Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[MugsGame]

Can posters please avoid one line meaningless answers and unnecessary swearing. Such posts will be deleted as they contribute nothing to the debate.

Posters who require too much moderation will be banned.

Update: leave the moderation to the moderators. If someone breaks the posting guidelines, it doesn't mean you have to respond in kind. Particularly problematic posts should be reported rather than responded to.

 

[AJ1]

Heard the guy on tv3 last night during the break in Emmerdale say 'if your depressed with the irish property market tune into out overseas property show at ...'. Sentiment has definitely changed!

 

[whizzbang]

Heard the guy on tv3 last night during the break in Emmerdale say 'if your depressed with the irish property market tune into out overseas property show at ...'. Sentiment has definitely changed!

there was a Rabo direct radio ad along those lines as well.. "Missed the boat on the property bubble, didn't get an SSIA, don't talk to me about investments.." or something similar.

 

[JayDub]

there's one there right now! [broken link removed]

I was thinking of taking the kids to Moyross on Halloween, that should scare the bejaysus out of them LOL

 

[zac]

Why do you think it was luck?

Buying undervalued revenue creating assets, whether they are equities or property ensures that risk is minimised while potential gain is maximised. I just don't get the "you have to take a risk to make a good return" thing.

Property markets are cyclical. Right now the Irish property market provides maximum risk for minimum reward (if any) - not a good buy! And it's not about timing the market, it's about analysing your potential investment on a fundamental basis.

because you said that you dint take risk, that implies you risk was zero, maybe i dint get what you were saying.

"Minimising risk" and "No risk" are not the same thing.

 

[zac]

whathome: "Why do you think it was luck? Buying undervalued revenue creating assets, whether they are equities or property ensures that risk is minimised while potential gain is maximised. I just don't get the "you have to take a risk to make a good return" thing. "

Hmmm....talk about 20/20 hindsight. 'Undervalued revenue creating assets' in the form of equities or property have risks attaching no matter what they are. Sure, some might be a 'safer bet' than others, but you were still at the mercy of many factors outside of your control (market forces, economic shocks, fraud, incompetence etc.). You may have done well but I wouldn't fool yourself or us that you were not taking risks.

yes, valuation is relative. when an asset was aquired, buyer thought it was undervalued, seller thought it was overvalued, (provided they were value investors). not recognising risk and being profitable is luck in my opinion.

 

[treora]

Well in my estate there are two empty houses that have never been occupied. Then there are the 4 that people are trying to sell, one of which has been sitting at Sale Agreed for 6 months. I've no trouble believing there are 275,000 empty homes many of which are in high demand areas. For the record I live in Donnybrook in Cork, and a house in my area goes for 385k. So it's not like these are empty homes in the back of Leitrim or anything.

In my estate* there are 56 houses(semi and terrace), 8 up for sale, 5 unoccupied and a 50:50 split on renters in the rest of them. The longest one has been on sale for 5 months, the shortest for 1 week and nothing has sold in that period. The average AMV on myhome for them is €500,000.
*between Pheonix Park and Smithfield

Separately
What do those investors who have managed to sell up do with their money and how will it effect the property market? Are you, investing in local business and thus supporting wage rises, sticking it in the bank, shares, agri-land banks in Ireland, property abroad, in the matress or supporting an Irish Junta to tick Cowan into submission ?

 

[zac]

Risk - reward
Junk bonds are riskier than Government bonds from developed countries. As such they tend pay a higher rate of interest. That is, you take on the risk, you make more money if it works out.
Starting a business is riskier than working fulltime, but you'll potentially earn a _lot_ more. Running an internet startup is a lot riskier than a corner store. YouTube sold to Google for 1.6 billion...

The entire insurance industry is based on this principle ;-)

Let me clarify that I agree that property is overvalued in Ireland right now, and is not a good investment. However, if you were a bear over the last 10 years you would have missed out on the biggest property bull run in the states history! Not a recipe for creating "untold" wealth. It's easy to sit and do nothing. Taking decisive action to get involved, involves taking risks. Some of the bears on here have suggested that they will try and make money in what they are calling as a bear market - but most will sit it out (again!) I suspect!

In response to my poll on this thread where I asked bears to come forward and tell whether they have sold a property and now renting or have reduced their property holdings this year, there were 7 people who did so on this forum. That is 7 out of whatever number view this thread(excluding those who dint respond and couple of those who took offense and said they dont want to prove their credentials ).

