses.
    • The quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Dublin was 1.6% in Q3 2018. This represents a decrease from the 4.4% rate in Q2 2018.
    Greater Dublin Area (Meath, Kildare, Wicklow)

    • To provide a comparison to the Dublin area, results are presented for the Greater Dublin Area excluding Dublin (GDA).[1]
    • The standardised average rent for the GDA (excluding Dublin) stood at €1,149 up from €1,079 (€70 increase) year-on-year.
    • The quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the GDA (excluding Dublin) was 2.1% in Q3 2018, an acceleration from 1.8% in Q2 2018. On a year-on-year basis, GDA (excluding Dublin) rents were up 6.5%; this represents an increase from 5.4% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2018.
    • To capture rental pressures in the rest of the country, a Rent Index is presented for the rest of the counties outside the GDA.
    Rest of the country

    • The standardised average rent for outside the GDA stood at €859 up from €806 year-on-year.
    • The quarter-on-quarter growth rate for the rest of the country was 4.3% in Q3 2018. On a year-on-year basis, rents outside the GDA were up 6.5%.
    • Second highest rents in Q3 2018 were in Galway City at €1,187 per month. Cork City standardised average rents stood at €1,172 for Q3 2018, rents in Limerick City were €928 and rents in Waterford City were €638.
    • Galway City grew at the slowest rate of the five cities at 1.3% your-on-year in Q3 2018.
    • However, rents in Limerick City have been growing most rapidly at 11.8% on an annual basis in Q3 2018. Rents in Waterford City grew 10%year-on-year in Q3 2018.
    • In the present quarter, it is noteworthy that three of the five cities experienced double digit year-on-year rental price growth.
     
    Last edited: 13 Dec 2018
  3. Seagull

    Seagull Frequent Poster

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    Current government policy seems like a deliberate attempt to drive small landlords out of the market. If they want more and varied landlords, they need to change the model. In particular, thr RTB needs to make it easier to get non-paying tenants out. A large landlord with several hundred units can afford to carry several non-paying tenant. A single unit landlord can wind up on the verge of bankruptcy courtesy of a non-paying tenant.
     
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  4. The Horseman

    The Horseman Frequent Poster

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    Exactly, at least with small landlords there is a "personal" touch and some leeway can be given. Forget it if you think a corporate landlord will give any leeway at all.

    I am so glad I am not a renter nor are any of my family.

    I think the rental sector is heading for a whole heap of issues. If you think it is bad now, wait until the corporates control the market and have the financial power to take on legislation that the Govt introduces.
     
  5. elcato

    elcato Moderator

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    Really ? Per'aps 'Ercule can explain how an index that covers the whole country can deduce that the RPZs are working. Pure dribble ....
     
  6. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    To put that figure in context, there were 313,000 registered tenancies in 2017 (per the RTB annual report).

    It's probably stating the obvious that this report is a lagging indicator that may be materially understating the current position.
     
  7. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    Thanks Sarenco.
    I presume that is a stock figure and that there 313,000 leases in place in 2017?

    If I leave and they relet it, then the number of tenancies does not change?

    Brendan
     
  8. Leo

    Leo Moderator

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    According to the RTE coverage, a report commissioned by the RTB back in 2014 predicted this would happen, yet they pushed ahead and are now looking to further turn the screw. It stinks of politically motivated meddling with no real care what the long term outcome will be.
     
  9. elcato

    elcato Moderator

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    Here lies the platform to lies (@tm elcato2018). If a tenant leaves and a landlord either moves in/does not re-let/sells, the tenancy will not be removed unless the landlord notifies the RTB or until the 4 year period is reached. Can you see anything that might be set to help out the great defenders of tenants figures there ? So the idea of current tenant increases are lower is flawed as a result as well.
     
  10. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    Hi Elcato

    So the number of tenancies at 313,000 is overstated?

    But there are probably other tenancies which are not registered.

    Brendan
     
  11. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    The RTB used to be quite chaotic in how us registered landlords were on their lists. So I personally wouldn't trust their figures.

    By the way I heard you on Newstalk this morning, some clip where you said the homeless should be offered houses in Dundalk I think.

    Apparently people are refusing to go rent in private accommodation as they will be in HAP and instead they want to be housed by the state. I think that's what they meant but I only heard a couple of minutes of it. Meanwhile workers have zero choice but to rent from private landlords.
     
  12. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    If I didn't know better I could have sworn that statement was like something that they guys in DAFT compile.

    I might also think that it's so convuluted that it's designed to actually say nothing at all.
     
  13. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    I follow the rental market in two cities. Which means I check every few months what is available to rent at what cost to compare to my rent. I've been doing this for years. I can assure you that there is practically zilch out there to rent. Literally a handful. Whereas in the past there were so many properties it was difficult to check them all. I have never ever in the last two decades seen anything like the current landlord market. I would hate to be a person looking for housing to rent currently.
     