 

[Open_Window]

there's one there right now! [broken link removed]

Hang on a sec, this limerick phenomenon has to be than a MoyRoss "effect".

What is so radically different their that they are at complete odds with the rest of Ireland.

Any more link to very deflated Limerik prices anyone?

Reason, demogrpahically why, economically why, politically why and so on.... I am not familiar with that region but how could an area in Ireland be so out of wack. I know that previous link was to a former council house, but those too in Dublin have enjoyed massive rise is prices.

Someone said it before here, and I'll say it again Limierick look like a warning as to where the market can go, were Ireland could be again, so we need to know how it has happned there becuase it should indicate were it is most likely to appear again or ways to avoid it.

 

[whathome]

not recognising risk and being profitable is luck in my opinion.

absolutely agree on this, if you're profitable without realising that you were taking risks - then you could be benefiting from luck.
That's why I don't take risks - would hate to rely on luck!

best of luck to you zac

 

[zac]

Quote:
Originally Posted by soma http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=305988#post305988
From memory, whathome bought again because he is utterly whipped by Mrs whathome

whathome:
Exactly

another reason for not to expect mass exodus from the market, plenty of whips around.

 

[zac]

absolutely agree on this, if you're profitable without realising that you were taking risks - then you could be benefiting from luck.
That's why I don't take risks - would hate to rely on luck!

best of luck to you zac

cheers but I believe luck is a nice thing to have even if you recognise your risk.

 

[whathome]

another reason for not to expect mass exodus from the market, plenty of whips around.

Well we sold two and bought one - couldn't get approval on nohome for the whathomes.

cheers but I believe luck is a nice thing to have even if you recognise your risk.

Unfortunately I've never been lucky - apart from meeting Mrs WH

So .... anyone househunting this weekend?

 

[gearoidmm]

Hang on a sec, this limerick phenomenon has to be than a MoyRoss "effect".

What is so radically different their that they are at complete odds with the rest of Ireland.

Any more link to very deflated Limerik prices anyone?

Reason, demogrpahically why, economically why, politically why and so on.... I am not familiar with that region but how could an area in Ireland be so out of wack. I know that previous link was to a former council house, but those too in Dublin have enjoyed massive rise is prices.

Someone said it before here, and I'll say it again Limierick look like a warning as to where the market can go, were Ireland could be again, so we need to know how it has happned there becuase it should indicate were it is most likely to appear again or ways to avoid it.

Moyross in Limerick is by no means a barometer for the market. It is an economically disadvantaged area with a reputation for antisocial behaviour and harrassment of residents. It was there that the kids had a petrol bomb thrown into their car earlier this year (apparently this was their idea of fun - throwing petrol bombs at each other - no joke).

There are very special circumstances there that do not apply in the rest of Limerick.

 

[Marie]

The NCB report is equally based on a lot of assumptions. They assume that life expectancy will continue to rise, they assume that fertility will remain at current levels. Interestingly, after 2020 they expect immigration to fall to 0.

The problem, as I see it, is that the predictions, as such, will stand or fall on those assumptions. In other words, the report is in a nice pdf, but it is still speculation per se. I suppose that makes it no different to the property market in itself.

What interests me is the general short termist view of looking at things here. Property doesn't crash overnight. It might crash over seven or eight months, and the cracks might be visible for a long while. But what interests me is that initially, people who called time on untramelled growth were called to provide "proof" whereas people who don't believe that a correction is likely or possible don't have to provide any proof at all, or at least, don't have to provide the same level of proof. NCB's report is an indication of this. Many people have doubts about the property market because it has gone over and above average affordability. Not because they are playing guessing games with the economy and future population. What we have now is not a long term situation, and unfortunately, rising salaries will not buy us out of this situation without also buying us a lot of unemployment.

Ultimately, the property market comes down to brass tacks. Who has the money, and who hasn't. The banks are running out of options to give people more money to buy property. I'll be interested to see what they come up with to get over short term affordability problems since they've run out of 100% and interest only and 35 and 40 year terms as options. There isn't much left except very dangerous games in a rising interest rate environment.

Not quite! In the UK newbuild apartments are advertised on the basis of "Pay£99 and move in!". Free kitchens, free broadband access, all legal and estate agency fees waived etc etc...........you name it you have it as long as you sign up! The developers can't give them away - nobody want's them! Meanwhile the Chancellor of the Exchequer goes on air to announce the government's commitment to building more 'affordable' housing (translation - buy the unsold stocks off the developers and bail out the already-rich through the taxes of the already-poor who couldn't afford to buy the houses in the first place!!!) There is a looooooooooong way to go in this game!

 

[thewatcher]

Hang on a sec, this limerick phenomenon has to be than a MoyRoss "effect".

What is so radically different their that they are at complete odds with the rest of Ireland.

Any more link to very deflated Limerik prices anyone?

Reason, demogrpahically why, economically why, politically why and so on.... I am not familiar with that region but how could an area in Ireland be so out of wack. I know that previous link was to a former council house, but those too in Dublin have enjoyed massive rise is prices.

Someone said it before here, and I'll say it again Limierick look like a warning as to where the market can go, were Ireland could be again, so we need to know how it has happned there becuase it should indicate were it is most likely to appear again or ways to avoid it.

These aera's are a different animal altogether,"outsiders" cannot purchase in these area's because you will not be accepted unless you already know people living in the aera.Any outsiders foolish enough to buy,the first cross word you have with anyone in the estate,from that day on your cards are marked.The same applies in certain parts of west dublin also.
Prices are that low,because nobody will take the peoperty off you bar the locals.These properties are not a barometer of the market in general !.

 

[bearishbull]

These aera's are a different animal altogether,"outsiders" cannot purchase in these area's because you will not be accepted unless you already know people living in the aera.Any outsiders foolish enough to buy,the first cross word you have with anyone in the estate,from that day on your cards are marked.The same applies in certain parts of west dublin also.
Prices are that low,because nobody will take the peoperty off you bar the locals.These properties are not a barometer of the market in general !.

It would be an ok investment if you could get a local(single mother and child) on rent allowance paying 600euro a month into it.There is talk of governement doing regeneration in like of moyross. The cost of building such a house would exceed the price its on sale for. Limerick property does seem relatively cheap even outside these areas, where else in ireland would you get this property for 1million [broken link removed]=

It has been for sale for months too.

 

[miju]

one of the dublin "equivalents" to moyross would be finglas south where you can buy a 3 bedroom house for about €155k , nice price but you wouldn't really wanna live there (which is saying something seeing as from one of the new finglas estates )

 

[dochasach]

Moyross in Limerick is by no means a barometer for the market. It is an economically disadvantaged area with a reputation for antisocial behaviour and harrassment of residents. It was there that the kids had a petrol bomb thrown into their car earlier this year (apparently this was their idea of fun - throwing petrol bombs at each other - no joke).

There are very special circumstances there that do not apply in the rest of Limerick.

Shouldn't there be a continuum where areas which are almost as far from jobs and almost as dodgy as Moyross might have values somewhere between 55,000 and 550,000? There are dodgey Dublin neighborhoods where a house would go for 5-10 times the price. Are you really 500-1000% less likely to be stabbed, shot or petrol bombed in Dublin?

My above average industrial wage purchasing power gives me these choices:

A crime-ridden neighborhood near Dublin, where the jobs are... or
A long commute in a country with one of the highest per/km traffic fatality rates in Europe.

This is yet another reason why I choose to rent and live. "Owners" who choose to fork out more dead money in interest than I'll pay in 20 years of renting might say rent money is deader than interest money, but I'd rather pay dead money than be dead.

 

[Cheeky Offer]

Indo. today and Dan McLaughlin:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial]"However, the only thing analysts all agree on is that rates will rise to 3.5pc at the ECB's meeting on December 2. "Our view is still that rates will peak at that level - but the risks have moved to the upside given the strength of the global economy," said Dan McLaughlin, chief economist at Bank of Ireland."

Now, from the same article the international commentators say the following:

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial]"Ulrike Kastens, economist at Sal. Oppenheim in Cologne, Germany, said: "We expect an interest rate increase in December and two additional steps in the coming year. By the end of 2007, the interest rate will probably be 4pc.""

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial]""We expect the ECB to continue raising rates to at least 4pc next year," said Michael Taylor, analyst at Lombard Street Research in London. "Their concerns about sustained money and credit growth are likely to be more important than the impact of January's VAT hike on the German economy.""

So, what does Dan know the international commentators don't?

I am looking in Dublin at the minute and will be making offers at up to €100,000 below ask. Confidence is gone. No-one believes the spin anymore. Game Over.
[/FONT]