  14. LS400

    LS400 Frequent Poster

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    There are so many reasons why we are where we are today in this dysfunctional rental market, and one of them is the lack of experience within an organization calling them selves RTB, (and for that matter Government housing policy).

    Then, this very organization have the audacity to bring out a report which says a lot without actually saying anything of value to LLs or Tenants, as though they were foremost in their thoughts. Pathetic really.

    I know very well why I now have reservations about continuing to provide rental accommodation in this Country, its the lack of support from the very same pontificating Author of said report.

    What would I do if I had the Authority to make change? Make 4 changes.

    1) A landlord who lets an unfit property will pay the hotel accommodation costs until rectified. And I mean followed up through the courts like a speeding fine would be chased down, not drawn out for months.

    2) A tenant who refuses to pay, or trashes a place will be chased down through their RSI number and followed up again through the courts. On social welfare, no problem, payments will be deducted until cleared. That would make someone think twice about wrecking someones property..

    3) Irregardless of your earnings, A standard rate of 12.5% tax should only be paid on the first €1000 of monthly rental income, and there after, the higher rate should come into force on the complete amount.

    I can guarantee there will be plenty of €1000 properties to let.

    4) Disband the RTB NOW, It will never be taken seriously.

    Im sorry if you paid €400k for your apt, and now need someone to pay your mortgage, thats not how the rental marked worked before. It worked because property owners specifically bought a property to rent out, not to see a fast buck, but went in for the long haul.


    Paying up to €2000 plus/month for a two bed apt anywhere in Dublin is insane, and need to be looked at by individuals who have experience in the rental markets, not Ministers who feel they have to, just do something, no matter of the ramifications it inflicts on both property owners and tenants.

    We have gone too far into this mess to go back to reality, and now, need to find a way out with those who have imagination, and unless you have experience in running a business, and not just career politicians, we will continue with the destruction of the rental market.
     
  15. AlbacoreA

    AlbacoreA Frequent Poster

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    When looking at the LL figures and tenancies you should also look at the net immigration and population growth over time.
     
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  16. AlbacoreA

    AlbacoreA Frequent Poster

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    For example...

    Population growth of 64,500 in the year to April 2018, the largest annual increase since 2008

    https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews...mentpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2018/
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/irelands-population-growth-five-times-eu-average-472747.html

    Which puts these figures into perspective.

    and also

    The figures indicate that on average fewer than 10,000 new homes were built annually over the last seven years despite the ongoing housing crisis.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business...tated-by-nearly-60-cso-figures-show-1.3530388

     
  17. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    So you want to tax landlords out of business.

    Rent 1000 - 12.5% - €125, and then 50% on 1K = 500. So you have 375 monthly to pay the mortgage, repair it etc.
     
  18. blured

    blured Registered User

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    I assume he meant the first €1,000 each month - so €12k per annum at 12.5% with the top rate on anything above that
     
  19. LS400

    LS400 Frequent Poster

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    I dont follow how that is taxing them out of Business. They are already paying top rate of tax on all of the rental income. This hasn't changed in what I suggest. Im suggesting a lower rate of tax on the income up to €12k.

    I let a 1 bet Apt in Dublin @ €1100 for example. earning €13200 income from the tenants. I would reduce this to €12k saving the tenant €1200 per year and as a property owner I would benefit in a healthier return on my investment which in turn would encourage me to re-invest again.

    This scenario could be applied to a 2 bed property with a ceiling rent of €1500 and so on.

    You can split the hairs to suit any argument, these figures are not written in stone, but, to garner some thinking on how this situation could be improved. Look, LLs are factoring in the taxable pay, on their rental income, and Tenants are the ones being hit hardest.

    The Government would see this as lost revenue, but looking at the loss of 1800 LLs, who provided accommodation and homeless situation that we have today, its really a case of penny wise pound foolish.
    You put those same 1800 LLs who had One or Two or even Three rental properties back into the rental market, try telling me that wouldn't have helped where we are today.

    With the mindset that we have in Government, (and I really not trying to be dismissive of them) this problem is not going to go away. I accept they are not looking to destroy the rental market, but, this is exactly whats happening without radical thinking.

    Deal with taxable income, And,
    Deal with non paying Tenants and Property Vandalism.
     
  20. iamaspinner

    iamaspinner Frequent Poster

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    I don't know if this has been covered or if it is significant enough to skew the figures.

    I have just checked my address in the RTB register and to my surprise it is listed, which I suppose means there is a tenancy registered to it. The problem is that I bought the apartment more than a year ago and I live in it. I know it was rented before. It is the same with other properties nearby which I know have been sold and are now occupied by the owners.

    How are tenancies updated in the register?

    It makes me wonder how reliable any of the stats in their report are.
     
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